Sunday 3:26 AM

Toss (J Q) actually has a higher Crib Value than Toss (6 8), and it can become as much as Twenty-One Points in our Crib, since the 5 of Clubs is still unaccounted for! We could also try to peg with the two-card Magic Eleven of 5-6 after Toss (A 8), but this would weaken our Crib even further.

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Let's Toss (J Q) in the spirit of sticking with the Puzzle Composer's wish (and because it is indeed the most aggressive idea), and after the Queen of Diamonds Cut, we now have Four Points in our Hand, with prospects for a great Crib.

Interesting, as we can peg points after any Lead Card except a Deuce, Trey, or 4 Card!

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If Pone leads a/an:

Ace, then reply with our Ace for the PAIR;

Deuce, then reply with our 8 Card, as now we can score after Seventeen Responses (AAA, 4444, 555, 666, 7777);

Trey, then reply with our 6 Card, as now only another 6 Card can score, as now we can score after Seventeen Responses (AAA, 4444, 555, 7777, 888). And if the Dealer does score (15=4), we play our Ace, making any "X" Card response by the Dealer push the Count up to Twenty-Six, after which our 5 Card scores (931-2);

4 Card, then reply with our 8 Card. Halscrib likes to reply to a 4 Card Lead with the 6 Card when in "Gobble-Gobble" mode, and if we were desperate for points, who knows: maybe we do give up Five Holes in order to score just Two Holes;

5 Card, then reply with our Ace or 8 Card, or we could be adventurous and PAIR the 5 Card with our 5 Card, I mean, what could possibly go wrong?

6 Card, then reply with our 6 Card for the PAIR, or we could risk the "Big Picture" and reply with our 8 Card, because now if the Dealer plays a 7 Card for (21=3), we can play our 5 Card for (26-4);

7 Card, then reply with our 8 Card for (15-2);

8 Card, then reply with our 8 Card for the PAIR;

9 Card, then reply with our 6 Card for (15-2);

Ten "T" Card, Jack, Queen, or King, then reply with our 5 Card for (15-2).

Sunday 4:14 AM

Keeping points in hand today with the touching faces. Could end up with 9 or 10 in hand with the right face card cut. Any middle card cut could produce a decent crib result.

Sunday 4:21 AM

If choosing offense, holding A-5-6-8, discarding J-Q has the edge. The slightly larger potential crib with J-Q 4.827 compared to 6-8 4.631 and far superior pegging prospects outweigh potentially larger hands with other discards. At hole 65, Needing to deal from 3rd street CPZ (69-73), will play on the lead and take any pegs offered. JQT outlines the pegging possibilities above. Dealer needs to pick up the slack sooner rather than later. Why not now?

Sunday 4:40 AM

Going with Mike here. Although I like the four peggers going to try to fill the points with some for all three facets with opponent helping out. dec

Sunday 4:52 AM

On my own with a 5 J throw at the moment!

Sunday 5:17 AM

I thought about A-8 or 6-8.

Sunday 5:20 AM

Another yuck sandwich. Keeping 5JQ and the 6 is the next logical card in case a 4 is cut. Gotta peg a little.

Sunday 6:52 AM

I like it this way.

Sunday 7:58 AM

Agree with Gougie00

Sunday 8:29 AM

Runnin with the crowd today.

Sunday 9:15 AM

You can tell from my comment at the top which way I'm going. It appears from the numerous times this puzzle has been submitted in the past, that only on Defense is it worth while breaking up the 5-6 Magic Eleven, with the (6-8) toss. According to HalsCrib on Offense that A-5-6-8 just out pegs even 5-6-J-Q by about 1 full point. Enough so that starting with 2 is better than starting with 4. See JQT's pegging analysis at the top of the page.

Sunday 10:56 AM

If I'm playing a seasoned player, I don't ever expect a 3/5/7 in the crib. With someone newer, I'd have tossed 6/8

Sunday 12:03 PM

At 65*-66 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W4 %____W5 %
A-5-6-8____5.30+4.04+4.64=13.98____19.1____22.2
5-6-J-Q____7.02+3.09+3.68=13.79____19.2____22.3
A-5-J-Q____6.67+2.52+4.59=13.78____22.2____25.8
A-6-8-Q____3.83+3.04+6.75=13.62____18.6____23.6
A-6-8-J____4.07+3.07+6.47=13.61____19.2____24.3

POffense______L4 %____L5 %
A-5-6-8________34.6____60.1
5-6-J-Q________35.1____60.2
A-5-J-Q________32.7____56.4
A-6-8-Q________32.6____58.7
A-6-8-J________32.4____58.1

A-5-6-8 is best for expected averages by 0.19pt. over 5-6-J-Q and 0.20pt. over A-5-J-Q. However, A-5-J-Q is best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So as we're approaching 3rd street positional hole I'll decide based on the Win/Loss %s and select 6-8 to discard.

After the Q cut I'll play Offense to the lead.

Sunday 3:07 PM

I was torn between A-8 and 6-8, but felt 6-8 was the better crib throw. Both retain the same starting hand value and the magic 11. I thought about keeping 5-6 together for the run upside in the hand, but keeping it this way, we still benefit from a 4 or 7 cut, perhaps even more so with the 7. Looks like another quality puzzle today with several differing opinions. Cheers!