Saturday 4:00 AM

This is quite the Cribbage Catastrophe on Fourth Street, a superlative puzzle by scottcrib. We need a Dozen Points as Pone, and in the process, we can only afford to 'give up' Four Holes or LESS to the Dealer during the pegging.

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After (A A 5 5) and Toss (A Q), we have Four Cuts (9999) that will deliver us enough points for the Victory whether we can peg or not, as long as we can then prevent the Dealer from pegging Five Holes. We also have Two Cuts (55) that yield Ten Points. Let's see if the other ideas can do better.

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After Keep (A A A 5) and Toss (5 Q), we have Nine Cuts (A, 8888, 9999) that will deliver us enough points for the Victory whether we can peg or not, as long as we can then prevent the Dealer from pegging Five Holes.

Starting with Six Points, we might need to peg up to Six Holes after Sixteen Cuts (2222, 3333, 4444, 6666). But after Twenty-One Cuts (55, 7777, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQ, KKKK) we just need to peg Four Holes. Therefore, we found a BETTER solution, but is it the BEST?

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After Keep (A 5 5 Q) and Toss (A A), we have Twenty-Five Cuts (4444, 55, 9999, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQ, KKKK) that yield Ten Points or more, and Five of these (55, QQQ) give us enough to go out whether we can peg or not, as long as we can then prevent the Dealer from pegging Five Holes. This is starting to sound like a broken record.

It's not quite as tragic as "Sophie's Choice," but it's no easy decision deciding which of these ideas we should 'kiss good-bye' and abandon in the darkness of night.

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With any of these Discard Choices, after the nearly 9% chance 'Special Case' of a Jack Cut, the Dealer now only needs to peg Three Holes, and we would still have to peg either Two Holes or Four Holes in order to 'cover' the distance. The occurrence of a Jack Cut affects the three ideas in slightly different ways, but our Pegging Strategy becomes very clear in any instance.

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Let's Toss (A A) today, because even though Toss (5 Q) has more "Instant Winner" Cuts, the Toss (A A) idea has far more Cut Cards that give us Ten Points, and we should have a reasonable chance to peg Two Holes with either Hand. In fact, Keep (A A A 5) might have trouble 'launching' the Count up toward Thirty-One, while Keep (A 5 5 Q) gets us up there much more readily and comfortably.

After the King Cut, we have Ten Points, and we need to peg Two Holes. I sure wish we had more than one Ace to peg (just kidding, I think). Who knows, we may end up Self-PAIRING our 5 Cards for the WIN! Let's lead the Ace, since the Dealer might respond with a 9 Card. Aren't we clever?! 😻

This is quite an educational Cribbage Endgame Pegging Battle, especially after a Jack Cut! It will be sad if we get to Hole 120 and "run out of gas" or if we peg enough, but the Dealer pegs out, but that's the way the Cribbage Cookie Crumbles, Colleen! 🥀

Saturday 4:34 AM

Choosing bold offense as must win with this deal, JQCT has done the work; holding A-5-5-Q offers the best chances of chalking up a victor. Lead the Ace as it often results in a 9 response. That's a bit more unpredictable in end-game situations although still the best we can do. Considered no other discards needing 12 to win. Dealer averages 3.5 pegs, and n/d has to take any two offered at any point.

Saturday 4:57 AM

Got to keep the fives for X-5 cuts. Ace lead , Queen lead will probably have an off play. dec

Saturday 4:59 AM

No way as Pone to play the three Aces back to back to back.

Cribbage Pro Scrimmage
9th Nov 2024
🏆Score: 121 to 106
🌋SP: 1635
📅Streak: 4
https://www.cribbagepro.net/scrimmage/301/3333658/1

Discards:
1. A-7
2. 7-K
3. A-6
4. 2-J
5. 7-Q
6. 2-K
7. 3-10
8. A-Q
9. J-Q (didn't need the points)

Saturday 5:37 AM

Toss the Aces and try to survive the pegging. Is this a case of leading a 5?

Saturday 5:46 AM

Saturday 5:58 AM

Just an echo today

Saturday 6:34 AM

Sorry Rob, not a very interesting puzzle today.

Saturday 7:11 AM

Excellent puzzle! I love it when a plan comes together as well with the starter card!! Thank you, Scott.

Saturday 7:51 AM

ditto....

Saturday 9:55 AM

Well, it appears that I have the whole island to myself today.....bummer:( Anywhooo, I don't care at all what I send to their crib. If I get an A,3, or 4 cut this game is mine! Any other hold and / or cut leaves me struggling and.....still losing. Great Scott puzzle.....uh... the reader may want to rearrange those words.

Saturday 1:00 PM

Echoing the crowd today. Need to go out here, and keeping it this way, we score ten with any X or 4 cut, or a dozen with a Q, or 14 with a 5. If we can get the X cut like we did today, play offense and try to get those two pegs we need to go out. If we fail to go out here, the game is almost certainly over.

Saturday 2:55 PM

At 109-116* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the Win/Loss %s are:

Offense___________Win %_______Loss %_____Dlr Peg Out %
A-5-5-Q____________31.8________61.2___________9.6
A-A-A-5____________22.2________77.8___________2.6
A-A-A-Q____________21.5________78.5___________2.1

A-5-5-Q has the best chance of Winning and although it has a high chance of Dealer Pegging Out I'll still select a pair of As to discard.

After the K cut I'll lead a 5 and play Offense:

Lead_______Our Pegging Points
5________________0.85
A________________0.81
Q________________0.79

Saturday 3:15 PM

Same again.