Sunday 3:45 AM

No word on Punxsutawney Phil up at Gobbler's Knob, the poor, anesthetized groundhog they poke and prod every year on this day at about sunrise (if you will) in some bizarre ritual. 🦔 🌄

We are Pone, leading by a paltry Four Holes, and we are Sixteen Points away from the Second Street Par Hole 44. But the Dealer is behind us, so we could probably risk Toss (8 8) this early in the game. And yet, if that were to backfire, then we'd likely be playing Catch-up Cribbage for the remainder of the game. 🏃🏻‍♂️ 🚶🏻‍♂️

Let's 'hedge' and Toss (8 J) today, because: "What are the odds that we'll cut an Ace or a 9 Card?" (It's just over 17%, as it turns out.) 🎲 🎲

After the Ace of Spades Cut, we still have just those teeth-gnashing Two Points, and those who threw those Crazy Eights have Nine Points. Life just isn't fair, it seems; but it's a good thing we learned this before we reached adulthood. Let's lead a 4 Card from our Provocative Pear. 🤬 🍐

Sunday 4:06 AM

I kept looking at this hand and there are many cuts that improve holding 445J. On the negative side 88 according to Ras is worth 7.91 points in the n/d's crib. aathough Colvert and Liam only show a different of about 2 points between 88 and 8J in n/d's crib, I follow Ras's statistics. Does holding this hand warrant tossing these dangerous cards?

Sunday 4:27 AM

No need for all out offense here-sacrifice the 2 points for the safer toss and still keep the open ended 445

Sunday 4:29 AM

Some places I would do the eights not here. Its unfortunate we do not eight here but the eights on the other side could look pretty bad now. dec

Sunday 5:19 AM

I kept the 445 together hoping for a 3 or 6. I tossed 8J to the dealer to prevent an explosion in the crib. Only an A or 9 doesnt help and the joke is on me today.

-1 in Northern Massachusetts. Brr-r.

Sunday 5:21 AM

I considered the 4,4,5,8 but ultimately went with this instead. I thought ....eh, why not keep a little of everything? 4 will play the Groundhog.

Sunday 6:10 AM

Discards of 4-8 and 8-J are both on Ras’s list of lowest n/der discards ..I am on discard defense here …With hold 4-4-5-8 I keep the possible double run intact and only an A & 9 are loser cuts …right on cue the Cribbage Fairy abandons me.

https://www.cribbage.org/NewSite/tips/rasmussen7.asp

Sunday 6:18 AM

Tough score, at the least want a chance for a good hand

Sunday 8:01 AM

If this is the third deal, we are positionally behind. But pitching the dangerous 8's to Dealer's crib seems foolish for the small advantage our keep might give us.

Sunday 12:13 PM

I like the hedge here. What’re the odds?

Sunday 1:33 PM

J8 to delay, hopefully some better cards next time.

Sunday 2:11 PM

8-J safely - much preferred.

Sunday 2:26 PM

At 28-24* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W7 %____W8 %
4-4-5-8____5.48+1.80+(-4.36)=2.92____24.4____28.6
4-4-5-J____7.54+1.57+(-6.20)=2.91____29.5____29.2

Offense______L7 %____L8 %
4-4-5-8_______30.7____47.1
4-4-5-J_______36.3____48.2

4-4-5-8 is better for expected averages by the narrowest 0.01pt. over 4-4-5-J. However, 4-4-5-J is considerably better while 4-4-5-8 is very much lower for Loss %s. As I'm recommending an Offense strategy for the pegging I'll select an 8-J to discard.

After the A cut I'll lead the 8 and play Offense:

Lead___________Our Pegging Points
8____________________2.18
4____________________1.79
5____________________1.38

Sunday 2:52 PM

Risking it. Keeping 4 points with possible more with cut and hope it all doesn’t blow up n the crib!

Sunday 2:58 PM

Leading the 8d. Hoping to fake the flush with the 4d next hand. Might get a triple or a run.

Sunday 3:34 PM

Late to the game, but didn't want to toss 8-8 just to keep 4 points. I wanted the 4-4-5 combo to remain together...

Sunday 3:49 PM

Looking at the pegs, looking at the six cards in front of me need wanting to gain a positional advantage suggests holding 4[4-5-J. With that perfect cut of a 6 to match the suit of the Jack, would have 15 points. Oh, there are so many cards which only give n/d 2-4 points (A/5/8/9/10, J/Q/K). Still want to move down the board as much a possible after seeing that lousy starter card. Dealer has huge advantage; so will lead the 8 and take nay pegs offered. Have absolutely nothing to defend here. Slowing the dealer was not a consideration for me. HalscribCLX analysis is right on!