November 30, 2024
54% 54% | |||||
38% 38% | |||||
3% 3% | |||||
1% 1% | |||||
1% 1% | |||||
0% 0% | |||||
0% 0% | |||||
| Total votes: 253 | |||||
| Inushtuk1 | I think I know what to discard. But what is the appropriate lead? |
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Joined: October 2008 (4308 votes) Saturday 3:41 AM
We need Nineteen Points as Pone in this 'MontrΓ©al Mike' (Inushtuk1) "November Last 2024" Puzzle, or nearly twice the Pone Average Tally, and the Dealer needs Twenty-Four Points. Our chances of winning from such a dire Relative Score are maybe 20% or one-in-five, but only if we play correctly and precisely; otherwise, our winning chances will be much lower. π² β π©
We have three ways to begin with at least Four Points: Toss (T K), Toss (2 8), or Toss (2 K), and the first and last of these three ideas work because every Cut Card adds at least Two Points if we Keep (A 4 8 T) or (A 2 4 8). So much for 'scoping out' the prospective landscape: Let's get down to the serious 'bizz-nizz' of attempting to pull a WIN out of the jaws of certain defeat! π πΉ π₯ (A 4 T K) can reach Ten Points after Six Cuts (AAA, 444), but those other two ideas of either (A 2 4 8) or (A 4 8 T), can only reach Eight Points or Six Points, respectively. Thus, even if we do obtain the most desirable Cut Card, we lack the "oomph" to get the job done during just a single deal. Sobeit, or (BTAIM); be that as it may. We'll seek VICTORY during a second deal if at all possible. π π πͺ Given that it is extremely likely that this game will head into another deal after this one, and that our prospects for winning are 'dismal at best,' the Defensive Idea of Toss (T K) will definitely be at the top of our menu here. In fact, it's the only thing on the menu! π π π‘ Let's Toss (T K) today and go into a Defensive Stand. Even Puzzle Composer, Mike, admits that this is the easy part. π€ π» π±βπ After the Deuce Cut, we now have Six Points in our Hand, which shall get us to Hole 108 with certainty by completion of this deal, needing just Thirteen Holes as the Next Dealer, even if we don't peg 'squat' during this deal. Our objective is to prevent the Current Dealer from pegging during this deal, so let's lead our 4 Card. The 4 Card Lead is the best PLAN, as it performs a logical separation of our remaining three cards, and it forces the Dealer to allow us to now 'straddle' the Count of Fifteen by either scoring (15-2) or avoiding it as we choose and/or are able. After that Deuce Cut, it might seem more prudent to lead our Deuce as a percentage-play, but if a Deuce Lead does get PAIRED by the Dealer, it now gets PAIRED with impunity, as it offers the Dealer much greater assurance against the risk that we might have another Deuce for PAIRS Royal. π π· πΉ A Deuce Lead would also leave our Lone Ace a bit more vulnerable at a Count of Twenty-Eight or Higher, when the Dealer might be able to capitalize and peg Six or even Eight Points uncontested! The best percentage-play, the Deuce Lead, is therefore not always the best overall PLAN in aggregate when we think of our scheme of attempting to hold Dealer's pegging to a minimum. In addition, if a Deuce Lead gets PAIRED, this only brings the Count up to Four, not allowing us to parry, and more importantly it allows the Dealer to get a "Swing-of-the-Bat" at scoring Fifteen-Two as well! By simply leading our 4 Card, we reverse this script on our Opponent, and we get a shot at scoring or avoiding Fifteen-Two instead of handing this over to the Dealer. π€ β¨ π’ * * * π π π * * * Given that our odds of winning hover around 20% today at best, it takes approximately Five Attempts at playing out various sundry Endgame Battles in order to produce just One Victory. In spite of the cards and the score we inherited with today's puzzle, and regardless of those poor odds of winning in mind, I wish to present the following three Playout Examples of VICTORIES (and not enumerate all of the losses that this effort entailed!) while sparring with REX, a predecessor to Halscrib 'prof' and HalscribCLX. Note that the Cut Cards in these three examples differ from the one we witnessed in the puzzle as posted, since these are truly chosen at random during the playout process: * * * π π π * * * Playout Example 1: Score: (102-97*) Seeds: T: 0.0.0 (Custom) Deal: #01 File: DCH-2024-11-30a.B64 JQT = Pone = Keep (Ac 2s 4d 8h) and Toss (Tc Ks) REX = Deal = Keep (5s 7d Jc Kd) and Toss (2h 4c) Cut = Jd Pone Hand = 4 Points, Dealer Hand = 8 Points, Dealer Crib = 0 Points 4 (4) J (14) A (15-2) 7 (22) 8 (30-1), K (10) 2 (12) 5 (17=1), Pone = 3, Dealer = 3. and the score is now (109*-108), so