November 27, 2024

*** This hand was suggested by Inushtuk1
0-0*  ?
34%
34%
30%
30%
19%
19%
10%
10%
3%
3%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 264
Inushtuk1Playing offense which is best? (A-9) or (A-J. It seems to me we are morelikely to trap a 5 by tossing the J. Am I correct?
MarktheShark

Joined: January 2024 (310 votes)

Wednesday 3:51 AM
Several close choices again. Keeping the run, of course. A-9, A-J, 4-9, 4-J, 9-J? My limited experience tells me to pitch the A rather than the 4 from this type hand. Prefer not to pitch a Jack if there is another reasonable option, because the Jack is a connector card that might help Dealer's crib and might be worth a point. If you want max pegging, however, pitching the 9-J might be best and also the most likely to backfire. I am not that desperate at Hand 1, so I will pitch the A-9.
Eolus619 says: Morning Mark..with you listing viable options in your post this seems a good place to show Ras’s list of frequent dealer discards to own crib..i realize the six dealt cards and board position will largely dictate what the n/der discards ..but the following list is worth a “think” about potential vulnerability when n/der discard options are close ..in order most to least frequent ..top 20 7/8…2/3…6/9…6/7…A/2…A/3…6/8…8/9…7/9…Q/K… J/Q…A/4…5/K…2/4…3/4…5/J…8/8…10/J…2/2…J/K
Eolus619 says: and strange or odd or ???…that a five shows up only twice in the top 20
J.W.B. says: It seems odd a 5 would be a rare discard to one’s own crib but I admit I rarely discard a 5 to my crib. The crib gives 3 cards (2 discards and a turn card) to help the five while holding it only one (the turn). I suppose you could count your second discard to the crib card as a 5 card helper John
JQT says: Remember, those Discard Frequency Tables are based on having a Random Card Distribution BEFORE EACH DEAL, and therefore, once we pick up the (Ac 2s 3d 4h 9c Js) Hand as Pone, this will drastically affect those documented distributions. Specifically, let's just look at the first two Dealer Discard Entries in the Top Twenty List: (7 8) and (2 3). We were dealt one Deuce and one Trey, but we were NOT dealt any 7 Cards or any 8 Cards. Thus, we now know that 25% of all Deuces and 25% of all Treys are accounted for, because they are in our Hand and looking back at us! This makes it significantly MORE LIKELY that the Dealer Discard during this deal will be Toss (7 8), and significantly LESS LIKELY that the Dealer Discard during this deal will be Toss (2 3). Therefore, it makes the choice of sending our 9 Card "over the board" a LOT MORE DANGEROUS and simultaneously it makes the discard of our Ace a LOT LESS DANGEROUS, when compared to the relative inherent risk that existed BEFORE we picked up our cards and looked at them. The odds of giving the Dealer's Crib an A-2-3 RUN is therefore much lower now, since we are holding one-fourth of the "Helper Cards" that are required to form such a RUN. And the odds that a 5 Card will show up as having been discarded by the Dealer are much higher now, since no 5 Cards were originally in our Hand. 🍂 🥗 🍰
Eolus619 says: Insightful JQT TY. AND your emoji selections are …..well …eclectic to say the least
mfetchCT425

Joined: February 2009 (1510 votes)

Wednesday 4:50 AM
Like A-9 in their crib. I think it provides a little more defense vs some of the other viable options.
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (5981 votes)

Wednesday 4:56 AM
I kept the 9 so I can lead the 3.
glmccuskey

Joined: April 2011 (4333 votes)

Wednesday 5:18 AM
JQT

Joined: October 2008 (4327 votes)

