January 8, 2025

*** This hand was suggested by Shotrock3
0-0*  ?
40%
40%
25%
25%
18%
18%
6%
6%
6%
6%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 294
Shotrock3Are we always keeping the flush?
MarktheShark

Joined: January 2024 (331 votes)

Wednesday 3:23 AM
Generally, I am not a fan of flushes, and definitely not on this hand because of the forced 4-6 pitch. Will lead the diamond 6 and hope the 5 trap works.
MarktheShark says: I wonder why the lead option (A or 5) seems split between the commenters holding this keep. Is it too early in the game to try for the standard 5-trap? Do your opponents not play their 5 against an Ace lead? Do your opponents tend to hold 4 face cards?
MarktheShark says: For those not familiar with it, the 5-trap works whenever you hold 4-6-6 and any other card and the Dealer holds 5-X-X-X, a not uncommon holding. Lead the 6. Dealer will play an X card, to avoid giving you an immediate run. Play your second 6, bringing the count up to 22. Dealer is now forced to play his 5, which allows you to play your 4 for a 31-2 and a run of 3 for a total of 5 holes.
MarktheShark says: ... lead option (A or 6) ...
MarktheShark says: ... lead option (4 or 6) ... [sorry, the A looks like a 4 in my font]
Ras2829 says: Hi MarktheShark: If pegging offensivley from this arrangement always lead a six as will often result in 31-5. If you would be satisfied with four pegs, lead Ace or four, score 15-2, and close the count with 6 for 31-2. Like five pegs better than four?
MarktheShark says: Thanks Ras. As an aggressive pegger, particularly when I am holding no meld, the 6 seemed so obvious that I wondered why others were not leading it.
MiketheExpert says: Hi Mark, to answer your question, at least for me, the 6 lead seems to be too often answered with the 9 for 15-2, and then I'm left with no satisfactory response, while I still may have the chance to salvage something with the more "standard" A or 4 lead from my magic-11. But the A will fail against some of the more frequent 5-5-X-X or 5-X-X-X combos held by dealer (failing meaning a missed opportunity to score 4 or 5 pts with the 5 trap). However the A lead may also keep a more interesting variety of options open to score points on many other pegging hands which could be held by dealer.
MarktheShark says: Thanks Mike. My opponents do not always play or have what they are supposed to either, but I will take my chances during the opening salvos to try to gain an early advantage by using my pegging skills. Leading an Ace against the 5XXX type hands too often ends up with a pegging result of 1-to-1 when an experienced Dealer knows to dump his 5 immediately. (Against an inexperienced Dealer, I might lead the Ace and hope for the 15-2 and 31-2 or other pegging chances.) Becomes very interesting when Dealer holds some of the less likely 456-type hands instead, where the 6 lead might be safer than the Ace.
glmccuskey

Joined: April 2011 (4351 votes)

Wednesday 5:21 AM
I would lead the ace from this hand hopping for a 15 and a 31.
Djgoat

Joined: December 2023 (138 votes)

Wednesday 5:25 AM
Tough one with just a little potential but its early so I'll reach a bit. I think only a 7 is dead cut so there are a least a couple of points coming if we don't get the gut shot
Sgt Pegger says: I'm with you DJ
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (6002 votes)

Wednesday 5:26 AM
hedge.
JQT

Joined: October 2008 (4348 votes)

Wednesday 5:45 AM
FLUSH would be Second Choice. šŸ“
JQT says: Hopefully we can "Call Toronto" against our Opponent today by playing Area Code (4 1 6) and pegging (15-2) plus (31-2).
Rosemarie44

Joined: March 2016 (2085 votes)

Wednesday 6:00 AM
Best hold for improvement and safe toss to dealer.
Assman

Joined: May 2024 (262 votes)

Wednesday 6:24 AM
Ditto.
Assman says: Lead with a 6?
Inushtuk1

Joined: July 2016 (1709 votes)

