Saturday 3:13 AM

All of us know that Cribbage is a wonderful game, and I think one of the reasons I love it most is because of the way it rewards clear thinking and good planning, and punishes irrational thoughts and ideas. 🎭

We begin the Month of February, just a few days after a tragic aviation incident along the Potomac, and then a smaller crash in Philadelphia. I was not surprised to find that some people have mentioned that this reinforced their fear of flying, but in the United States, we have had only two significant commercial aviation accidents over the course of over several decades, and the last major one prior to the Potomac incident occurred just a few miles from where I sit. More on this when I wrap up below, so let's get back to the Cribbage Puzzle by RAS.

🎗 ✈ 🕯

We are the First Dealer, and we must choose between holding Four Points and either Toss (2 4) or Toss (2 9), or we could stash the 5 Card in our Crib with either Toss (5 Q) or Toss (5 K).

I believe Toss (2 4) is better than Toss (2 9), and I also believe that Toss (5 K) is better than Toss (5 Q), but that STILL doesn't answer the REAL question, which remains: Is Toss (2 4) better than Toss (5 K)?! And I believe that it certainly isn't any worse.

Let's Toss (2 4) today, and seek some potential "Pin Action" as we try to "energize" our Crib with a few Small Cards, and adopt a BALANCED approach to start this game. After the 4 Card Cut, we still have Four Points in our Hand, with at least Two Points, and hopefully more, in our Crib.

I don't think Toss (5 X) is wrong today, and it might be a matter of playing and/or player style. I like to put Small Cards into my Crib, but there's nothing-at-all wrong about stowing a 5 Card in there!

🎗 ✈ 🕯

According to the National Air Traffic Controllers Association, there are over 87,000 flights that criss-cross the United States every day! And it had been more than nine years since the crash that occurred near Buffalo in 2009 that involved a registered, scheduled passenger airline in the United States. That was Colgan Air Flight 3407, which crashed on approach to Buffalo on February 12, 2009, killing 50 people in total: 49 passengers and crew, and another person on the ground. On July 6, 2013, an Alaska Airlines flight crashed short of the runway and three people died. And on April 17, 2018, Southwest Airlines had an inflight incident that caused the death of one person. When the data includes non-commercial or non-scheduled passenger flights, the number of incidents of course is slightly higher, but the fact is that aviation in the U.S. is very safe.

Sixty-seven people died in the January 29, 2025 crash over the Potomac, so after nine years of almost complete safety, 50 people died in 2009, three died in 2013, and one died in 2018, and then after just two weeks shy of sixteen years again of nearly complete safety, 67 people died in 2025. This means that in approximately twenty-five years, 121 people have died as a result of commercial aviation accidents in the United States, which is 4.84 per year, or about 0.01326 per day. Sadly, a Learjet rescue ambulance also just crashed in Philadelphia on January 31, 2025, resulting in the death of six people, and this event is so recent, I'm uncertain whether it qualifies as commercial aviation or not.

Let us remember: Before the widespread availability of a vaccine, during the peak of Covid 19 in 2021, there were 3223 deaths per day in the United States for several months. Therefore, in order for airline disasters in the United States to be equivalent to the maximum danger of the most recent pandemic, an event like the tragic crash that just occurred on January 31, 2025 would have to occur about fifty times per day, and repeat itself fifty times each and every day for several months! Remember this the next time you climb aboard a commercial flight, an activity that is statistically safer than standing in your shower, or swimming in a shallow pool, or driving anywhere at any time! Think clearly and rationally, and try not to be driven by emotional reactions and irrational fears.

Others have stated that the UH-60 Blackhawk helicopter may have struck the Bombardier jet intentionally, but let's understand that while a jet that crashes with 67 souls on board is indeed a tragic occurrence, a Blackhawk helicopter, especially if even lightly armed and flying near a major airport, is capable of destroying much more than a single aircraft, and many others either airborne or on the tarmac each likely held up to five times as many people or more on board.

From the Aviation Safety Page: The number of deaths per passenger-mile on commercial airlines in the United States between 2000 and 2010 was about 0.2 deaths per 10 billion passenger-miles. For driving, the rate was 150 per 10 billion vehicle-miles for 2000: 750 times higher per mile than for flying in a commercial airplane. You should NOT be afraid to fly; but if you do have a fear of flying, your fear of getting anywhere near an automobile should be 750 times greater!

