January 20, 2025

*** This hand was suggested by James500
86-95*  ?
78%
78%
11%
11%
10%
10%
Total votes: 243
Rosemarie44

Joined: March 2016 (2090 votes)

Monday 3:14 AM
I believe the Flush would be best to hold at this position. I did consider A-K to dealer but that left a hand with too many close cards in my hand.
cribbagepogo says: Is that a bad thing?
Rosemarie44 says: So what do you thinK? where is your comment.
Eolus619 says: Morning Rosemarie44..seems to me it may very well be about playing for a favorable cut ..so take the flush, A-6-7-8 and 6-7-8-9 …insert them into the “calculator “ run the cuts and you will see the outcome as to favorable cuts ..two minute drill to accomplish…and I am not sure where pegging potential is on the list..but at this score ..hand potential and balk potential would be ahead of that..just my $.02 http://www.bucktheodds.com/cribbage/score
Rosemarie44 says: Bruce. If I had originally thought it was best about playing for a favorable cut I would have picked the run 6789. Thank you.
Eolus619 says: Hi..playing for a favorable cut may not be the best path in some cases..the trick for me is to decide when and when not to do so..that is still a challenge !
Annabella says: Rosemarie, I too was concerned about a AK toss, and too many bunched cards with no escape….but I like your pick better than mine, with the flush option… I did not see it….ooops!
guideontheside says: Rosemarie, I thought about keeping an "out" card, but in the end, it was too tempting to go for the 16 cut. Plus, K-A isn't a bad throw to their crib.
JQT

Joined: October 2008 (4353 votes)

Monday 3:29 AM
The Relative Score, and namely our Nine-Point Deficit, concerns me the most here. I'm also very concerned about Crowd Size today. 🥶

Usually, I will retain a FLUSH if it is close to, or even up to One Point LESS, in our Hand, but since our Opponent is 'Ahead and Dealing' from nearly atop the Fourth Street Par Hole 96, I think it's best to hold the Four-Card Run and be ambitious here. As Martin Luther King Jr. said, "I have a dream." 😢

Let's Deport the Ace and Toss (A K) today, and strive to get one of those Dozen Cuts (666, 777, 888, 999) that will 'energize us' the most, and launch us forward by Sixteen Points, reaching Hole 102 or beyond. Dare to Dream! 🙄

After the Queen of Spades Cut, we still have Eight Points, so Cheer Up! Let's lead the 8 Card. If we can just peg Twenty-Seven Holes, we'll WIN by the completion of this deal. And, Don't Forget to Smile! 😊

Blaze Foley "Oval Room" (1984)
https://youtu.be/XuWmIpL2GLA
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (6007 votes)

Monday 5:38 AM
Al Miller used to preach to "not fall in love with the flush". This is the case in point for eschewing that behavior.

First appreciable snowfall of the season in Northern Massachusetts, about 6". I don't need a shovel as much as a push broom.
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6676 votes)

Monday 5:44 AM
K-A I figured has a little more success to have a few points compared to K-9 . So defense and see if we can peg two or three hopefully in a draw at worst with opponent. I see 110 as a goal for opponent try to stall them. Sixteen would be nice but a six point crib could be a negative thing for us. Ace lead stagger the pegging. dec
Assman

Joined: May 2024 (267 votes)

Monday 6:03 AM
I’m going for gold.
29crib

Joined: August 2023 (187 votes)

Monday 6:15 AM
9,K is good defensive discard. Retaining the A will help break up a run or steal a go point. Giving up the 9 as one point but keeping the A still retains the same hand point value and the A is a good pegging card.
SallyAnn3

Joined: March 2020 (1109 votes)

Monday 7:21 AM
I went for the double run or Raggedy Ann, and an out card to not get caught giving them a 4 card run. 9/K is an uglier toss than A/K.
Annabella says: Well said, and what I was thinking but couldn’t put it into a sentence. Still ‘ early’ for me, haha.
SallyAnn3 says: :) Several people on this site have taught me many little things along the way when we play live. It is a huge help and much appreciated, so I try to remember it when I can! Having an escape card on 4th street is a big one.
Jazzselke

Joined: March 2009 (2757 votes)

Monday 7:26 AM
Agree with Dec and Sally's analysis. Only difference might be to lead the 6 to break up the cluster.
MarktheShark says: I do not know what the best defensive lead is, but I do remember outpegging Pone 11-0 on a 6 lead when we both held this same hand during the game's first deal. 6-6-8-7-A-A/7-8.
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4187 votes)

Monday 7:47 AM
I'll lead the 8, keeping the Ace to escape with.
Eolus619

Joined: June 2020 (1597 votes)

