December 17, 2024

*** This hand was suggested by EliteKitten111
106-110*  ?
62%
62%
27%
27%
4%
4%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 279
EliteKitten111Take the risk or play it safe?
JQT

Joined: October 2008 (4323 votes)

Tuesday 3:03 AM
We need Fifteen Points as Pone to WIN, so let's assume that we might be able to peg One Hole, just as we assumed yesterday. This is a slug-fest between Toss (8c 9c) and Toss (8c Js). Just like yesterday, let's get a Hand Mapping of both Discard Choices:

(106-110*) (5c 8c 9c jc js qc) Cut = 2d, by EliteKitten111, Dec 17, 2024. 🐈

Dump the 8c-9c Idea:

Keep (5c Jc Js Qc) and Toss (8c 9c)

Expected Hand Average is 500 DIV 46 = 10.870
(minus) Expected Crib Value (Schell) is 5.830 [don't care]
Total is 10.870 [use Hand Average/ignore Crib]

05x17=085 - 5s, Tc, Ts, Kc, Ks (Maximum Hand, 5 cuts = 17 Points)
06x16=096 - 55, TT, KK (11 cuts >= 16 Points)
02x14=028 - JJ (13 cuts >= 14 Points)
01x13=013 - Qs (14 cuts >= 13 Points)
02x12=024 - QQ (16 cuts >= 12 Points)
14x09=126 - Ac, As, 2c, 2s, 3c, 3s, 4c, 4s, 6c, 6s, 7c, 7s, 8s, 9s (30 cuts >= 9 Points)
16x08=128 - AA, 22, 33, 44, 66, 77, 88, 99 (Minimum Hand, 16 Cuts = 8 Points)
46 ___ 500

* * *

Dump the 8c-Js Idea:

Keep (5c 9c Jc Qc) and Toss (8c Js)

Expected Hand Average is 488 DIV 46 = 10.609
(minus) Expected Crib Value (Schell) is 4.590 [don't care]
Total is 10.609 [use Hand Average/ignore Crib]

01x16=016 - Tc (Maximum Hand, 1 cut = 16 Points)
01x15=015 - Kc (2 cuts >= 15 Points)
06x14=084 - 555, TTT (8 cuts >= 14 Points)
03x13=039 - KKK (11 cuts >= 13 Points)
07x12=084 - Ac, 6c, JJ, QQQ (18 cuts >= 12 Points)
13x10=130 - AAA, 2c, 3c, 4c, 666, 7c, 999 (31 cuts >= 10 Points)
15x08=120 - 222, 333, 444, 777, 888 (Minimum Hand, 15 Cuts = 8 Points)
46 ___ 488

* * *

After Toss (8c 9c), we have Thirteen Cuts (555, TTTT, JJ, KKKK) that will yield Fourteen Points or more, and yet after Toss (8c Js), we have only Eight Cuts (555, TTTT, Kc) that will yield Fourteen Points or more. 🛷

However, if we look at obtaining a Dozen Points, after Toss (8c 9c), we have Sixteen Cuts (555, TTTT, JJ, QQQ, KKKK) that will yield a Dozen Points or more, and yet after Toss (8c Js), we have Eighteen Cuts (Ac, 555, 6c, TTTT, JJ, QQQ, KKKK) that will yield a Dozen Points or more.

The FLUSH is weaker when it comes to outright WINNING Cuts, but it stands up well when we seek a Dozen Points or more, and it also sends less help 'over the board' as well. And the FLUSH should peg slightly better, so this leaves us a bit stymied. If we can peg Three Holes, or if this game goes to another deal, then the FLUSH is perhaps worth trying. But for brute strength, we should hold the stronger hand. 🥊

Keep (5c Jc Js Qc) seems slightly better in brute force, so let's Toss (8c 9c) today. After the Deuce of Diamonds disappointment, we still have just Eight Points in our Hand, and we need to peg (gasp!) Seven Holes in order to WIN. Good luck with that. Lead a Jack, and hope it gets PAIRED; or, lead the Queen, and hope we conclude the pegging with PAIRS Royal for (30-7)! 🌲
MarktheShark

