Friday 3:10 AM

We are the Dealer at Hole 104, needing Seventeen Points to WIN. And our Opponent needs Sixteen Points as Pone, which is a full Six Points above Pone Average, so we likely have a bit of "wiggle room" during the pegging today. We have Two Ideas that allow us to begin with a 'static' Eight Points, and they are: 🥂

A) The Double Run Idea: Keep (A 2 3 3) and Toss (T K)

B) The FLUSH Idea: Keep (2c 3c Tc Kc) and Toss (As 3d)

The FLUSH has Twenty-Six Cut Cards (AAA, 222, 33, 9999, TTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKK) that will jump-start our Hand up to a Dozen Points or more, which is more than half the remaining deck, while the Double Run has only Seventeen Cut Cards (Ac, 222, 33, 4c, 5555, TTT, KKK) that will start our Hand with a Dozen Points or more, a vastly inferior number. 🌉

Meanwhile, the Double Run, with its four Small Cards, should also peg better, but it might also 'cough up' a few easy points for Pone during the pegging as well. We have to carefully weigh the added benefits of the Double Run in terms of both Hand Score and Pegging, which are very clear, against the slight liability these cards may also inflict during the pegging. 🐱‍👤

If Pone picks up or "cuts into" a Sixteen-Point Hand, we shall lose, no matter what; if Pone however picks up or "cuts into" a Dozen-Points Hand, holding the Double Run on our side of the board may allow Pone to peg just enough to defeat us. The fact is, we have been dealt a greater-than-50% chance to obtain a Dozen Points or more if we hold the Double Run, and yet we don't know what cards Pone was dealt. We should probably play to our strength, and keep the points! 💎

Let's Toss (T K) with confidence, and retain the Double Run today. After the 9s Cut Card, we now have Fourteen Points in our Hand, with prospects for a weak Crib. However, we only need to come up with Three Points between our Pegging and our Crib in order to 'close out' and WIN this game at the completion of this deal. 🔱

Still, we should not peg recklessly by any means, as Pone may be holding a Dozen Points or something similar in Hand! Be careful, especially if we see a lot of Middle Cards played by Pone during the pegging, cards that might be 'energized' by the 9 Card Cut. 🌾

Friday 4:09 AM

In this endgame position, I am more interested in pegging defensively than in scoring points. I will keep the wide cards and expect to go out next hand.

Friday 4:31 AM

Just an echo to JQT this day. Have chosen an optimal strategy. Will avoid pegs unless seemingly safe. If n/d scores 16 points, let that be on the count in hand - not on some careless pegs awarded by dealer. Dealer here has a very strong advantage with n/d average of 9/10 points with first count on upcoming hand.

Friday 5:03 AM

Pegging and endgames usually are inter weaved. So unless that five cut is showing go for the 12-16 points cuts lead the three and play on here. dec

Friday 5:43 AM

Holding the double run.

Friday 6:13 AM

Friday 6:33 AM

I'll join Mark on his island.

Friday 7:26 AM

Ditto.

Friday 7:37 AM

Double run all the way, more cuts for 12 or more.

Friday 7:37 AM

Keeping the double run makes the most sense to me, and the 9 cut gives me a nice 14 point hand. I pegged a few in CRIBPRO for the win.

Friday 10:08 AM

I kept the double run.

Friday 2:34 PM

Doh, I thought that the Ace was a Club! 😖

Friday 2:55 PM

At 104*-105 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib_Total____Win %___Loss %
A-2-3-3____11.78+(-2.11)+2.83=12.50____53.7____14.6
2-3C-10-K__10.52+(-2.13)+4.02=12.41____43.9_____8.5

A-2-3-3 is slightly better for expected averages by 0.09pt. and is very much better for Win %s although considerably worse for Loss %s. Even so I'll select 10-K to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

Friday 6:01 PM

I am on auto here.