December 19, 2024

*** This hand was suggested by icrib4fun
83-93*  ?
52%
52%
22%
22%
12%
12%
8%
8%
3%
3%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 274
JQT

Joined: October 2008 (4323 votes)

Thursday 3:18 AM
We need Thirteen Points as Pone to reach the Fourth Street Par Hole 96, and our Dealer Opponent is currently a few holes "shy" of having reached this same critical target. Do we dare risk the perils of Toss (5 6) in order to retain the FLUSH with its Nine Points, or shall we go the SAFE route with Toss (2 T) and begin with just Six Points? 🌻

Keep (3 4 5 6) does extremely well after a Dozen Cuts (333, 444, 555, 666), which is more than ONE-FOURTH of the remaining deck, and it also gets help after EVERY POSSIBLE CUT! The FLUSH is a few points STRONGER, but we could only hold it at great risk. πŸ›΄

I don't believe we can be SKUNKED after either choice. If the Dealer was either farther back or farther ahead, I would probably risk holding the FLUSH; in the former instance to try to WIN, and in the latter instance in order to reduce those Spread Points by which we would LOSE. But at this Relative Score, we can try to WIN and we can attempt to mitigate any damage should we LOSE by being patient. πŸ§œπŸ»β€β™€οΈ

Let's Toss (2 T) today, and proceed without being reckless. After the Four of Hearts Cut Card, we now have Sixteen Points, which exceeds our target! Let's lead the 4 Card and peg tentatively. 🩰
JQT says: Errata: After the Four of Hearts Cut Card, we now have Fourteen Points, not Sixteen Points; unless we peg πŸ“πŸ“πŸ•³πŸ•³ Two Holes, and then we'll have Sixteen Points! 🍨
MarktheShark

Joined: January 2024 (305 votes)

Thursday 3:44 AM
With Dealer short of position, I am certainly not willing to feed his crib. With that fantastic cut, we are back in position and should peg cautiously, if possible!
Rosemarie44

Joined: March 2016 (2067 votes)

Thursday 4:25 AM
Keeping the small run and not tossing 5/6 to dealer. Flush is definitely not the best choice to hold in your hand.
Jazzselke

Joined: March 2009 (2740 votes)

Thursday 4:27 AM
3, 4 or 5 cuts for 14; 6 cut for 16. Ok chance vs the risk of giving up 56.
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6625 votes)

Thursday 4:37 AM
Even getting eight points after here could induce some pegging if necessary. The 5/6 is off the books. dec
RubyTuesday

Joined: January 2019 (1101 votes)

Thursday 4:45 AM
Being cautious, like the rest of you.
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (5976 votes)

Thursday 5:44 AM
Not really much of a decision.
Do I play defense here?
Ras2829 says: Hi Gougie00: Think of you often and miss our daily chit-chat in times past. Have seldom been available recently as have assumed a long list of duties not previous encountered. Hope things are well with you and have a very Merry Christmas. Your question as to playing defense is a timely one. I learned some years ago to assess strategy needs at three points. Where do you need to be for the upcoming deal? Your goal is to deal the next hand from 4th street CPZ (95-99). Your pegs are at hole 83 and you need to deal from minimum of 95. N/D average for hand/pegs is 9/10 points. So, the pegs have hollered out "offense"! Now that the cards have been dealt, what do they suggest? N/D can retain 6 or 7 points. The call is "Offense"! Now all that n/d awaits is a starter card. That gives n/d 14 points with a need to deal from (95-99). So, the call now is for defense as will have the deal at minimum of 97. So, the choice of strategy when viewing pegs and cards dealt was offense. Now after knowing of 14 points, sans any pegs, the strategy becomes one of peg avoidance. Previously, the strategy need was "go for it, go for it. Now the choice is a clear whoa!" And it should not be surprising that strategy needs may be altered at any of those decision points (pegs, cards, and starter).
Eolus619 says: oh my gosh…Ras….soooooo good to see you postπŸ’₯
Inushtuk1 says: Hear hear.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. Half way down your comment in GougieOO's post, you left out N/D can retain 6 or 7 or *9* points. After all we were on Offense on seeing the pegs, and the cards. I guess that shows us just how dangerous (5-6) is to the opponent's Crib. Plus he's only short by 2 pegs.
Rosemarie44 says: Hi Ras. Miss you. So good to hear from you on DCH.
Gougie00 says: Rhetorical question. I was all out offense, and now it's defense with a cluster. Good luck doing that.
Ras2829 says: Hi Gougie00: It is also a question of benefit too many. You have a great deal of playing experience and success in this wonderful game. You've got it! And there are others who are just learning how to walk.
Djgoat

