February 4, 2025
31% 31% | |||||
28% 28% | |||||
11% 11% | |||||
8% 8% | |||||
7% 7% | |||||
2% 2% | |||||
2% 2% | |||||
2% 2% | |||||
1% 1% | |||||
1% 1% | |||||
0% 0% | |||||
Total votes: 307 |
ccjohnson | Pone leads a 4 |
Joined: January 2019 (1138 votes) Tuesday 3:20 AM
I thought that I’m unlikely to be counting my crib, so kept four very different cards. I’ll be interested to see what those of you who know what you’re doing choose 🙂 |
Joined: February 2009 (1593 votes) Tuesday 4:18 AM
One of everything -the K as my out card not likely to matched-if my 2 or 8 don’t peg I’m in trouble |
Joined: February 2009 (1593 votes) Tuesday 4:19 AM
On the 4 lead I’m playing the K and hoping they don’t come back with an A for 2 |
Joined: April 2008 (6711 votes) Tuesday 5:03 AM
Two for a go and eight for last card that is my plan even with a four lead. A pairing is acceptable of. course. dec |
Joined: October 2008 (4376 votes) Tuesday 5:16 AM
We wake up to discover a lovely Cribbage Endgame Puzzle today by ccjohnson, as we find ourselves Ahead and Dealing in the awkward position in which we need to peg Two Holes in order to WIN, while Pone (who enjoys First Hand Show; that is, if it ever occurs) needs only Four Points to Beat us to the Punch Bowl. 🤡
Incidentally, exactly two hundred thirty-six years ago on this date, on the Fourth of February in 1789, George Washington was elected as the First President of the United States. It was on the Tenth of February in 1609 when Sir John Suckling himself was born: Cambridge educated, a British soldier and cavalier English poet, a scoundrel and a thief, and a gambler who was renowned for his careless gaiety and wit, the dude who was ostensibly the inventor of "This Game of Ours" that we call Cribbage. 📘 As it's believed that Sir John took his own life at age thirty-three, Cribbage is therefore thought to have been invented about the year 1629, thus making the game now 396 years old, and Cribbage was concocted as an adaptation of the game "Noddy." 🍸 Since February is the month of Presidents, it's interesting to calculate that the "half-life" of Cribbage is therefore around 198 years ago, which would place that date at about the year 1827, which is when John Quincy Adams was President of the United States! It's unknown whether John Quincy fancied Cribbage or not. Adams died in the Capitol building on February 23, 1848, after suffering a stroke in the House the day before. His last words were, "This is the last of earth. I am content." It sounds like me when I have a Zero-Point Crib. Let's get back to the puzzle. 🥴 Because we dealt ourselves One Jack, three remain unaccounted for, which means that unless they're on the floor somewhere, we have a 3/46 equals 0.065 or 6.5% chance of cutting our way to VICTORY. Therefore, this Jack Cut WILL NOT HAPPEN that other 93.5% of the time, and in this case, we'll want to peg those Two Holes any which way we can! 🌄 The fact that merely cutting a Jack means we instantly WIN also should mean that we shall face an Opponent who gets dealt a Jack a 'skosh' more often than a Pone who is not dealt a Jack. Whether we hold a T-J-Q Run or a J-Q-K Run or the Four-Card Run T-J-Q-K or whether we choose to NOT hold any Run at all, I think we should be ever-so-slightly biased toward retaining our Jack, since it does seem that those 93.5% of the cases in which we don't get a Jack Cut we may find ourselves able to PAIR a Jack held by Pone. Of course, this could backfire if Pone were to "turn the tables" and hold a Jack long enough to PAIR our own Jack! I'm very curious to know whether such "Hold-the-Jack" BIAS actually has any merit. 🤹🏻♂️ Since we have no PAIRS, it's no problem holding a VARIETY of card ranks from this arrangement, and the main debate here thus would seem to be focused around whether to retain any version of the aforementioned Runs or not, and I am inclined not to worry about having enough points, should Pone fall short. Other than this seemingly don't-care concern of whether to hold any points, I'm not really sure what's left for debate, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't give it all the analysis we can muster. Let's dive into the deep end! 