Thursday 3:15 AM

Toss (4 7) unsuited is most DEFENSIVE while also helping us survive the pegging, Lead the 4 Card.

Thursday 4:18 AM

Taking the chance that AA won't toast me.

Thursday 4:30 AM

I am not banking on another four cut. I have a fairly good check lead in a four and hope I can keep dealer with ten or less. dec

Thursday 5:17 AM

I’m with Gougie today, aces to dealer’s crib.

Thursday 5:49 AM

Since I am holding 2 fours I don't have a hard time tossing As to their crib.

Thursday 6:02 AM

I'm with Dec today thinking defense. Leading the in pegging. Not sure if I would play my other 4 if they pair it, but leaning towards no.

Thursday 7:03 AM

Keeping my points, and no way I'm tossing 7's. Negative delta since I have 2 of the 4's to tamp down the A's with faces in the crib.

Thursday 7:13 AM

Seems obvious to pitch A-A, but I suspect pitching 4-4 will meld and peg better. My only other real option is to try to balk the crib with the A-7, hoping to go out when I am Pone again. Can my crystal ball see an A or 4 as the cut card?

Thursday 7:15 AM

No way I'm giving the dealer any points here. Max defense from me. Lead the 4.

Thursday 7:19 AM

Thinking tossing the aces are safer. Kept the points.

Thursday 8:00 AM

I can see the A-A discard..However, today, with this dire board position, I will play Colvert’s %s. Cribbage hippocratic oath, “First do no intentional harm to oneself.” Dealer has 75% chance to earn 12 points. N/Der sending an actual two points to the crib makes that a higher chance of happening. So 4-7 defensive discard it is. Cut help from 12/13 ranks. If you play enough cribbage, you come to realize, when playing as current dealer earning 21 points in two hands can NOT happen. So 🤞current dealer comes up short.

Thursday 9:06 AM

I'm not ready to throw caution to the wind yet. Dig in and hunker down and only take the safe peggers. I will lead a 4.

Thursday 9:12 AM

This is not most defensive, but has more cuts for 8 or more this way. Lead the 4h to go with my Ah for the flush fake for what it's worth. Now what to do if my 4 is paired? I will not chance tripling it. I will play my 7 for (15-2). But now the flush fake is gone.

Thursday 10:07 AM

I like my chances better to hold dealer short, than to hit a 2/46 cut. Slight preference to 7A over 74, but I could be swayed there. Not sure of the math on average crib with these cards specifically in the hold.

Assuming I’m playing someone of quality, with the face card cut, I’m leading from my pair, because they’ll be taking anything here, unless they just have a monster hand.

Thursday 11:11 AM

Excellent puzzle today-it hurts putting all my eggs in the basket of my opponent getting a subpar hand but I think that’s the better percentage play here-we have 2 cuts out of 46 to get 20 with either a 4 or 7 cut( whether we keep AA77 or 4477)- not exactly scintillating-we have good negative delta with the A7 and a pretty good defensive pegging hand-will go down fighting this way

Thursday 2:04 PM

Bit like a bad dream. Can see from above I probably have got it wrong. Just hope AA only gives dealer two points.

Thursday 6:19 PM

Well, I think the chances to pull this out by defense with dealer in good position at hole 100, although not good, are still better than by throwing any pair, or holding (A A 7 7) and praying for a miracle 7 cut for 20 pts, which will put us 1 hole away from pegging out for the win. Thus, it is between the (4 7) and (A 7) discards unsuited. (4 7) is the "safest" discard, but only leaves us with a starting 2 pts, and there are still quite a few cuts which will either not help or only add an additional 2 pts. So, I'd rather start with 4, and even with scant help this should give me some chance as dealer of next hand even if I'm stuck pegging only 1 or none. As it is (A 4 4 7) offers a decent lead in one of the 4's, and after the K cut, I can play full-on defense trying to limit dealer's pegs, while also providing promising chances of balking the dealer's crib.