December 6, 2024
59% 59% | |||||
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| Total votes: 276 | |||||
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Joined: October 2008 (4327 votes) Friday 3:05 AM
not sure what happened here -- should be 100% -- lead 8 Card. 🎱 |
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Joined: February 2009 (1554 votes) Friday 4:26 AM
I’m going to be a bit aggressive here-20 of the remaining 46 cards in the deck get us to at least 10-and any picture cut should ostensibly weaken the crib potential-I also like the pegging flexibility of the Aa4X- could try to lead the picture and bluff a 15 response with a 4 to garner a 15 for 14 if you can handle that stress lol Inushtuk1 says: Say what now? How can we get a 15 for 14 here? Rob? Anybody? Gougie00 says: 4-7-A-A-A-A, except the dealer gets the 14. Inushtuk1 says: True, but Rob said he could try to lead the picture. |
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Joined: February 2009 (1554 votes) Friday 4:26 AM
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Joined: February 2009 (1554 votes) Friday 4:27 AM
Want to wish my DCH friends playing in Virginia Beach this weekend the best of luck-take it down Scott! scottcrib says: 👍 |
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Joined: April 2008 (6629 votes) Friday 4:54 AM
Now at 60/40. Yes I see the twenty faces but add the 5 and 9 that is 20 cuts for eight to thirteen. I could see a trip on aces also. But valid discards. dec |
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Joined: March 2008 (5981 votes) Friday 5:14 AM
Trying it this way. |
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Joined: February 2020 (1086 votes) Friday 5:21 AM
2 of the cards that boost the X-4 toss are in my hand. |
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Joined: March 2016 (2070 votes) Friday 5:28 AM
Let's see what Ras has to say! Rosemarie44 says: I had to change to standard theme. Couldn't read the blue!
Eolus619 says: Rosemarie….oh my gosh..good to see you comment again..❗️❗️👏👏💥 Rosemarie44 says: Eolus619....how are you? I need to get more practice and here is the best place to get it! |
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Joined: May 2024 (241 votes) Friday 5:57 AM
I’m going this way to start the game. |
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Joined: January 2019 (1103 votes) Friday 6:15 AM
I’m in the 4 10 camp. |
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Joined: January 2024 (311 votes) Friday 6:18 AM
Seemed obvious at first, but then I noticed Chambers would pitch 6-8. Has more potential and more risk. MarktheShark says: If you check Brown's histograms below, notice the "median" (which he does not specify outright) is a full two points higher for the 6-8 pitch. |
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Joined: May 2024 (241 votes) Friday 6:38 AM
Lead with the 8. |
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Joined: August 2024 (74 votes) Friday 8:22 AM
with the herd today but commenting to ask about breaking yesterdays double run
I looked up RAS2829's article and found this: As dealer hold 2-6-6-7 and discard 5-X to crib. This one is tricky as does not work the same way with 2-5-6-7-7-X. Ask about this if you don't see the difference between these two double runs and discard choices.I dont see the difference so here I am asking! Eolus619 says: Hello goninnygo...the difference...go to this link below and insert 2-6-6-7..then enter cuts Ace thru X..remember to also count the cut with 5-X discard..record the values. Then reset and enter 5-6-7-7 and enter cuts Ace-X remembering to also add value of the cut to 2-10 discard. Record the values and compare..all the best
http://www.bucktheodds.com/cribbage/score Eolus619 says: Hello goninnygo...the difference...go to this link below and insert 2-6-6-7..then enter cuts Ace thru X..remember to also count the cut with 5-X discard..record the values. Then reset and enter 5-6-7-7 and enter cuts Ace-X remembering to also add value of the cut to 2-10 discard. Record the values and compare..all the best
http://www.bucktheodds.com/cribbage/score Jazzselke says: The big difference is the 3 cut. It helps 2667 but not 2677. And helps 5567. Jazzselke says: The big difference is the 3 cut. It helps 2667 but not 2677. And helps 5567. goninnygo says: Thank you, I plugged it all in and found that in the 66 you would gain 2 points on 3 or 9 cut for the 77 hand only an 8 cut would gain 2
the rest are even. It's a small difference, but I assume this is the difference that is being refered to? goninnygo says: Thank you, I plugged it all in and found that in the 66 you would gain 2 points on 3 or 9 cut for the 77 hand only an 8 cut would gain 2