Wednesday 6:25 AM
The answer to the submitter's question is no. On Defense i like the flush, as i think it will be hard to read. On Offense I like the A-4-6-6, and because I'm on Offense I will lead the 6d. I'm not so much chasing the gut shot, though I wouldn't turn my nose up at it; but I like the Sweet Sixteen 5 Card Trap here. If I don't get the X-Card response I will try to fake the flush next, and keep the 4-6 intact.
wasa

Joined: November 2014 (3241 votes)

Wednesday 7:19 AM
Interesting. Answering the OP's questions, yes, I am always keeping the flush in this situation. Really surprised more people who have commented have not chosen the flush. Maybe I'll learn something today, but probably not.
Eolus619 says: morning wasaā€¦just taking the other side to address your ā€œsurpriseā€ ..the flush gets cut help from A-4-5-6-9-10-J-Q A-4-6-6 gets cut help from A-2-3-4-5-6-8-9-10-J-Q-Kā€¦& it would also depend on how ā€œdefensiveā€ a discard n/der wants to make ..i would say taking advantage of 12/13 ranks helping the cut makes the choice for many to not pick the flush..just my devils advocate ..all the best
wasa says: Hi Eolus. Thanks for the comment. I would note that since the flush starts with 4 points and the A-4-6-6 starts with 2 points, any cut that has the latter jump to 4 points should be excluded from your analysis. So, A-4-6-6 increases to more than 4 with the cus of 5 and 6 only. So flush gives me more than 4 points with 8 cuts (plus all of the diamonds) but the A-4-6-6 gets more than 4 points with the 5 and 6. To me, it makes sense to hold the flush here....
Eolus619 says: got it wasa...the sharing of thoughts...that's the beauty of DCH..let the voters decide!!!
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4182 votes)

Wednesday 7:38 AM
6-Q from me.
4-A-6 combo might peg 15/2 and 31/2.
Eolus619 says: Hello..James500ā€¦..6-Q is 4th lowest average discard for n/der https://www.cribbage.org/NewSite/tips/rasmussen7.asp
Eolus619

Joined: June 2020 (1592 votes)

Wednesday 7:42 AM
When cut help comes from 12/13 ranks, I will go against Ras ā€˜s advice about not playing for a favorable cut ā€¦and 10-Q makes Rasā€™s lowest average balking discard list .. 4-6 does not

https://www.cribbage.org/NewSite/tips/rasmussen7.asp
Sgt Pegger

Joined: July 2017 (529 votes)

Wednesday 8:27 AM
Only the 7 misses this. I will lead with the 4
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6670 votes)

Wednesday 8:31 AM
When you can get a gain out of the thirty six cards remaining possible and a potentially good pegging hand I will go with this keep. Six lead for the possible 6-5-4 run. dec
ryman554 says: I don't understand what you mean by the 6-5-4 run... No dealer in their right mind would play a 5 to a lead-off 6.... unless they were holding a quartet of fives! As above, lead the 4 for a possible X reply (that reply wouldn't be near my first choice either, tho that's better than the 5 reply here too)
MarktheShark says: Hi ryman554. See my 5-trap comments near the top. The run happens later. Dealer is trapped any time he holds 5XXX, 55XX, 555X, 5555.
Eolus619 says: HI Ryman554...yes read Mark above and..a very detailed discussion of pegging traps can be found in 'Play Winning Cribbage' starting on page 43
MarktheShark says: If you do not have Colvert's book, visit the ACC website for his playing tips ... https://www.cribbage.org/NewSite/tips/colvert3.asp
jmudge

Joined: July 2020 (906 votes)

Wednesday 11:36 AM
The flush was tempting, but I like the lower (non-face) cards.
fentesk

Joined: January 2021 (1464 votes)

Wednesday 1:45 PM
As game's first non-dealer, given I expect the overall performance of the two hands (flush vs Q-10) to be similar, I'll take the more offensive of the two, which is the flush.

I don't hate Q-10, but today will take the guaranteed 4 (and more likely for 6) instead of my instinctual defensive hold.

