January 19, 2025

*** This hand was suggested by James500
73*-84  ?
83%
83%
10%
10%
4%
4%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 274
Rosemarie44

Joined: March 2016 (2090 votes)

Sunday 3:24 AM
I did consider holding the Flush, but this run had such potential
JQT

Joined: October 2008 (4353 votes)

Sunday 3:33 AM
Trailing by Eleven Holes and Dealing just Three Holes beyond the Third Street Par Hole 70, we are compelled to take into account our Positional Deficit and retain the Double Run. πŸ₯§

Every Cut Card except the Four Aces helps our Hand, and a Dozen Cuts (4444, 55, 666, 777) give us Fourteen Points or more, which means we have a 12/46 equals 0.261 or about a 26% chance of making it to Hole 88 or farther by completion of this deal. 🚁

Another whopping Twenty-Four Cut Cards (3333, 8888, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK) give us at least a Dozen Points, so 36/46 equals 0.783 or nearly an 80% chance of making it to Hole 86 or farther by completion of this deal. That is such a high success rate for holding the Double Run, we cannot ignore it! πŸ†

Let's hold the Double Run and Toss (2 9) today. Sorry, but the FLUSH can only grab Second Place. πŸ₯£

After the 6 of Hearts Cut, we now have Sixteen Points in our Hand, with at least a few points in our Crib. 🍨

Flashback for January 18, 2025

28 points
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

Play here:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/01/17/upshot/flashback.html

As the Cold Season Takes Its Grip on North America
https://youtu.be/XKJRf98GU3o?list=OLAK5uy_nzL8fu1hYG-qUebDzz-GIW_jcKzbYxRx0

It Will Be Warm Again
https://youtu.be/GQQbjpomexo
Eolus619 says: THX …John.. George Winston ..his β€œDecember” is essential listening
JQT says: George died in 2023, and it dawned on me that I bought "Autumn" in 1980, and "December" in late 1982 the year my son was born. πŸ‚ ❄ ❄ ❄ β›„
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6676 votes)

Sunday 4:45 AM
WE need to max everything here. dec
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (6007 votes)

Sunday 5:55 AM
No fooling around with this double run
Djgoat

Joined: December 2023 (142 votes)

Sunday 6:17 AM
No time to get cute
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4187 votes)

Sunday 8:09 AM
I thought there would've been more votes cast for 5-5 than there has been.
guideontheside says: I did, too - I still stand behind my throw!
Assman

Joined: May 2024 (267 votes)

Sunday 8:22 AM
I thought about it over and over trying to justify toss (5 5) today but I couldn’t.
Eolus619 says: Hello Assman.food for thought to support you not tossing the 5s..Ras's Big Hand Rule..Tossing 5s can be done when the sacrifice is 4 points [or less] and the remaining keep can earn 12 points with the cut..many players forget ..or do not know ..the second part about cutting to 12.Keep learning & keep posting!!!
Inushtuk1 says: Interesting Bruce; but could this be one of those 5% exceptions to that rule? It might very well be if choosing Defense when seeing the pegs, and the cards. But I chose Optimal, and so will stick with the Double Run, and switch to Defense after getting an excellent cut.
Eolus619 says: Hi Mike...the 5% you speak to is troubling to me because I still do not know when & why it applies
Inushtuk1 says: I just try to make a note of it when ever Ras says, "This is an exception to the rule."
Assman says: Thank you for the advice, Bruce. So, the (5 5) toss is disqualified because we cannot get 12 or more with the remaining cards. Live and learn!
Eolus619 says: YES..in this case it is !!
domandcarol

Joined: August 2023 (26 votes)

Sunday 8:24 AM
Double run with 5s + potential to add points 9-2 had to go
SallyAnn3

Joined: March 2020 (1109 votes)

Sunday 8:42 AM
echoooooooooo....
Inushtuk1

Joined: July 2016 (1713 votes)

Sunday 9:15 AM
That flush would have to start with 8 points at least. Don't do it wasa. Defense to the lead after that wonderful cut. But it's perhaps better to take the (15-2) on any X-Card lead, rather than leave myself with 5-5-7.
wasa

Joined: November 2014 (3246 votes)

Sunday 9:58 AM
Sorry Inushtuk, but with the flush = 6 plus guaranteed 2 in the crib, the flush called my name. I always want a way to see if I can get a 5 in my crib. Briefly pondered tossing 5-5, but decided against it.
Inushtuk1 says: That's ok wasa. The (5-7) suited was definitely tempting; but using the Star Toss method, the flush is 6 + 1 = 7. The Double Run is 8 + 0 = 8. Now if I could have kept the flush, and put a (5-X) in my Crib; maybe that would have put me ovewr the edge.
RubyTuesday

