Saturday 3:41 AM

I prefer A-8 rather than A-K in my crib. but I guess it's what Ras prefers here!

Saturday 4:02 AM

We are 'Ahead and Dealing' from 'no man's land' or the real estate equivalent that is respectively and precariously located about Ten Holes beyond the Second Street Par Hole 44, and is therefore Sixteen Holes 'shy' of our next "target" or Hole 70, which of course is the Third Street Par Hole. That is, we are currently an Average Pone Tally of Ten Points beyond our previous "target" or Par Hole 44, and thus we are precisely one Average Dealer Tally of Sixteen Points 'shy' of our next and critical "target" or Par Hole 70. Whew! Who Knew?! We're 'Stuck in the Middle' as it were. ⛳

If both players put up an Average Tally here, by completion of this deal, we're looking at emerging out the other side of this equation in "Backwards Cribbage Land" as being the Next Non Dealer (or Pone) at about (70-63*), and it would be a shame to only realize that we are in 'not-too-bad' shape, when we could (and should) have realized this sooner and used the opportunity to possibly make a more aggressive and thus Offensive Approach when we were 'Ahead and Dealing' at (54*-53)! The sooner we understand and embrace the situation we are actually in, the better we can negotiate our way forward. Clearly, I still haven't woken up yet. ☕

Let's try to realize our full potential and exercise the likely fact that, while it may not appear like it, we are probably in better control of this game than it feels, and so let's Toss (A 8) today. After the surprising Jack Cut, we'll carve out "Two for Him/Her/His/Heels" 👠 and then we'll promptly 'Yeet' our Back Peg on up and over to Hole 56, as we take control of our destiny in this fine RAS Puzzle. 🍷

Our Hand is now worth Seven Points, and our Crib, maybe not so much (let's not talk about it). I hope I didn't get too esoteric back there: the New Year often finds me a few tablets short of an actual refill, but I'll soon excavate my way through fields of snow in a Cavalcade of Subaru All-Wheel-Drive, and soon my larder and cupboards shall be once again replete. 🥃

Saturday 5:30 AM

Like the pegging aspects of this hand as well as the max cut possibility of 14 with a 3- we can easily lay off a picture lead with our magic 11 of 8-3 and save our 5 for the next series

Saturday 5:41 AM

A8 or AK? Hoping A8 finds some friends in the crib. I'll peg if I am allowed.

Saturday 5:47 AM

I am going this way. Only a 9 doesn’t help the hand and this is the strongest discard option for a solid crib.

Saturday 5:47 AM

Fourteen potential. I like to have a more possible pegging ad with the 3-8 in hand. dec

Saturday 6:13 AM

Little one, middle one for me.

Saturday 6:14 AM

JQT has given a perfect analysis of the situation at hand. The 8-ace toss may find a friend in the crib, however, if I was playing my uncle Joe ( aka my favourite pigeon ) I would toss the K -ace

Saturday 6:22 AM

Like keeping Lower cards for pegging and 3-8 for magic 11. K-A large spread for crib, but at least it’s suited.

Saturday 7:08 AM

Although A8 a stronger throw, like keeping the Magic 11 here. If I'm in a more offensive position, would then consider the A8.

Saturday 7:39 AM

No second thoughts on this one, because I always keep the 8 over the face since the Jazzman taught me to do so years ago.

Saturday 7:54 AM

More sixes and sevens amongst the 46 unknown cards than there are fours and fives, so I reckon A8 will perform better in the crib than will AK.

Saturday 8:17 AM

We are "somewhere" on the board stuck in between 2 critical par holes, only leading by 1, but ahead and dealing and thus seemingly in control of the game at this point, subject to quick change. It is an average, non-descript position, and we seem to have been dealt an average, underwhelming hand to boot. If I was a more aggressive-type player in these situations, I would almost consider throwing (5 K) and keeping a hand that gets help on almost any cut, with lots of "interesting" possibilities for the pegging. In fact, there are 3 choices to consider (A 8), (A K), (5 K), and on the whole, they all seem like pretty decent choices here. However, to match the score, let's throw the standard "book" throw of (A 8) and not play around - The "J" is a mixed bag as a cut, but those 2 extra points are significant here. After a 7-pt hand, and perhaps a poor crib, I will use cautious offense here as my strategy. Not too keen on giving up a triple for 2 pts, but I will 15-2 any X-card lead, and I don't mind going tit-for-tat (e.g., exchanging a run or two if we can get the better end of the stick.)

Saturday 8:24 AM

I do not really need to peg from this position, so I will throw the 8 rather than the King. This keep is probably better for defensive pegging as well. The 5-K might be Ras's choice here, but that leaves me with a Pone-type hand rather than a Dealer-type hand. With the Jack cut, I will take some cautious pegs to further improve my position and hold Pone back.

Saturday 8:45 AM

Pone is 17 holes short of the next target. I have a four card sixteen, a two card 11, and a 2 star toss in the Crib. Play the 8 on a K,Q,J lead and the 3 on a 10 lead. Hope to keep the A-3-4 for the end.

Saturday 10:34 AM

I’d have liked to keep the 8 in hand but didn’t want to throw a K into my crib.

Saturday 10:58 AM

If this was not a RAS puzzle then I'm tossing the A-8. Since it is a RAS puzzle, what am I supposed to learn? That keeping the A-3-4-8 has a way better pegging value, and putting the 5 and K in my crib will be best.

At least, I hope that is the lesson today. I did want to keep the 3-4-5 run....

Saturday 12:36 PM

At 54*-53 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total___W5 %____W6 %
A-3-4-8____4.93+(-1.89)+6.57=9.61____41.6____58.1
3-4-5-K____7.98+(-2.17)+3.73=9.54____42.5____60.2
3-4-5-8____8.15+(-2.20)+3.15=9.10____42.2____58.8
A-4-5-K____7.15+(-1.91)+3.79=9.03____40.8____58.7

Defense______L5 %____L6 %
A-3-4-8_______28.1____23.2
3-4-5-K_______26.2____21.2
3-4-5-8_______27.4____22.4
A-4-5-K_______26.3____22.4

A-3-4-8 is best for expected averages by a slim 0.07pt. over 3-4-5-K but 3-4-5-K is slightly best for Win %sand lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select A-8 to discard.

After the J cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

Saturday 4:57 PM

See no reason to play a defense strategy as n/d needs 16 points to reach 3rd street CPZ (69-73). Move down the board. Keep the cards with the superior offensive pegging value and 5-K to crib. Choosing defense, would have been with HalscribCLX and would have chosen such had n/d been at hole 57-62. Will play the 8 on nearly all leads, keeping A-3-4 intact.

Saturday 5:48 PM

This keeps a shot at a double in play and an K is tossed into the crib more often than an 8 so maybe pick up a couple there as well plus I may be able to peg a a few.

Saturday 8:57 PM

I was feeling poorly about my choice, after seeing y’all’s….then along came Jones. I mean, Ras.