another deal is required to decide who shall win. We only gave up Last Card to the Dealer, the minimum amount a Dealer can peg, but we also gave up Two Points due to Her Heels. So let's move on to the Next Deal. Score: (109*-108) Seeds: T: 14128.1708.17537 Deal: #02 File: DCH-2024-11-30a.B64 REX = Pone = Keep (2s 4h 4d 5d) and Toss (Jc Kh) JQT = Deal = Keep (2d 3c 4c Qd) and Toss (7d 8c) Cut = Ts Pone Hand = 6 Points, Dealer Hand = 7 Points, Dealer Crib = 2 Points 4 (4) Q (14) 2 (16) 2 (18=2) 5 (23) 3 (26) 4 (30-5), 4 (4=1), Pone = 5, Dealer = 3. and the game ends as the score is now (121-119). After seeing Pone play a 4 Card, a Deuce, and a 5 Card, was it wrong for me to play the Trey instead of the 4 Card, making the Count Twenty-Six and allowing the Opponent to play the 4 Card for (30-5)?! Or was this simply a probabilistic-risk that was correct, but turned out badly? (At least it seemed bad at the time; but I still WON.) * * * π π» π * * * Playout Example 2: Score: (102-97*) Seeds: T: 0.0.0 (Custom) Deal: #01 File: DCH-2024-11-30b.B64 JQT = Pone = Keep (Ac 2s 4d 8h) and Toss (Tc Ks) REX = Deal = Keep (2d 2c 7s 9d) and Toss (5s Js) Cut = 3d Pone Hand = 8 Points, Dealer Hand = 2 Points, Dealer Crib = 6 Points 4 (4) 7 (11) A (12) 2 (14) 2 (16-2) 2 (18=6) 8 (26-1), 9 (9=1), Pone = 3, Dealer = 7. and the score is now (113*-112), so once again, another deal is required to decide who shall win. At a Count of Eleven, the safest play is our Ace, even though the Count is still below Fifteen. Was it wrong to grab the PAIR of Deuces instead of playing my 8 Card to push the Count up to Twenty-Two. It sure seems so! Anyway, let's move on to the Next Deal. Score: (113*-112) Seeds: T: 11962.612.29217 Deal: #02 File: DCH-2024-11-30b.B64 REX = Pone = Keep (Ah Ac 4s Td) and Toss (6s 9c) JQT = Deal = Keep (As 3s 8s 9s) and Toss (8d 9d) Cut = 6d Pone Hand = 6 Points, Dealer Hand = 8 Points, Dealer Crib = 12 Points 4 (4) 8 (12) T (22) 9 (31=5), A (1) A (2=2) A (3-6) 3 (6=1), Pone = 6, Dealer = 8. and the game ends as the score is now (121-118). Pone was holding Six Points, and needed to peg Three Holes in the very worst way! That is why I got away with the early 8-9-T Run for (31=5) during the first volley of pegging, as Pone was counting on those Two Aces to secure the game. But I could smell the Finish Line, so I took the Ace PAIR and gave up an additional Six Holes in the process, since Last Card would bring me VICTORY. * * * π πΌ π * * * Playout Example 3: Score: (102-97*) Seeds: T: 0.0.0 (Custom) Deal: #01 File: DCH-2024-11-30c.B64 JQT = Pone = Keep (Ac 2s 4d 8h) and Toss (Tc Ks) REX = Deal = Keep (6c 7c 8c Kc) and Toss (2d 4h) Cut = Kh Pone Hand = 4 Points, Dealer Hand = 11 Points, Dealer Crib = 2 Points 4 (4) 7 (11) A (12) K (22) 8 (30-1), 8 (8) 2 (10), 6 (16=1), Pone = 1, Dealer = 1. and the score is now (107*-111), and by now we all know the drill: another deal is required to decide who shall win. Once again, I unloaded the Ace at a Count of Eleven, and once again, I got away with it. Holding the Dealer to just One Point during the pegging is just what is needed here! If you look at these two hands prior to the pegging, it would seem that it's possible for the Dealer to 'cash in' on a Run here, but by separating those Middle Cards between two separate volleys of pegging, we are often able to neutralize them. At this by-now very familiar junction, let's move on to the Next Deal. Score: (107*-111) Seeds: T: 23160.556.29289 Deal: #02 File: DCH-2024-11-30c.B64 REX = Pone = Keep (Ad 4d Qc Kc) and Toss (7s 8h) JQT = Deal = Keep (2s 2d Tc Ks) and Toss (6s 8c) Cut = 3c Pone Hand = 4 Points, Dealer Hand = 10 Points, Dealer Crib = 12 Points K (10) T (20) Q (30) A (31-2), K (10) 4 (14) 2 (16) 2 (18=3), Pone = 2, Dealer = 3. and the game ends in our favor again as the score is now (121-117). Pone had the awkward arrangement in which Toss (7 8) actually gave the best chances, but the Trey Cut put a big VETO on Pone's hopes. My chosen Hand was noteworthy, as I stuffed two Middle Cards into my Crib, and by retaining a PAIR of Deuces, that allowed the principle of "Safety in Numbers" to work for me during the pegging. Note that the King Lead by Pone allowed me to dodge any possible Run or PAIRS Royal with the Ten "T" Card Reply, and thus only allowed the Dealer to grab Thirty-One, and in doing so, the Dealer has to 'play out' all but one card. Pone's Hand is missing the critical Trey to cause any real threats, as if Pone did have a Trey, a Queen Lead by Pone might have forced me to unload a Deuce right from the start. If Pone can get the Count to become Twenty-Two or higher with the