🤿 I have to admit that in over fifty years of playing Cribbage, I have seen one or two similar endgames that actually stretched out to require yet another deal! That would take an extraordinary combination of really poor luck, as Pone would have to fail to move Four Holes, and even more surprising and rare, after pegging the Obligatory One Hole Minimum that a Dealer shall ALWAYS obtain, we would then have to score both a Hand of ZERO POINTS and a Crib of ZERO POINTS! With that bad omen in mind, I'm tempted toward something like Keep (2 8 J K) here, just to try to challenge or tempt fate! But this cannot be correct. 👓 The problem with this motley bunch of Nothing Burger is that we have just one Small Card, and not only could it become "trapped" and scored upon, I am worried that if Pone says "go," we may find ourselves at Hole 120 with one remaining card instead of two, and that could significantly lessen our chances in a final volley of pegging. The ability to score immediately and WIN if Pone leads a Deuce might seem to out-weigh that concern, but pegging Two Holes as the Dealer is a Special Case. And that's because as the Dealer, it's often fairly simple to 'snag' Two Points while pegging with a "One-Two Punch" of obtaining a "go" and then Last Card over the course of two volleys of pegging! 🥊 Let's Toss (2 T) today, and get on with the game. After the 5 Card Cut, my best guess is that if it wasn't already the case before the cut, everyone now should have sufficient points to "cover" the distance. With Keep (8 J Q K), we WIN if Pone leads any of the following Nineteen Cards (555, 7777, 888, JJJ, QQQ, KKK), which is 19/45 equals 0.422 or about 42% of the remaining deck. But since a 5 Card Lead would not be prudent, there is more likely just a 35% of winning with our First Card Played. Can we "boost" our chances in any way? 🍃 The composer of the puzzle asks what we would do if Pone leads a 4 Card: With Pone at Hole 117, we do have just a little bit of "wiggle room," such that we can give up a single (15-2) or a single (31-2), as long as that's ALL we give up! Therefore, rather than try to "dodge" Pone's perhaps blatant attempt at a (15-2) with an A-4 duo, I would rather try to decide what card I want to get rid of FIRST, and in this case, it's probably the Jack. See a few of the playouts below for more of an extended explanation and understanding. 🌱 After trying Toss (Q K), a few playouts went: (119*-117) (5 6 T K) (7 9) vs (2 8 T J) (Q K) 5s, Feb 4, 2025 by ccjohnson K (10) T (20) T (30-3), 2 (2) 5 (7) J (17) 6 (23) 8 (31=2), (121-120). It's a bit of good fortune to grab (31=2) with the last card played! (119*-117) (A 4 T K) (6 8) vs (2 8 T J) (Q K) 5s, Feb 4, 2025 by ccjohnson 4 (4) J (14) A (15-2) T (25) "go" 2 (27=1), T (10) 8 (18) K (28-1), (120-121). This is an example of how the Lone Deuce can really "bite" us when we need to peg Two Points. Had we decided to Keep (8 J Q K) and Toss (2 T), it's likely we would get those Two Points we need, and even if Pone scored a PAIR, we would likely get Last Card and end up at (121-120) as follows: (119*-117) (A 4 T K) (6 8) vs (8 J Q K) (2 T) 5s, Feb 4, 2025 by ccjohnson 4 (4) J (14) A (15-2) 8 (23=1), T (10) Q (20) K (30-1), K (10=1), (121-120). For this reason, I switched my thinking AWAY from holding the Lone Deuce and then decided to Toss (2 T). ☕ JQT says: How I Converged Upon a Discard Decision: Each "X" Card of course 'covers' its own rank if it is a Lead Card by Pone, but since these all have a pip value of Ten, they all also 'cover' a 5 Card Lead, which is not only exceedingly unlikely to occur, but if it does occur, then each additional "X" Card held is somewhat duplicate coverage. Thus, it's easy to see how we can rid ourselves of any single "X" Card without too much concern. The Deuce, while very HIGH BIAS to be used as a Lead Card by Pone and thus desirable to hold, only 'covers' the other three extant Deuces. Therefore, its desirability and HIGH BIAS for retention and first use by Pone is almost entirely negated by its poor coverage! Our best single card for maximum coverage is actually our 8 Card, which 'covers' Seven Lead Cards (7777, 888). If Pone does want to lead a Small Card, there are a known Fifteen Choices (AAAA, 222, 3333, 4444), so even though it's a HIGH BIAS Card to hold and lead, the chance of any Small Card Lead by Pone specifically being a Deuce is 3/15 equals 0.200 or just 20%. For complex pegging reasons that I specified in my post, I think the Lone Small Card Deuce is perhaps more of a LIABILITY than it is an ASSET. Pegging Two Holes by the Dealer is a Special Case, as we can frequently obtain One Point for a "go" during the first volley of pegging, and One Point (more) for Last Card during a subsequent volley. We can often do this SIMPLY BY HOLDING FOUR HIGH(ER) RANKING CARDS! Therefore, I can quickly and logically develop and conclude my discarding scheme as Toss (2 X) today. 