Tuesday 4:19 AM

I vote to go for it even in one into thousands chance. I vote to reduce spread points. Perhaps if they were three or four points back I might ponder 9-J. Just maybe now we lead a nine and get lucky and peg three tens for seven. Playing to win. dec

Tuesday 4:31 AM

Last train out of town again. "All aboard!" Without a 9, 10 or a J, I'll lose. It didnt happen. Sometimes the bipolar cribbage fairy sits on the other side of the table. Get used to it.

Tuesday 5:23 AM

Toss (2 3) gives us our ONLY shot in which Eight Cut Cards (999, TT, JJJ) will yield Sixteen Points (or just Fifteen Points for the Ten of Hearts), which roughly translates to 8/46 equals 0.174 or about 17% of the time we have a good chance to prevail, but of course we may have to peg up to Two Holes even if we cut into that Delicious Pay-Dirt. 😯 There is no "safe" option here, so let's Toss (2 3) today. After the 6 of Hearts Cut, we still have just Eight Points in our Illustrious 🖐🏻 Hand. Let's lead a Ten "T" Card and HOPE it gets 🍐 PAIRED; and if so, we STILL need to peg another 🕳 🕳 🕳 Three Holes! Drat's! 🐈 🌾 🥠

Tuesday 5:47 AM

The crib most likely will not be counted. Hope the dealer is holding one of remaining tens.

Tuesday 5:48 AM

I think you've got to go, "all in", here.

Tuesday 5:59 AM

This should be a 90 percent choice-4 cuts get us to at least 14- the dealer is only 11 out so it doesn’t really matter if we toss 23,K-10 or 2 fives-we have to maximize our hand potential

Tuesday 6:01 AM

This is my only hope.

Tuesday 6:02 AM

I did sit and consider the 9-J for a while, but there just aren’t enough cuts that get us close. We can’t be expected to peg eight points between this hand and next, if there is a next. Instead, we’ve gotta go for it and hope we see any of the eight remaining 9, 10, or J cards come up on the cut!

Tuesday 6:29 AM

Tuesday 6:32 AM

No bout adout it.

Tuesday 6:38 AM

You cannot stop Dealer from going out, so you need to try to go out first.

Tuesday 6:50 AM

Play to maximize my chance of winning. Full speed ahead!

Tuesday 7:20 AM

Their crib is basically irrelevant here. We have to go for the win here with first count.

Tuesday 7:46 AM

Minority again but decided against the hail Mary and since I hold two 10s the are against him connecting the 9, J toss. Was hoping for a 2 or 3 on the cut though and to peg. 6 probably sealed my fate.

Tuesday 8:52 AM

Agree with you here.

Tuesday 9:11 AM

In a corner, so all or nothing!

Tuesday 10:32 AM

If I don’t chance the 2 3 throw I’m going to lose as dealer would be pone on the next deal.

Tuesday 12:19 PM

At 104-110* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

__________________________Our
Offense____Hand___Pegs___Crib___Total____Win %____Loss %
2-3-10-10____8.39+1.30+(-4.77)=4.92_____0.6____74.9
9-10-10-J___10.63+1.15+(-7.23)=4.55____16.6____83.4

2-3-10-10 is better for expected averages by 0.37pt. but in this end of game position Win/Loss %s are more important. 9-10-10-J is very much better for Win %s while 2-3-10-10 is considerably lower for Loss %s. 9-10-10-J has 8 cuts for 15/16pts while 2-3-10-10 has 8 cuts for 12pts which still needs opponent to score fewer than 11pts and for us to peg out as Dealer if we score 12pts. I think too many "what ifs" so I'll select 2-3 to discards and go for the Win this deal.

After the 6 cut I'll lead the J and play Offense:

Lead_____________Our Pegging Points______Win %
10_______________________1.15_____________0.6
J________________________1.09_____________3.1
9________________________0.97_____________1.8

Although a 10 lead is best for Our Pegging Points the J lead is best for Win %s.

Tuesday 3:42 PM

Just an echo to HalscribCLX. With dealer needing 11 points to win, go for all can get. Lead the 10 although dealer is not likely to pair. The only time dealer pairs that X-point lead when has a hand of all X-pointers and needs to play eight side ofthe ten spot.