Second Card Played, that's when we start to get in trouble as the Dealer with such cards. Great Puzzle, Mike! π π π JQT says: The Cribbage "Hand of the Day" puzzle buffer is running on fumes, as it only contains puzzles through the 18th of December, which is only a few weeks from now. It's no reason to panic, as either myself, or one of the other probably less attractive moderators, can post some new puzzles and keep the hopper from running dry. We like to see a variety of contributions from as many people as possible, so why not give it a try? And we also have an unwritten and informal policy of posting for our puzzles to appear no more than two days in-a-row, so please post a puzzle -- or two -- and you might even get to see your puzzle appear before 2025 arrives, or perhaps it may be featured just as the New Year begins! If no variety of new puzzles are posted soon, I may have to "break the rules" and post enough puzzles to keep the buffer full, and trust me: nobody wants to see a whole bevy of my sordid puzzles all strung together, like a bunch of last-minute stocking-stuffers that were mindlessly gathered way after midnight from the "going out of business" sale at the local dollar store! Secret Santa knows whether you've been naughty or nice, and all he asks is for everyone to try to submit a puzzle (or two) before the end of the year, lest he send a few of his reindeer goons to come to your neighborhood or worse: to visit you in your dreams! Remember, he knows if you've been bad or good, so Post a Puzzle for Goodness Sakes! π
π» 𧩠π π² π - j q t - Eolus619 says: JQTβ¦if there is any COOKING SHERRY left over from Thanksgiving perhaps a wee dram ( or 2 ?) is in order, as a reward , for your prodigious effort ..well done JQT says: Irish Duck Barrel Proof is prohibitively expensive, and is sadly now exceedingly hard to find, ever since this imported delicacy was slapped with a 35% tariff, and it's now purported to be nearly $200 for a 750-millilitre bottle! Not to worry, though, as I recently picked up some California Cabernet Sauvignon (which I thoroughly enjoy sipping while making spaghetti or rigatoni, while munching on some fresh and still-warm-from-the-bakery Italian garlic bread and real, cold butter) at a very good price, and then in a fit of man-kitchen rage, I cut myself while trying to get the damn thing open! As it turns out, it's got one of those confounded finger-cutting, flakey aluminum alloy, screw-top caps, instead of the traditional cork, and the "leaded" wrapper seems like it's made out of a combination of plastic and tree bark and shoe leather! As it turns out, via some quick online research, the wrapper is actually described as being "made from a sleeve and wrapped in expanded polyethylene wadding," so I wasn't really too far off in my harsh assessment. I don't mind seeing the use of less lead in the wrappers (although there was a time, if I may digress and reminisce just a bit, when I would save these metal scraps and give them to a good friend and expert fly-tier, a guy who used these supple pieces of lead wrap as his "secret ingredient" to carefully tie into his own concoction and design of weighted Woolly Bugger nymphs, which are technically classified as streamers or wet flies, and in the head of a fine, rippling, treelined and shadowed early-morning riffle in my favorite trout stream, they would sink very gracefully and ease their way into the run, like an actual dislodged stone fly, often getting down more quickly and naturally than other professionally-tied imitations, such as my otherwise favorite Dan Bailey's patterns out of Livingston, Montana). I would often latch onto some monstrous, once-endangered Bull Trout (Salvelinus confluentus), which incidentally are sometimes still misidentified as Dolly Varden (Salvelinus malma), that were occasionally as hefty as a fat lady's thigh, and by 1980 I believe the naming confusion was mostly sorted out and solved, and yet the startling fact is that the Bull Trout isn't even technically a trout at all -- it's a char, and like other char such as Brook "Trout," they have bright, white identification marks along the leading edges of their fins that are characteristic of all char. But I assure you, when you are fast to a hooked Bull Trout on a 4-weight graphite rod with a 2X tippet, and it yearns and throbs for the next county like a locomotive, you'll immediately have the impression of being wedded to a bull; there's no mistaking that! I'll avoid the Screw-Cap wine bottles like the plague from now on, the same way I avoid the game wardens, but to be completely honest, the wine itself was pretty good. π π§ π π· - j q t - π· π π£ π₯ |
