Wednesday 3:58 AM

I don't see 6-9 or discarding a five to add to a score with a four or a face card cut for more positive points for our scoring position. Ten lead. dec

Wednesday 4:27 AM

No flush. 3-9 or 6-9 seem best for hand meld; a good cut would help 3-6 or 3-T. Try for the easier double run or face card. After the cut, lead the Ten and peg a few.

Wednesday 4:37 AM

The flush 56910 has the highest expectation for points. And that is what we are interested in.

Wednesday 5:05 AM

The last train out of town again. Keeping the 556 together. Lead the 10 and induce some pegging

Wednesday 5:30 AM

Wednesday 5:45 AM

All of the X cards unaccounted for, made me disregard the tempting flush.

Wednesday 6:00 AM

We need Thirteen Points as Pone to WIN, so let's assume that we might be able to peg ⛳ One Hole, just as we assumed yesterday and the day before. This is a slug-fest between Toss (3c 5d) and Toss (3c 9c). Just as previously, let's get a Hand Mapping of both Discard Choices:

(108-104*) (3c 5d 5c 6c 9c Tc) Cut = 2d, by scottcrib, Dec 18, 2024.

Dump the 3c-5d Idea:

Keep (5c 6c 9c Tc) and Toss (3c 5d)

Expected Hand Average is 508 DIV 46 = 11.043
(minus) Expected Crib Value (Schell) is 6.780 [don't care]
Total is 11.043 [use Hand Average/ignore Crib]

02x14=028 - 4c, Jc (Maximum Hand, 2 cuts = 14 Points)
06x13=078 - 444, JJJ (8 cuts >= 13 Points)
13x12=156 - 55, 666, 7c, 8c, 999, TTT (21 cuts >= 12 Points)
09x11=099 - Ac, 777, 888, Qc, Kc (30 cuts >= 11 Points)
09x10=090 - AAA, QQQ, KKK (39 cuts >= 10 Points)
01x09=009 - 2c (40 cuts >= 9 Points)
06x08=048 - 222, 333 (Minimum Hand, 6 Cuts = 8 Points)
46 ___ 508

* * *

Dump the 3c-9c Idea:

Keep (5d 5c 6c Tc) and Toss (3c 9c)

Expected Hand Average is 434 DIV 46 = 9.435
(minus) Expected Crib Value (Schell) is 4.870 [don't care]
Total is 9.435 [use Hand Average/ignore Crib]

04x16=064 - 4444 (Maximum Hand, 4 cuts = 16 Points)
02x14=028 - 55 (6 cuts >= 14 Points)
07x12=084 - 7777, TTT (13 cuts >= 12 Points)
12x10=120 - JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK (25 cuts >= 10 Points)
06x08=048 - 666, 999 (31 cuts >= 8 Points)
15x06=090 - AAAA, 2222, 333, 8888 (Minimum Hand, 15 Cuts = 6 Points)
46 ___ 434

* * *

After Toss (3c 5d), we have Eight Cuts (4444, JJJJ) that will yield Thirteen Points or more, and yet after Toss (3c 9c), in spite of the ability to obtain Sixteen Points after Four Cuts (4444), we have only Six Cuts (4444, 55) that will yield Fourteen Points or more. 🎪

Toss (3 9) sends less help 'over the board' but it's less than a difference of Two Points. I think we should hold the FLUSH as the much stronger hand. 🏆

Let's Toss (3c 5d) today. After the Queen of Spades Cut Card, we have Ten Points in our Hand, and we need to peg Three Holes in order to WIN. Lead the Ten "T" Card, and if we cannot peg Three Holes, try not to give up more than One Hole to the Dealer. 🍹

Wednesday 6:31 AM

The Flush has the highest potential for points with many cuts. We only need 13 points to go out.

Wednesday 6:41 AM

Keep the hand that has the best chance to get 12+. JQT summarizes it nicely.

Wednesday 6:42 AM

Very interesting score. I decided to take an approach that I feel gives me the option to go for it this hand while still potentially keeping dealer below average and have the chance to peg out next hand.

I think it's very close between the 3-9 and flush (3-5). Either way I believe we're still < 50% to get a dozen, so we're likely to be pegging to get out, and that's not my strong suit.

If I absolutely wanted to go out this hand I'm keeping the flush and sending the 3-5 (maybe if dealer were at 107/108?). Today, I'll send over the 3-9 and with the Q cut will lead the 10.

Wednesday 6:48 AM

hmmmmm…a learning day for me ..I will add Scott’s fine puzzle to my log book under the heading “don’t really know what to do” incidentally those pages are getting crowded with examples ..my thinking today is …n/der has a 25% chance to earn 13 points ..Dealer has a 50% chance to earn 16 points..why “aide” dealer getting 16 by tossing 3-5 that averages nearly 7 ( sorry JQT….I decided to care about this ..maybe mistakenly !) AND..also apologies to Al Miller ..going to try to make it to next hand being close enough to peg out. If I needed the win to make the playoffs..upon further review ..I very well might chose the flush.

Wednesday 7:08 AM

Keeping the juicy flush. Lead the T.

Wednesday 7:46 AM

Splitting the baby only because the dealer is 17 out. 2 points or more closer I would then keep the flush.

Wednesday 8:51 AM

Eight points pre-cut, with reasonable chances at more afterwards.

Wednesday 9:07 AM

Going for the win, and didn't want to get trapped in pegging.

Wednesday 9:09 AM

The flush is my choice today. Only the A,2 are of no help. If we cut a 5,6,9,10 then all we need is a simple "go" and we win! I see too many opportunities with this hold that say, "go for it". Either the 6 or the 10 lead which always depends upon who's in that seat across from me.

Wednesday 9:43 AM

I wanted to go with the 5, 6, 9 , 10 flush but really didn't want to put a 5 in their crib so went this way.