the rest are even. It's a small difference, but I assume this is the difference that is being refered to? Eolus619 says: one example trey cut...2-6-7-7...no help either hand or crib so = 8
Trey cut 5-6-7-7 turns the three card double run from 8 to 12 and the 2-10 crib from 0 to 2 at least. so 14 points....four cut also makes a considerable difference Eolus619 says: one example trey cut...2-6-7-7...no help either hand or crib so = 8
Trey cut 5-6-7-7 turns the three card double run from 8 to 12 and the 2-10 crib from 0 to 2 at least. so 14 points....four cut also makes a considerable difference Jazzselke says: Correctamundo Jazzselke says: Correctamundo goninnygo says: Ah-I see my error! Thanks y’all! goninnygo says: Ah-I see my error! Thanks y’all! |
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Joined: June 2013 (4164 votes) Friday 8:40 AM
Two six point hands to consider, but I felt 4-X was safer than 6-8. |
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Joined: August 2009 (2251 votes) Friday 9:33 AM
No point in putting 6-8 in dealer's box. So I thought. Until I saw best player here had done that!! |
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Joined: July 2017 (510 votes) Friday 10:14 AM
4,10 to the pones crib should be a balk. |
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Joined: November 2014 (3221 votes) Friday 11:49 AM
keep the middle cards, lead the 8, hope to pair my aces |
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Joined: April 2024 (239 votes) Friday 11:50 AM
Running with the herd today! |
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Joined: February 2016 (132 votes) Friday 2:13 PM
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Joined: July 2016 (1689 votes) Friday 2:18 PM
On 4th Street at say 111-116*, for sure the (6-8) for the extra cuts. At that score we are in desperation offense. Not so here. Our former colleague horus 93 would remind us that we are actually in a balanced position. If we score the average 10 and Dealer the average 16; you could say that at 0-0* we are -8, and Dealer is +8. Colvert described it as Pone -7, and Dealer +9. Either way, it's an Optimal position. So let's not toss (6-8); which doesn't need much help from the cut if Dealer tosses his favourite toss, the (7-8), to become a 24 Crib. Better to slowly chip away at his positional advantage. Lo and behold we have cut a 9. That could have been 16 easily in Dealer's Crib. With two aces out of circulation, it might be a 0-2 point Crib. Lead the 8 and [play on. JQT says: Hi Mike, Your recent analyses have been of the highest caliber for some time now, and I give you Extra ✔ 🎉 Credit that you never used the Economics Term, "Double Marginal" which as far as any research can take us, has no meaning whatsoever in Cribbage! 📜 |
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Joined: February 2016 (132 votes) Friday 2:25 PM
meyers handbook shows best expected average for both dealer and nondealer is the 6 7 toss...cribbage pro hand analyzer has 4 10 toss slightly better for nondealer superdow says: I guess the hand to hold is the one which will provide maximum hand points without too much regard to the crib toss, if one follows Colvert's playing theory (I think). superdow says: Basically Colvert wants to score as many points possible as nondealer trying to catch up. I doubt if he would toss a 55 to dealer even on first hand though in order to gain 1 or 2 points in the hand. Inushtuk1 says: Hi superdow. If that 's what Meyer says, you better get a new book. Better check again. With all due respect, I can't believe that is correct. See Halscrib's analysis below. Eolus619 says: Agree with Mike..have a look at Liam tables for another point of view https://cliambrown.com/cribbage/?data=ACAD4C6S8HTHN&dch
superdow says: LOL Inushtuk your right. I just noticed i was looking at the aa46710 discards instead of the aa67810. Won't need a new book! superdow says: Still I think since the expected hand and pegs of the the AA410 keep exceeds the expected hand and pegs of the AA68 keep by 1/2 point that is the hand to keep if playing offsense. |
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Joined: February 2008 (5536 votes) Friday 2:26 PM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
_______________Our Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W9 %____W10 % A-A-6-8____8.00+1.91+(-4.25)=5.66____26.9____25.7 A-A-4-10___8.61+1.93+(-5.28)=5.26____28.9____25.5 Offense______L9 %____L10 % A-A-6-8_______36.8____48.8 A-A-4-10______39.8____49.8 A-A-6-8 is better for expected averages by 0.40pt. However A-A-4-10 is slightly better for Win %s and although A-A-6-8 is also lower for Loss %s. So I'll 4-10 to discard. After the 9 cut I'll lead the 8 and play Offense: Lead___________Our Pegging Points 8_____________________2.06 6_____________________1.68 A_____________________1.25 |
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