📍 Eolus619 says: John…thx for the history lessons and your cribbage thoughts ..Schell’s table concerning the frequency of what cards are held by Pone or dealer may not be as valuable in a last hand end of game scenario but Pone holding a J is clearly the most likely card after a five..so I am pondering your decision to do so because of the high % chance it will be paired ..but I certainly respect your opinion on this..AND Pone’s dealt cards may prevent this ..BUT it is hard to imagine a Pone lead that could be immediately turned into 15/2 by dealer
http://www.cribbageforum.com/CardFrequency.htm JQT says: Statistical data such as card frequencies give us the bird's-eye view in my opinion, and this is akin to studying the average weather and temperature for a city you might visit next summer. Close endgames such as this instead require a "worm's-eye view," which is very up-close and highly variable, and it might yield something like, "Even though it's summer, you'll need a warm coat today!" Any card may be PAIRED (unless we have all four of them). Only 16 of 52 cards (31%) can prevent the Dealer from being able to score (15=2) on the Lead Card, and we were dealt one of these, so after the 5 Card Cut, it's actually now 15/45 or 33% if we ignore bias (the bias may make it higher). But even card bias often gets 'chucked out' in very close endgames! In typical defensive positions, how often does Pone actually lead a Small Card? It would be good to find out! Of course, Pone cannot lead cards that Pone does not have! Pone could quite easily be dealt an arrangement that has no Small Cards, and very often, Pone may be forced to make a very difficult decision, and if at Hole 117, Pone may have to discard the only Small Card(s), such as with (A 3 T T K K) or (2 2 9 T J Q). Pone needs to 'cover' those Four Holes that are needed to WIN, so tough decisions will often occur. Leading a Small Card will often be the best way to prevent the Dealer from scoring with the first reply, but there are also many instances in which it is better to risk a slightly more dangerous Lead Card in order to retain those remaining cards that are most defensive later. Imagine a score of (117-119*) and Pone decides to Keep (2 6 6 6) and Toss (5 5). Leading the Deuce is a safer percentage play, but leading a 6 Card is a far better plan overall, as it leaves us with a variety. Not only will a close endgame score drastically skew the card frequencies, it's a common practice for all competent Cribbage programs to NOT EVEN USE THE FINAL DEAL in any of its statistical gathering of data. For example, as Dealer needing just Two Points today, we might Toss (8 8) from (A 3 6 7 8 8), so it's easy to see why Discard Tables and all Card Frequency Data are completely ignored on what is determined to likely be the last deal of every game. It would be interesting to search through an archive of many millions of games played by strong players and examine the Lead Card Frequency for Pone under "normal" circumstances, and also when a Dealer is at Hole 119, or maybe "loosen" it a bit and examine the Lead Card Frequency when the score is within the bounds of say Pone between Hole 115 and 119 vs a Dealer between Hole 117* and 119*. |
Joined: July 2017 (555 votes) Tuesday 5:28 AM
We need just 2 points, and the smaller cards make us maneuverable before the pone gets 4. |
Joined: March 2008 (6030 votes) Tuesday 7:08 AM
Keeping the 2-8 for pegging. It really doesnt matter what face cards we toss, but if I am the pone, I am holding a King to escape with. Obviously hit anything that give us points. |
Joined: December 2023 (159 votes) Tuesday 7:11 AM