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Joined: February 2009 (1547 votes) Saturday 4:28 AM
We need 19 with 1 count compared to the dealer needing 24 with his 3 counts-with this hand configuration it has to be all out max defense-with the 2 cut Iβll lead my 2 as both a scare card and a percentage play ( only 2 remaining deuces) |
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Joined: May 2024 (221 votes) Saturday 4:32 AM
Ditto. |
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Joined: April 2011 (4315 votes) Saturday 4:37 AM
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Joined: April 2008 (6610 votes) Saturday 4:42 AM
Best defensive discard and I have read several times as far as tendencies a two response would be rated low especially with two of them seen. dec |
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Joined: March 2008 (5962 votes) Saturday 4:45 AM
I'm on the weight watchers menu as well. Lead the 4 and peg a little. |
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Joined: January 2024 (289 votes) Saturday 4:48 AM
Dealer is in position and we are short. Must defend. Easy choice in this endgame. Keep the 4-card 15 that is worth more and pitch bad cards to the crib. MarktheShark says: I will lead the 4 rather than the convenient 2. If paired, can play the 8 to push the count above 15. But, neither lead is foolproof. Eolus619 says: Morning Mark..Ras made a lateβ¦detailed..reply to our pegging questions yesterday in case you did not see it |
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Joined: June 2013 (4145 votes) Saturday 5:05 AM
Lead the 2. Fewer in circulation, plus they might feel safe to reply with their 5 card. |
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Joined: June 2020 (1558 votes) Saturday 6:39 AM
The K- 10 discard reminds any one who would like to do so ..to review Rasβs list of the 46 n/der discards that have the lowest average across the board ..K-10 is THE LOWEST
https://www.cribbage.org/NewSite/tips/rasmussen7.asp Eolus619 says: AND RAS..thanks for your answer to Markβs and my pegging questions yesterday Annabella says: Thank you for this info! |
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Joined: March 2023 (485 votes) Saturday 7:00 AM
10-K discard.
80% of the time, it works every time. |
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Joined: April 2024 (227 votes) Saturday 7:35 AM
Yuck! Keeping the A-4-10-K is best for points, but even that isnβt going to fare well this far out. Letβs instead prioritize stopping our opponent with the ugliest of crib tosses. Try and peg a few as well. Feeling like the 2 cut is our friend today. |
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Joined: February 2008 (5520 votes) Saturday 12:45 PM
At 102-97* playing a SAFE strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
_______________Dlr's Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib____Total_____Win %___Loss % A-2-4-8____4.87+(-2.52)+(-4.03)=(-1.68)___37.9____49.8 A-4-10-K___6.00+(-2.96)+(-4.82)=(-1.78)___35.2____52.3 A-2-4-10___4.52+(-2.67)+(-4.26)=(-2.41)___33.2____53.1 A-4-8-10___4.48+(-2.52)+(-4.50)=(-2.54)___33.1____52.9 A-2-4-8 is best for expected averages by 0.10pt. and is appreciably best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 10-K to discard. After the 2 cut I'll lead the 2 and play Defense: Lead____________Dealer's Pegging Points 2_______________________(-1.85) A_______________________(-1.96) 4_______________________(-2.00) 8_______________________(-2.43) |
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Joined: August 2009 (2244 votes) Saturday 2:10 PM
With the flow. |
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Joined: July 2016 (1678 votes) Saturday 8:10 PM
The reason for the submission was to find out from the great peggers on this site which was the best defensive lead from this hand. I recall Ras's chart where he says lead the 4 on Defense. But on F3b 12th 2018, HalscribCLX chose the deuce lead; and Ras thought that was the better idea, putting more space between the remaining cards. Today the cut is a deuce. Was this manipulated? I wouldn't be surprised. I was hoping Ras would chime in. Perhaps he will. Could it be on full defense the deuce with or without the deuce cut, and on optimal the 4, and on offense the 8? |
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Joined: November 2014 (3205 votes) Saturday 8:43 PM
Ditto |
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Joined: January 2021 (1026 votes) Saturday 10:20 PM
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