Friday 3:38 AM

Here goes. Don't shoot the messenger. Does anyone really know how Ras thinks.

Friday 3:51 AM

I thought of throwing 9 9, looked at the discard tables and hastily changed my mind and threw myself 2 3.

Friday 4:24 AM

I’m with the crowd today

Friday 4:24 AM

It's the Middle Friday (or the Third of Five Fridays) of January 2025, and RAS has 'set the table' with a splendid Cribbage Puzzle for us Baseball Fans. (For those who play Poker, there is a Seven-Card Stud Variant called "Baseball" in which the Treys and 9 Cards are "Wild," and this puzzle seems very reminiscent of that variation!) ⚾

(*) Incidentally, it seems that there is one way we could possibly strive for getting EITHER: a Twenty-Point Hand; OR, a Twenty-Point Crib, and it's not-at-all readily obvious what we should do if this crazy outcome were our only goal. Think about it, and we'll examine the path to such an absurdity a bit later. 🧁

It's a good thing we don't need those Twenty-Points, because the odds of getting such a ridiculous outcome are exceedingly remote. Instead, given the Relative Score and the fact that we are Ahead and Dealing, we should be thinking more probabilistically of what is more LIKELY to actually occur. In this realm, we could consider Toss (2 3), Toss (3 3), and Toss (9 9). 🍒

Ironically, if we accept that starting off with Eight Points as our Best Hand, and if we're also willing to settle for "come what may" in our Crib, we might actually 'stumble' onto an idea such as Keep (3 3 9 9) and Toss (2 9), and we'll cover this hybrid solution or "Corner Case" in more detail a bit later. 🍷

Let's Toss (2 3) today, and 'fish in both streams' as it were! This idea allows us to at least attempt to "strike a balance" between our prospective Hand and Crib, and meanwhile it stashes quite a 'jolt' of energy into our Crib, and while it doesn't leave us with a great Pegging Hand, we should have some "Safety in Numbers" with the PAIRS Royal in 9 Cards. 🦢

Some may be wondering: What are the odds of cutting the "Case" 9 Card? That's an easy question: the odds we shall obtain the fourth and final or "Case" 9 Card via the cut are precisely the same odds that we shall cut any other specific card that we were not dealt, which happens to be 1/46 equals 0.02174 or about 2%. 🎲

Almost astonishingly, if we Keep (2 9 9 9) and Toss (3 3), after getting a Case 9 Card Cut, we might find ourselves holding a Twelve-Point Hand, and a Twenty-Four Point Crib if Pone were to Toss (3 3). And that would 'add up' to a combined Thirty-Six Points, placing us at or beyond Hole 75 by completion of this deal! 🎢

(*) What, pray-tell, is the answer however to our earlier ridiculous quest of trying to get either a Twenty-Point Hand or a Twenty-Point Crib? The answer is: Keep (3 3 9 9) and Toss (2 9)! We would then need to get EITHER: a Trey Cut for Twenty Points in our Hand, OR: after a Deuce Cut, we would have to be on the receiving end of Toss (2 2) coming from Pone. 🎡

Back to our Game: After the Case 9 Card Cut, we now have those coveted Dozen Points in our Hand, with at least Two Points (and probably more) forthcoming in our Crib, which means that we'll navigate at least to Hole 53 (or perhaps beyond) by the completion of this deal. 🎪

Ravel Piano Concerto 🎹 in G Major (Adagio), Martha Argerich
https://youtu.be/jeuYd8nltBo

Friday 4:44 AM

Keeping the 999 together. Do I prefer 23 or 33?

Friday 4:48 AM

Hey its a four of a kind progressive hand we have in a club pool. I go with 2-3 in the crib. dec

Friday 5:37 AM

Friday 6:34 AM

I just can’t balk my own crib so severely to maintain 2 more points in my hand. Sending 2 points to the crib is fine with me.

Friday 7:03 AM

I have a closed mind on this ..my inflexible final answer is tossing the 2nd highest average dealer discard and holding a keep that gets cut help ( hand/crib) from 10/13 ranks. And when, as dealer a puzzle involves possibly discarding a pair, it is always worth a review of where all the pair discards are grouped by Ras. Alert ..he counsels 10s & Ks are to be avoided

https://www.cribbage.org/NewSite/tips/rasmussen6.asp

Friday 7:16 AM

All the comments so far are in favour of the 2-3 discard, mine included. Is there a similar consensus on what hand we'd award the silver medal? I reckon I'd choose 2-3-3-9 (9-9).

Friday 7:21 AM

Very interesting hand. Need to improve my position. 2-9 and 3-3 are not for me. Do I keep the better melders (2-3 pitch) or the better peggers (9-9 pitch)? I am a pegger, so it appears I am the maverick again. Interested to hear from Ras and HalscribCLX.

Friday 8:12 AM

Looks like a "no-brainer" today.....and I am overqualified for it!

Friday 8:26 AM

2-3 to the crib for sure, and keep the 3 clubs to go with the 9 club to potentially fake a flush if opportunity arises

Friday 8:33 AM

The sole 3-3-9-9 player so far this morning. I chose the sure 8 points and bonused (new word?). 12 in the hand just like the rest of the contributors 🤷🏼‍♂️
Happy Day to All
John

Friday 8:37 AM

2-3 to crib seems like best option. 9-2 too big a spread to keep 2 more points in hand and like possibilities with the 2-3 toss

Friday 9:20 AM

I wanted to keep 9933 but the sure 6 and 23 to my crib for at least 8 was too tempting

Friday 11:09 AM

At 38*-35 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Net
Optimal___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total____W6 %____W7 %
2-3-3-9____7.87+ 1.28 +4.87=14.03____26.6____38.9
3-9-9-9____7.00=(-0.63)+6.79=13.16____27.6____43.3

Optimal_______L6 %____L7 %
2-3-3-9________22.1____38.8
3-9-9-9________19.2____43.3

2-3-3-9 is better for expected averages by 0.87pt. but 3-9-9-9 is considerably better for Win %s and lower for Loss %s so I'll select a 2-3 to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.

Friday 11:18 AM

Looks like I'm the odd one out. But it worked in my favor!

Friday 11:27 AM

Third day in a row that I've talked myself out of my first thought. Just so many more cuts for this hand to give me a dozen, others to being it back to 8, plus the pair in my crib

Friday 11:36 AM

On Offense I would choose the 2-3-3-9(9-9), and three cards of high pegging value. But at -6 and Pone at +1 I think this is best.

Friday 12:52 PM

If there are 2 close decisions, I will rely upon the expected / combined value of hand and crib, rather than variations due an offensive or optimal pegging strategy, as clearly the better pegging hand for either would be to retain (2-3-3-9) while tossing the 9's. My gut will throw the 2nd best crib toss (2-3) and keep those 6 pts in hand, with still potential for a monster hand/crib kept intact.

Friday 2:59 PM

Looks like the book throw.
Provocative cut!

Friday 6:08 PM

At hole 38, my choice of strategy was offense. HalscribCLX has chosen optimal. The 2-3-3-9 does even better if choosing offense because of the greater hand potential and pegs for 2-3-3-9 as dealer are in excess of 3 points. Potential hand-size is nearly 1 point better than holding 3-9-9-9. Those advantages are too much for 2-3 to crib to overcome. Will play on the lead. That means would score 15-2 on a six, pair a nine, pair a trey, pair a deuce as if n/d has third deuce for count of six, dealer 9 will score 15-2.