If playing offense, the 5 cut (which is a main fear of tossing 4-6) isn't a disaster for this flush (though if you're guaranteeing the 5 I'll toss A-Q).
Ras2829

Joined: November 2008 (5406 votes)

Wednesday 1:55 PM
Oft holding two points with good offensive pegging potential is preferable to holding four points. So, it is this day. Lead a red 6. Any time dealer holding 5-X-X-X or similar. And in this case, n/d gets to toss 10-Q. Only 6/91 discards score 0-2 in excess of 40% on the other side of the board. And 10-Q is one of those!
Ras2829 says: Of course, as n/d of hand one, choice of strategy is offense.
JQT

Joined: October 2008 (4348 votes)

Wednesday 2:47 PM
Here are a few Pegging Examples with today's (A 4 6 6) Hand: šŸŒ±

As previously mentioned, I call the (4 A 6) play "Getting Toronto" since (4 1 6) is a popular Area Code for that International City. šŸŒ‡

(A 4 6 6) Against Dealer with (X X X X):
Pegging: 4 (4) X (13) A (15-2) X (25) 6 (21-2), X (10), 6 (16) X (26=1), We out-peg Dealer 4-to-1. Note that we could have also led the Ace, but if the Dealer holds one or two 5 Cards, these could be unloaded early if we lead the Ace.

The (6 6 4) play is the area code for Montserrat, a lesser-known British Overseas Territory in the Caribbean. Unlike (4 1 6), which was one of the first Area Codes, (6 6 4) was created in 1996. Here is a Dealer Hand that works better if we attempt to play (4 1 6):

(A 4 6 6) Against Dealer with (6 6 9 9):
Pegging: 4 (4) 9 (13) 6 (19) 6 (25=2) 6 (31-8), 6 (6) A (7) 9 (16=1), We out-peg Dealer 8-to-3. That could have gone really badly if we led the 6 Card!

(A 4 6 6) Against Dealer with (5 X X X):
Pegging: 6 (6) X (16) 6 (22) 5 (27) 4 (31-5), X (10) A (11) X (21=1), We out-peg Dealer 5-to-1.
JQT says: Summary: Leading the 4 Card seems like the way to avoid trouble, and possibly peg a bundle. šŸŽˆ
MarktheShark says: A colleague had to be rescued from Montserrat when the volcano blew in the mid-90s, devastating the island. I remember Ras mentioning long ago that the 5XXX hand happens maybe 1 time in 4, which is very much more likely than the 6699 hand, and why I lead the 6 offensively. Leading the 4 outpegs an experienced Dealer only 3-to-1 (4-X-A-5!-6/X-6-X). For those who lead the Ace and see Dealer play his 5 (as he should), you could be in trouble.
JQT says: That's all wonderful, real-world information, Mark! šŸ§
RubyTuesday

Joined: January 2019 (1115 votes)

Wednesday 3:23 PM
10 Q to dealerā€™s crib, for reasons already explained above.
Andy (muesli64)

Joined: August 2009 (2261 votes)

Wednesday 4:24 PM
Andy (muesli64) says: I'm on the offensive
MiketheExpert

Joined: April 2021 (1275 votes)

Wednesday 6:29 PM
The (T Q) discard gets help from 12/13 ranks and keeps the much coveted (A 4 6) magic-11 combo as pone which often picks up a quick 15-2 and 31-2, combined with a relatively safe discard. This more than compensates for starting with the 4-pt flush, which has a more dangerous (4 6) discard and slim prospects for offensive pegging. 2nd place for me is almost a toss-up between the flush and discarding the balking (6 Q) unsuited. The (6 Q) will damage the overall hand strength relative to the flush, however we maintain our magic-11 while throwing a top-tier discard to dealer's crib.
MiketheExpert says: I am partial to leading the A here on offense.
MiketheExpert says: The 4 lead is also not poor on offense, and may keep some more ways to escape trouble, for people who are not inclined to get into a pegging war off the bat. Exchanging pegs may or may not be to our advantage after this cut. I will follow a 5 reply to my A lead with the 6, keeping intact multiple ways to score a run, or triple for 6 a pair response by dealer.