Wednesday 5:20 AM
Toss (A J) is the more traditional approach, but let's try it this way for kicks, as Five Cut Cards (As, 222, 3s) yield Thirteen Points or more, so let's give it a whirl. Lead the Jack. 🎡
bobsf says: why lead the jack?
JQT says: The Jack Lead will significantly "boost" the scoring potential of our remaining Small Cards with such a Hand as Pone, because those remaining cards are of High Pegging Value, and they are contiguous. Our chance to score a RUN is now a lot higher, because we've not only saved our "goal-getters" for the latter stages of the pegging, but in addition, the Jack also "launches" the Count as high as possible right off-the-bat, and this increases the chance that a Count of Thirty-One will be approached more quickly, thus allowing our remaining Small Cards to score more often. 🌾
JQT says: Imagine that the Dealer has four Ten Cards, or (X X X X), or any combination of (A 4 X X), etc., and go through the various possible resultant Pegging Battles.
Assman

Joined: May 2024 (241 votes)

Wednesday 5:42 AM
Lead the 3.
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4164 votes)

Wednesday 5:57 AM
Change the Jack for a Queen or King, and I think I'd have chosen A-2-3-4.
scottcrib

Joined: August 2019 (1881 votes)

Wednesday 6:27 AM
I'm in the 4-9 camp for the negative delta.
RubyTuesday

Joined: January 2019 (1103 votes)

Wednesday 6:52 AM
A J to dealer. Not very exciting, but hopefully not very helpful.
Djgoat

Joined: December 2023 (121 votes)

Wednesday 7:12 AM
I don't think any option keeping 5 points here can be wrong but if not for the J I probably would have opted for the 4-card straight.
wasa

Joined: November 2014 (3221 votes)

Wednesday 7:42 AM
A-2-3-4 is the only hand that guarantees 6 points. Full offence as first pone.
Jazzselke

Joined: March 2009 (2745 votes)

Wednesday 7:45 AM
Prefer not throwing the J, and like the A9 brick to the opponent.
Sgt Pegger

Joined: July 2017 (510 votes)

Wednesday 8:09 AM
This is how I chose and for the same reasons stated above.
jmudge

Joined: July 2020 (886 votes)

Wednesday 8:51 AM
Greedy greedy!
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6629 votes)

Wednesday 2:47 PM
I chose like it was crib but it isn't . I wonder what the offensive pegging numbers look like thou? Maybe the second choice? I should have done A-9 . dec
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5536 votes)

Wednesday 3:06 PM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W9 %____W10 %
2-3-4-9____8.09+2.20+(-4.57)=5.72____28.4____26.4
2-3-4-J____8.20+2.02+(-4.56)=5.66____28.0____26.0
A-2-3-J____8.02+2.02+(-4.42)=5.62____27.2____24.9
A-2-3-9____7.96+1.70+(-4.62)=5.04____27.0____25.0
A-2-3-4____8.09+1.96+(-5.27)=4.78____27.9____24.3

Offense______L9 %_____L10 %
2-3-4-9_______37.7_____48.6
2-3-4-J_______37.9_____49.0
A-2-3-J_______38.2_____49.9
A-2-3-9_______38.0_____49.8
A-2-3-4_______40.5_____51.2

2-3-4-9 is best for expected averages by 0.06pt. and is very slightly best for Win %s and very slightly lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select A-J to discard.

After the K cut I'll lead a 3 and play Offense:

Lead___________Our Pegging Points
3_____________________1.77
9_____________________1.69
4_____________________1.41
2_____________________1.40
Eolus619 says: well done on this puzzle Mike !..seems unlikely ,from the varied opinions ( Hal included ) , there is actually just one “true” discard path today
Ras2829

Joined: November 2008 (5384 votes)

Wednesday 6:13 PM
Choosing offense as n/d of hand one, the 2-3-4-9 Has a slight edge because it produces more peg points on average. Will lead the 9 from this group. If count advances to 19 with Q/K. drop the trey for 22. That will often trap a five (a frequent outcome), n/d scores a run of three and a go. This hand and 3-4-5-8 are great n/d offensive peggers in leading the sleeper card at the top of the hand. Choosing optimal or defense, would have led the trey.