Monday 7:47 AM
No flush ..JQT & Gougie00 make good comments about evaluating flush keeps ..Start with eight ..I tossed A-K..#14 on Ras’s best balk discard list averaging 4.35..The 9-K is # 2 ( 3.93) on his list and only one of two averaging under four ( 10-K the other. ) The real problem with any of the viable keeps is NO X cut helps..and as can be seen , the cribbage fairy is..to quote Gougie00.. off her meds.

https://www.dailycribbagehand.org/results.php
Eolus619 says: AND….. Yesterday 17% of the voters did not pick the double run. Fine by me. I would suggest that all DCH voters have an understanding of Ras’s Big & Small hand rules..since they apply to 95% of dealer hands…and his advice about sacrificing points when discarding as dealer. These subjects are addressed in his video class..week 2 ..6A-8..the videos are rarely longer than 10 minutes .. https://vashoncribbage.weebly.com/strategy.html
MarktheShark

Joined: January 2024 (336 votes)

Monday 7:58 AM
We are both in position, but we need to try to stop Dealer from going out in his three hands. None of the reasonable pitches provide any defensive pegging, so we must balk his crib. A-K to keep max points ... no. 7-K to keep some defense ... no. 9-K seems to be the best choice to me. Unhappy with the cut card. What do we lead if we are trying to peg defensively?
MarktheShark says: After the Q cut, I must hope Dealer cannot go out in three hands. I will lead the 7 and hope to peg a few to get back into position.
MiketheExpert says: I like the A best with the flush, probably the 7 best with this hand. But the 6 could work also. We need a big stroke of luck as it were to pull this one out after the cut, regardless.
domandcarol

Joined: August 2023 (26 votes)

Monday 8:14 AM
Looked at flush, but like the starting 8 pt 6789 more.
Annabella says: The flush is 8 points
Inushtuk1

Joined: July 2016 (1713 votes)

Monday 10:31 AM
Too many cuts for 16 to keep the flush, or A-6-7-8. Lead the 8, and look for the 5 Card Trap.
MiketheExpert

Joined: April 2021 (1280 votes)

Monday 10:37 AM
The run in this case seems like too dangerous a pegging keep to me, trailing by 9 holes with dealer in marginal position. If I can keep an 8-pt flush with a safer crib throw and pegging hand, let's account for this at this critical position. Even hitting a 16-pt hand on the cut might not be good enough, unless we can peg a significant amount as well. I am more comfortable this way, and I would even like the (9 K) throw though it only starts with 7 pts, if we were a few holes more advanced.
MiketheExpert says: For some reason I was thinking we were at hole 84. At 86, I think I'd change my mind and keep the 4-card run instead. 16 pts gets us to hole 104 before the pegging, and then 2-3 pts could be good....So I will change my vote here.
MiketheExpert says: Also, (7 K) may not be a safer throw than (A K). I imagine they are fairly close among the calculations with this hand.
MiketheExpert says: 86 + 16 = 102 only, doesn't it. With this cut, I am only stuck with 8 pts anyway. I guess this is a real conundrum now. Probably I am more happy if I kept the flush. Can't afford to trade points, but at the same time I need to score. A or 8 lead with the flush...haven't really made up my mind.
wasa

Joined: November 2014 (3246 votes)

Monday 10:52 AM
Pondered the A-K but the 7-K to my opponent makes the flush stand out today.
Captaincrunch

Joined: December 2022 (97 votes)

Monday 11:00 AM
Went with the AK to the crib. Saludos a todos de México!
Sgt Pegger

Joined: July 2017 (532 votes)

Monday 12:38 PM
Seemed like another "gimmie" to me. I will likely lead the 8 and hold the "trapping cards".
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5551 votes)

Monday 2:31 PM
At 86-95* playing a SAFE strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total___W2 %____W3 %
6-7-8-9____10.57+(-2.63)+(-4.40)=3.54____16.4____35.7
A-6-8-9____10.20+(-2.89)+(-4.04)=3.27____11.7____35.5
A-6-7-8_____9.48+(-2.96)+(-4.02)=2.50____12.3____32.2

Defense______L2 %____L3 %
6-7-8-9_______40.7____55.8
A-6-8-9_______38.1____57.1
A-6-7-8_______39.4____60.4

6-7-8-9 is best for expected averages by 0.27pt. and is considerably best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select A-K to discard.

After the Q cut I'll lead the 8 and play Optimally:

Lead___________Net Pegging Points
8___________________(-0.90)
7___________________(-0.93)
6___________________(-1.00)
9___________________(-1.36)