Joined: January 2019 (1120 votes)

Sunday 11:12 AM
Pretty much ditto.
MarktheShark

Joined: January 2024 (336 votes)

Sunday 11:15 AM
In this position, I want to play defense and hold Pone back. 2-9 pitch is too dangerous for that option. Pitching the 5's seems better than keeping the flush.
ryman554

Joined: January 2025 (15 votes)

Sunday 12:53 PM
I tossed the 5s since there are a lot of cuts which get me close to parity with the double run with taking only two X in the crib for 10 there.

Even with the 6 cut, that's 16 in the hand with the 55567 and two more in the crib for 18.

Bur that 6 cut helps me, too 26679 is 10 in the hand, and 556 in the crib. That's 12 total, but I like my chances for a mondo crib..
Eolus619 says: Hi Ryman554..this puzzle makes it worthwhile for all of us on DCH to review Ras's two rules..Big & Small hands..and also his point sacrificing advice..this can be found in his video class..week 2 part 6 thru 8..if you have not taken all the class suggest you consider doing so..each week is actually a ten minute video on a particular cribbage subject https://vashoncribbage.weebly.com/strategy.html
guideontheside

Joined: July 2020 (554 votes)

Sunday 1:15 PM
Not only 5-5 in my crib, but gives me more flexibility in pegging, so my 5 can't get trapped.
Eolus619 says: hello guide....this puzzle makes it worthwhile for all of us on DCH to review Ras's two rules..Big & Small hands..and also his point sacrificing advice..this can be found in his video class..week 2 part 6 thru 8..if you have not taken all the class suggest you consider doing so..each week is actually a ten minute video on a particular cribbage subject https://vashoncribbage.weebly.com/strategy.html
Ras2829

Joined: November 2008 (5412 votes)

Sunday 1:27 PM
Choice of strategy matters not. The double-run has such superior numbers as to potential hand score, nothing else is in the running. For those contemplating 5-5 discard, Big Hand rule makes that easy. In hands of 8 or more points, dealer can give up four points in hand score to discard 5-5 to own crib as long as the remaining cards have a potential of 12 or more points. Does 2-6-7-9 have such potential? No reason for defense here after looking at the pegs and the six cards in hand with opponent 11 points ahead. Choose offense or optimal. Shift to defense once seeing the starter card knowing that have 16-point hand, dealer pegs, and a crib score to tally. Play off the lead. That means playing the 6 on any X-pointer and playing one of those fives on most every other lead. Don't pair to risk six. Would not take 15-2 on an 8. Would play 5C. The 6-7 is likely to score more later without giving up much.
jmudge

Joined: July 2020 (909 votes)

Sunday 2:29 PM
Arrrgh! I ignored the run today and risked cutting a face card for the crib.
Eolus619 says: hello judge...this puzzle makes it worthwhile for all of us on DCH to review Ras's two rules..Big & Small hands..and also his point sacrificing advice..this can be found in his video class..week 2 part 6 thru 8..if you have not taken all the class suggest you consider doing so..each week is actually a ten minute video on a particular cribbage subject https://vashoncribbage.weebly.com/strategy.html
MiketheExpert

Joined: April 2021 (1280 votes)

Sunday 4:56 PM
There is too much potential wrapped up into this double run to let go of it - I would like to do better for the crib, but neither the flush with toss (5 7), and especially the (5 5) throw can compensate for breaking up this double run, regardless of the crib throw. After the beautiful cut, we should relax a little, and concentrate on preventing pone's movement up the board.
MiketheExpert says: Don't engage on pone's lead...This means play off any mid-card lead (I'd play the 5 over any lead from 7 through 9). I'd play the 7 over a 6-card lead, and probably the 6 over a 4-card lead holding 2 fives. (In this case, the danger of him holding 2 4's and playing for 15-2 seems to be higher than that of him playing a 5 to score 5 points.)
MiketheExpert says: If too fearful to play the 6 over a 4-lead, then play the 7, and plan to drop a 5 if he fifteens it. This will open up to a run being scored, but we have a good chance of tripling or scoring 31 with our other 5, or responding with a run-of-5 of our own if he scores with a 3. (Not my first choice for trying to avoid pegs, but at least we better get the most out of it if our plan backfires.)