January 9, 2025
55% 55% | |||||
21% 21% | |||||
8% 8% | |||||
7% 7% | |||||
2% 2% | |||||
1% 1% | |||||
0% 0% | |||||
0% 0% | |||||
0% 0% | |||||
0% 0% | |||||
Total votes: 304 |
Joined: October 2008 (4348 votes) Thursday 3:15 AM
Toss (4 7) unsuited is most DEFENSIVE while also helping us survive the pegging, Lead the 4 Card. JQT says: Close or Tied Game anywhere near the Last Corner (Hole 90), Pone Plays DEFENSE and Dealer Plays OFFENCE. |
Joined: March 2008 (6002 votes) Thursday 4:18 AM
Taking the chance that AA won't toast me. Eolus619 says: Greg. the Yoda philosophy has served you very well. Gougie00 says: Master Yoda was a curmudgeon as well. Hoping I never get like that. |
Joined: April 2008 (6670 votes) Thursday 4:30 AM
I am not banking on another four cut. I have a fairly good check lead in a four and hope I can keep dealer with ten or less. dec |
Joined: January 2019 (1115 votes) Thursday 5:17 AM
I’m with Gougie today, aces to dealer’s crib. |
Joined: December 2023 (138 votes) Thursday 5:49 AM
Since I am holding 2 fours I don't have a hard time tossing As to their crib. |
Joined: August 2024 (82 votes) Thursday 6:02 AM
I'm with Dec today thinking defense. Leading the in pegging. Not sure if I would play my other 4 if they pair it, but leaning towards no. goninnygo says: Leading the *4* in pegging |
Joined: March 2020 (1104 votes) Thursday 7:03 AM
Keeping my points, and no way I'm tossing 7's. Negative delta since I have 2 of the 4's to tamp down the A's with faces in the crib.
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Joined: January 2024 (331 votes) Thursday 7:13 AM
Seems obvious to pitch A-A, but I suspect pitching 4-4 will meld and peg better. My only other real option is to try to balk the crib with the A-7, hoping to go out when I am Pone again. Can my crystal ball see an A or 4 as the cut card? dph says: I'll settle for a 6. |
Joined: August 2019 (1902 votes) Thursday 7:15 AM
No way I'm giving the dealer any points here. Max defense from me. Lead the 4. |
Joined: March 2016 (2085 votes) Thursday 7:19 AM
Thinking tossing the aces are safer. Kept the points. |
Joined: June 2020 (1592 votes) Thursday 8:00 AM
I can see the A-A discard..However, today, with this dire board position, I will play Colvert’s %s. Cribbage hippocratic oath, “First do no intentional harm to oneself.” Dealer has 75% chance to earn 12 points. N/Der sending an actual two points to the crib makes that a higher chance of happening. So 4-7 defensive discard it is. Cut help from 12/13 ranks. If you play enough cribbage, you come to realize, when playing as current dealer earning 21 points in two hands can NOT happen. So 🤞current dealer comes up short. Eolus619 says: For those who discard the As..fine by me..a friendly reminder..of Ras’s ten most frequent dealer discards..7/8..2/3…6/7…A/2…A/3…6/8…are potential problems .. however..as Gougie00 says..you can’t defend for everything
Gougie00 says: Master Yoda (Al Miller) would say, "You can play defense into a close loss". Cannot be too cautious and even your "safe" 4-7 discard could go *BOOM* in the crib. I'm a firm believer in not getting cute. Eolus619 says: ‼️👍 |
Joined: July 2017 (529 votes) Thursday 9:06 AM
I'm not ready to throw caution to the wind yet. Dig in and hunker down and only take the safe peggers. I will lead a 4. |
Joined: July 2016 (1709 votes) Thursday 9:12 AM
This is not most defensive, but has more cuts for 8 or more this way. Lead the 4h to go with my Ah for the flush fake for what it's worth. Now what to do if my 4 is paired? I will not chance tripling it. I will play my 7 for (15-2). But now the flush fake is gone. Eolus619 says: good board position puzzle Mike ..thx Inushtuk1 says: Thanks Bruce. Now I remember my reason for this submission. I was looking at some old submissions, and noticed this one from the 25th of June 2011,(way before my time). The score back then was 100-95*. Ras chose as I did today, but said,"If dealer or I was another five holes down the board would have held 4-4-7-7. I thought that was wrong. So I'm hoping Ras will come on today, and see my comment here, and explain. MiketheExpert says: I'd hold (A-A-7-7) if dealer was another 2-3 pegs in front of us here. MiketheExpert says: No, probably (4-4-7-7). Can still earn 20 pts with another 4 being cut, and (A A) has a slightly better chance of saving the crib than putting (4 4) in there. Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: Fine puzzle including all elements of significance. |
Joined: January 2012 (1311 votes) Thursday 10:07 AM
I like my chances better to hold dealer short, than to hit a 2/46 cut. Slight preference to 7A over 74, but I could be swayed there. Not sure of the math on average crib with these cards specifically in the hold.
Assuming I’m playing someone of quality, with the face card cut, I’m leading from my pair, because they’ll be taking anything here, unless they just have a monster hand. Eolus619 says: hello jmath..A-7 & 4-7 both average 4.4 across the board
https://cliambrown.com/cribbage/?data=AHAD4H4D7H7DN&dch |
Joined: February 2009 (1573 votes) Thursday 11:11 AM
Excellent puzzle today-it hurts putting all my eggs in the basket of my opponent getting a subpar hand but I think that’s the better percentage play here-we have 2 cuts out of 46 to get 20 with either a 4 or 7 cut( whether we keep AA77 or 4477)- not exactly scintillating-we have good negative delta with the A7 and a pretty good defensive pegging hand-will go down fighting this way |
Joined: August 2009 (2261 votes) Thursday 2:04 PM
Bit like a bad dream. Can see from above I probably have got it wrong. Just hope AA only gives dealer two points. |
Joined: April 2021 (1275 votes) Thursday 6:19 PM
Well, I think the chances to pull this out by defense with dealer in good position at hole 100, although not good, are still better than by throwing any pair, or holding (A A 7 7) and praying for a miracle 7 cut for 20 pts, which will put us 1 hole away from pegging out for the win. Thus, it is between the (4 7) and (A 7) discards unsuited. (4 7) is the "safest" discard, but only leaves us with a starting 2 pts, and there are still quite a few cuts which will either not help or only add an additional 2 pts. So, I'd rather start with 4, and even with scant help this should give me some chance as dealer of next hand even if I'm stuck pegging only 1 or none. As it is (A 4 4 7) offers a decent lead in one of the 4's, and after the K cut, I can play full-on defense trying to limit dealer's pegs, while also providing promising chances of balking the dealer's crib. |