November 29, 2024
75% 75% | |||||
14% 14% | |||||
2% 2% | |||||
1% 1% | |||||
1% 1% | |||||
1% 1% | |||||
0% 0% | |||||
0% 0% | |||||
0% 0% | |||||
Total votes: 240 |
Joined: October 2008 (4308 votes) Friday 3:10 AM
We are the Dealer at Hole 104, needing Seventeen Points to WIN. And our Opponent needs Sixteen Points as Pone, which is a full Six Points above Pone Average, so we likely have a bit of "wiggle room" during the pegging today. We have Two Ideas that allow us to begin with a 'static' Eight Points, and they are: 🥂
A) The Double Run Idea: Keep (A 2 3 3) and Toss (T K) B) The FLUSH Idea: Keep (2c 3c Tc Kc) and Toss (As 3d) The FLUSH has Twenty-Six Cut Cards (AAA, 222, 33, 9999, TTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKK) that will jump-start our Hand up to a Dozen Points or more, which is more than half the remaining deck, while the Double Run has only Seventeen Cut Cards (Ac, 222, 33, 4c, 5555, TTT, KKK) that will start our Hand with a Dozen Points or more, a vastly inferior number. 🌉 Meanwhile, the Double Run, with its four Small Cards, should also peg better, but it might also 'cough up' a few easy points for Pone during the pegging as well. We have to carefully weigh the added benefits of the Double Run in terms of both Hand Score and Pegging, which are very clear, against the slight liability these cards may also inflict during the pegging. 🐱👤 If Pone picks up or "cuts into" a Sixteen-Point Hand, we shall lose, no matter what; if Pone however picks up or "cuts into" a Dozen-Points Hand, holding the Double Run on our side of the board may allow Pone to peg just enough to defeat us. The fact is, we have been dealt a greater-than-50% chance to obtain a Dozen Points or more if we hold the Double Run, and yet we don't know what cards Pone was dealt. We should probably play to our strength, and keep the points! 💎 Let's Toss (T K) with confidence, and retain the Double Run today. After the 9s Cut Card, we now have Fourteen Points in our Hand, with prospects for a weak Crib. However, we only need to come up with Three Points between our Pegging and our Crib in order to 'close out' and WIN this game at the completion of this deal. 🔱 Still, we should not peg recklessly by any means, as Pone may be holding a Dozen Points or something similar in Hand! Be careful, especially if we see a lot of Middle Cards played by Pone during the pegging, cards that might be 'energized' by the 9 Card Cut. 🌾 MarktheShark says: Hi, JQT. I think you switched the cuts for the flush and the double run. JQT says: I'll have to fire my proofreader again! Even the spell checker let this giant error through. 😲 |
Joined: January 2024 (289 votes) Friday 4:09 AM
In this endgame position, I am more interested in pegging defensively than in scoring points. I will keep the wide cards and expect to go out next hand. MarktheShark says: Wow. I thought endgame play was one of my strengths. Not used to being outvoted more than 10 to 1 and alone on an island! Annabella says: You’re not alone, and trying to through something productive to crib, since it could be our last count. Annabella says: Throw MarktheShark says: Remember we also have first count next deal. The proverbial three hands to one. To score 17 total and go out. |
Joined: November 2008 (5370 votes) Friday 4:31 AM
Just an echo to JQT this day. Have chosen an optimal strategy. Will avoid pegs unless seemingly safe. If n/d scores 16 points, let that be on the count in hand - not on some careless pegs awarded by dealer. Dealer here has a very strong advantage with n/d average of 9/10 points with first count on upcoming hand. Eolus619 says: Morning Ras…n/der leads a four ..your reply?…n/der leads a six ..your reply?..n/der leads an eight…your reply? thx Eolus619 says: yikes…sorry…not sure what happened..but you only need to reply ONCE MarktheShark says: Add leads of an Ace and a Two to that list. Pone is likely to be pegging happily. That was why I did not keep bunched cards. Ras2829 says: Actually, playing off with these cards is easier than it might seem. If ace lead, play 3C; if deuce lead, play the Ace; if trey led, pair; if four led, play 2; if 5 lead, play Ace; if 6 led, play 3C; if 7 lead, play Ace; if 8 led, play 3C; if 9 lead, play 3C; if X-pointer lead, play Ace. Goal is to avoid peg. Truth is that tightly bunched A-2-3-3 gives up fewer pegs on average than would widely spaced 2-3-10-K. |
Joined: April 2008 (6610 votes) Friday 5:03 AM
Pegging and endgames usually are inter weaved. So unless that five cut is showing go for the 12-16 points cuts lead the three and play on here. dec |
Joined: March 2008 (5962 votes) Friday 5:43 AM
Holding the double run. |
Joined: April 2011 (4315 votes) Friday 6:13 AM
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Joined: June 2013 (4145 votes) Friday 6:33 AM
I'll join Mark on his island. MarktheShark says: Thanks, James. There were 20 votes for the double run before there was a second for the flush. Down to 5:1 against at the moment. |
Joined: May 2024 (221 votes) Friday 7:26 AM
Ditto. |
Joined: March 2009 (2729 votes) Friday 7:37 AM
Double run all the way, more cuts for 12 or more. |
Joined: February 2022 (300 votes) Friday 7:37 AM
Keeping the double run makes the most sense to me, and the 9 cut gives me a nice 14 point hand. I pegged a few in CRIBPRO for the win. |
Joined: January 2019 (1092 votes) Friday 10:08 AM
I kept the double run. |
Joined: July 2020 (868 votes) Friday 2:34 PM
Doh, I thought that the Ace was a Club! 😖 |
Joined: February 2008 (5520 votes) Friday 2:55 PM
At 104*-105 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
________________Pone's Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib_Total____Win %___Loss % A-2-3-3____11.78+(-2.11)+2.83=12.50____53.7____14.6 2-3C-10-K__10.52+(-2.13)+4.02=12.41____43.9_____8.5 A-2-3-3 is slightly better for expected averages by 0.09pt. and is very much better for Win %s although considerably worse for Loss %s. Even so I'll select 10-K to discard. After the 9 cut I'll play Defense to the lead. |
Joined: August 2009 (2244 votes) Friday 6:01 PM
I am on auto here. |