🎗 ✈ 🕯

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_safety

Saturday 3:17 AM

Many reasonable choices. 2-4, 2-9, 5-X? Since we should defend when we deal first, the 5 is going. Remember that Pone is more likely to pitch a K than a Q, so we should do the same. Liam shows a 0.1 difference between the same top 4 pitches, so it comes down to what Hal calculates for pegging and if playing defense or offense.

Saturday 3:35 AM

2-4 has some potential in the crib, as it works immediately with AAAA,222,3333,444 and 999, (16/46).

16 cards =
18 cards minus 2 cards =
(3*6 cards) - (2*1 card) =
(3*13%) - (2*2%) =
39% - 4% =
35% of the possible cuts.

Saturday 5:05 AM

Close call, tempted to hold 29 for the Magic 11, but ultimately opted for the 24 in the crib.

Saturday 5:07 AM

Another opportunity to learn. I kept the 45 together just in case a 3 or 6 was cut. Peg like a madman.

Saturday 5:55 AM

I am in the minority today. Only two cards do not improve the value of my hand - 7 and 8. Tens and face cards add to my crib.

Saturday 7:11 AM

Two face cards in the hand nudges the 2-4 to the crib. I like the idea 2-4-9 but ten potential in hand seals the deal. dec

Saturday 7:21 AM

It was between 2-4 and 5-K…I see the case for 2-4. Rosemarie spoke on my ( our) behalf today..which is fine by me ❗️

Saturday 8:00 AM

This hand was lame.

Saturday 8:31 AM

I have been choosing this hold lately with better results over the 4,5,Q,K or 5,9,Q,K. Seems like the crib performs better with a 5,K toss and I get better pegging points with the 2,4,9 combo in my hand.

Saturday 8:33 AM

All very fine judgement. Maybe mood of the moment is best. My hand is not too good. Let's help the crib.

Saturday 11:04 AM

I like it this way. Bigger Crib potential, and the Magic Eleven and Sweet Sixteen. But the other 3 viable options are very close. More important to choose one, and peg it properly. In this case that means playing the 2 on any X-Card lead, as it is a component of both the Two Card Eleven and the
Three Card Sweet Sixteen. I would have taken a chance on pairing the Q lead if the cut had not helped my hand, and the Crib looked like it might only contain 2 points.

Saturday 12:05 PM

5 Q to my crib on my lonely island. I should have gone for 5 K seeing as a K is more likely to be thrown in my crib, as noted above.

Saturday 2:08 PM

At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total___W9 %____W10 %
5-9-Q-K____6.00+(-2.07)+4.38=8.31____31.6____45.0
2-4-9-Q____3.83+(-2.04)+6.49=8.28____31.6____45.7
2-4-9-K____3.83+(-2.07)+6.48=8.24____31.5____45.6
4-5-Q-K____6.70+(-2.24)+3.64=8.10____31.1____44.5
2-5-Q-K____6.17+(-2.17)+3.65=7.65____29.6____43.5

Defense______L9 %____L10 %
5-9-Q-K_______26.4____28.5
2-4-9-Q_______25.5____27.6
2-4-9-K_______25.5____27.7
4-5-Q-K_______26.9____29.2
2-5-Q-K_______26.1____29.7

5-9-Q-K is best for expected averages by a slender 0.03pt. over 2-4-9-Q. However, 2-4-9Q is slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s so even though it's the very start of the game I'll select the 5-K to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

Saturday 3:13 PM

Choosing defense as dealer of opening hand. Will play off the lead although would score 15-2 on leads of 5/6. Why not? Don't pair if risking six. And just boosted the 5-K discard choice to 21%. Now, we're talkin'!

Saturday 3:58 PM

woot

Saturday 8:12 PM

I would like to keep 4 in hand as well as the chance for an open-ended run. I don't think the difference between (2 4) and (2 9) in crib warrants the decrease of hand potential by throwing the former - the (5 X) tosses also weaken the hand too much further. The 4 gives some modest help in hand and crib. Will play defense to the lead seeing as we will reach a minimum of hole 9 on this hand.