Joined: January 2024 (305 votes)

Tuesday 4:28 AM
We need a big hand to go out before Dealer counts. To flush or not to flush? I am much more suspicious of flushes than most.
Rosemarie44

Joined: March 2016 (2067 votes)

Tuesday 4:32 AM
Decided on this hold but not sure if it's going to be enough with our position on the board. Starter card is not helpful.. Not looking hopeful!
HfxKen

Joined: February 2020 (1083 votes)

Tuesday 4:35 AM
Every once in awhile the Hail Mary works.
scottcrib

Joined: August 2019 (1876 votes)

Tuesday 5:11 AM
Looks like we should have been more aggressive earlier in the game. 😊 This is not a time to play defense into a close loss.
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6625 votes)

Tuesday 5:19 AM
Since holding the dealer from game hole is five to one I will go with the five and face cards cuts. They would have to be twice as far back to even consider something like J-8. Not a question on risk or safe its a more practical solution to me with the scores. Now the Hail Mary pegs come to play. dec
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (5976 votes)

Tuesday 5:51 AM
Yet another "the last train out of town" puzzles. This is the only hold to put me out. The 2 starter is useless. Lead the Jack and hope the dealer hits it.
glmccuskey

Joined: April 2011 (4329 votes)

Tuesday 6:18 AM
Eolus619

Joined: June 2020 (1568 votes)

Tuesday 7:15 AM
hmmm.. 106-110*…I am 15 points out ( n/der avg. is 10) and dealer is 11 away with a 75% chance to earn 12 points ..for me only one choice today …I need a favorable cut..5 or 10 or K to get out ..J gets me 14 ..even if dealer misses ..she/ he has first count next hand ……” it’s not dark yet, but gettin’ there “
Djgoat

Joined: December 2023 (117 votes)

Tuesday 7:20 AM
Seems I'm in the minority here but I opted for 8 with the flush rather than give suited connectors to their crib. That cut is a killer!
Sgt Pegger says: "WE" might be in the minority, but I think in most cases we might also be in the playoffs before the rest here today! I'm with you DJ!
Djgoat says: After last night, the fact that we agree today is encouraging!
Assman

Joined: May 2024 (236 votes)

Tuesday 7:37 AM
Ditto.
wasa

Joined: November 2014 (3218 votes)

Tuesday 7:54 AM
Playing to win. Need my cut!
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4160 votes)

Tuesday 8:18 AM
Would rather have cut the 10 of clubs than the 2 of diamonds.
Sgt Pegger

Joined: July 2017 (506 votes)

Tuesday 9:23 AM
The flush offers us some potential while at the same time does not give the farm away with the toss to the crib. If we cut a 10c or Kc, and if we peg just a simple go, this game is ours. The cut hurt us .....today, but I submit that there are more cards in the deck that can help us, than hurt us. Today, we cut stuck.
Sgt Pegger says: Got stuck
Djgoat says: After last night, the fact that we agree today is encouraging!
sharp21

Joined: January 2010 (308 votes)

Tuesday 9:49 AM
Wow played that one just right today!
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5531 votes)

Tuesday 2:57 PM
At 106-110* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs_Crib____Total___Win %___Loss %
5-9-JC-Q___10.61+1.37+(-4.32)=7.66____32.8____67.2
5-8-JC-Q___10.52+1.39+(-4.82)=7.09____30.1____69.9
5-J-J-Q____10.52+1.33+(-5.71)=6.14____33.7____66.3

Although 5-9-JC-Q is best for expected averages by 0.57pt. over 5-8-JC-Q and 1.52pt. over 5-J-J-Q, 5-J-J-Q is slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. At this point in the game the Win/Loss 5s are more important so I'll select 8-9 to discard.

After the 2D cut I'll lead the JC and play Offense:

Lead___________Our Pegging Points
J______________________1.52
Q______________________1.50
5______________________1.23
Andy (muesli64)

Joined: August 2009 (2251 votes)

Tuesday 4:29 PM
Only chance?