Joined: December 2023 (117 votes)

Thursday 5:54 AM
While the flush is tempting we can't afford to being giving gifts in the crib at this stage. This appears to be the safest play.
Eolus619 says: Morning Djgoat..your β€œsafe” discard comment makes your thread a good place for a review of Ras’s list of lowest average n/der β€œsafe β€œ discards ..thx for letting me tag on to your comments https://www.cribbage.org/NewSite/tips/rasmussen7.asp
HfxKen

Joined: February 2020 (1083 votes)

Thursday 6:00 AM
I got the cut, now what do I lead with?
glmccuskey

Joined: April 2011 (4329 votes)

Thursday 7:02 AM
I be the first to throw the more defensive 6-10.
wasa

Joined: November 2014 (3218 votes)

Thursday 8:04 AM
No flush today. Pondered the 6-T vs 2-T but I liked keeping the 4-5-6 combo and six points.
Inushtuk1

Joined: July 2016 (1687 votes)

Thursday 8:20 AM
The flush is way too risky with Dealer only 2 or 3 pegs short. Now we can switch to Defense, as we will be dealing at 97 in the worst case scenario. I will lead the 3 hoping Dealer makes the percentage play.
Eolus619 says: Morning Mike..what is the +/- with regard to this score?..thanks
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4160 votes)

Thursday 8:24 AM
Seems I'm out of step today.
Is that cut a help or hindrance?
Gougie00 says: With 456 in the dealer's crib, we'll be hearing an explosion pretty soon.
Assman

Joined: May 2024 (236 votes)

Thursday 10:09 AM
😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭
asevenson

Joined: August 2011 (3112 votes)

Thursday 10:22 AM
In this camp today. Above comments apropos and cogent as usual.
Sgt Pegger

Joined: July 2017 (506 votes)

Thursday 10:33 AM
Running with the herd today and for the same reasons.
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5531 votes)

Thursday 12:59 PM
At 83-93* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total___W2 %____W3 %
3-4-5-6_____9.85+(-2.98)+(-4.28)=2.59_____6.7____29.0
2-3-4-10___12.15+(-2.83)+(-7.32)=2.00____10.2____29.1
2-3-4-5_____8.54+(-2.67)+(-4.17)=1.70_____4.3____27.3
2-4-5-6_____8.46+(-2.72)+(-4.29)=1.45_____4.3____26.2

Defense______L2 %____L3 %
3-4-5-6_______32.3___63.0
2-3-4-10______46.5___65.0
2-3-4-5_______31.7___66.3
2-4-5-6_______31.7___67.4

3-4-5-6 is best for expected averages by 0.59pt. but 2-3-4-10 is appreciably Win %s. However, 3-4-5-6 is also very much lower for loss %s so I'll select the 2-10 to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll lead the 5 and play Optimally:

Lead__________Net Pegging Points_____Loss %
3_____________________(-0.99)_________0.4
4_____________________(-1.10)_________0.4
6_____________________(-1.61)_________0.5
5_____________________(-2.10)_________0.3

Although the 3 lead is best for Net Pegging Points, the 5 lead is fractionally lowest for Loss %s.
31for14

Joined: May 2019 (766 votes)

Thursday 3:32 PM
Might be my new favorite hand after holding it and cutting the 6 in the final 4 of GN to prevent elimination.