Just looking to peg out |
Joined: November 2014 (3268 votes) Tuesday 7:16 AM
4 lowest cards as per RAS's previous advice. My memory says that the J has more pegging value than Q or K. |
Joined: May 2024 (293 votes) Tuesday 7:43 AM
Too tough for me. I wanted to keep the "best" peggers--the 2 and then the 8. After that it was just a random toss of two of the X cards. Fun puzzle. Assman says: I’d play the 8 on a 4 to mix it up. |
Joined: January 2024 (358 votes) Tuesday 9:36 AM
Although I would like to pitch the 2 to be fairly certain I could get two Go's, I need to keep a spread for pegging. |
Joined: August 2009 (2280 votes) Tuesday 12:10 PM
Dangerous to keep the 2? So I am with JQT. Throw 2 - 10 JQT says: There is a significant difference between trying to peg the MOST POINTS and trying to peg TWO POINTS. We have lots of room ⛳ on this (8 J Q K) nearly uninhabited island, and its Close Cousin (8 T J Q) offers even more solitude! Also, the "X" Card Archipelago, or (T J Q K), is an interesting specimen and Holiday Getaway, as it currently holds onto Second Place, although none of the 28% who have voted for it thus far wish to discuss their thoughts. 🤐 |
Joined: November 2008 (5438 votes) Tuesday 3:53 PM
Although two pegs are not many for dealer to score, it would seem that four different cards would be the likely candidates. Think dealer can get those two pegs with these four cards. Grab any two any old time. Two "goes" would work as well. Dealer could also hold 8-J-Q-K and likely score the two goes. Think those choices are about equal. Yo JQT says: It's such a common and successful pegging tactic to retain a variety of "different" cards, and this puzzle has a challenging Relative Score and an inherent variety that requires a unique approach. We have dealt ourselves Six Unique Cards, although four of them have the same pip value. The four "X" Cards all have a Count or 'pip' value of Ten, but aside from this, they are also unique. Since we have no PAIRS, any four cards we hold shall be unique and different! If we examine all six cards after the 5 Card Cut: the Deuce can score on Three Lead Cards (222); the 8 Card can score on Seven Lead Cards (7777, 888); the Ten "T" Card can score on Six Lead Cards (555, TTT); the Jack can score on Six Lead Cards (555, JJJ); the Queen can score on Six Lead Cards (555, QQQ); and the King can score on Six Lead Cards (555, KKK). Therefore, as long as we include the 8 Card and any two "X" Cards in our Hand, we can score on Nineteen Lead Cards. We are left to decide whether the Deuce is more of a liability or an asset. This makes it a great puzzle! |
Joined: April 2021 (1299 votes) Tuesday 7:36 PM
This may fully depend on who I'm playing as to which 2 face cards I keep. This is how I'd keep it live against my "faithful" opponents, as I feel if they were forced to lead a face, they would less likely lead the J or Q. But sometimes I may decide to keep the (10 Q) or (J Q) combo as well. In this way, I'll take the small risk that in case pone fails to peg and count out, that I will be left with a 0-0 hand and crib. Suffice it to say I'm not too worried, and I am intent on pegging my 2 points. MiketheExpert says: I think there are both benefits and disadvantages as well to deciding to keep the low card, but I feel the benefits slightly outweigh the danger. It is not quite as likely (although chances are still good) that we can score 2 with keeping the highest cards, yet the danger of pone pegging on us is also higher. Considering pone is only 4 pts away and counts his hand first, I'm willing to take this extra risk. |
Joined: October 2008 (4376 votes) Wednesday 12:23 AM
Another Interesting Endgame Playout: "Check your gun at the door!" 😧
(119*-117) (5 7 T J) (9 K) vs (8 J Q K) (2 T) 5s, Feb 4, 2025 by ccjohnson T (10) K (20) J (30-1), J (10) 5 (15-2) Q (25=1), 7 (7) 8 (15=3), (121-120). We don't normally think of an 8 Card as a key pegging weapon, but in the Special Case in which a Dealer needs to peg just Two Holes, a Middle Card is like a "sniper" or bolt-action 'AWP' that can 'pick off' up to seven Lead Cards in a single shot! By using the three adjacent "X" Cards in a Hand such as (8 J Q K), we can ensure that we get at least two separate volleys of pegging, so we'll sometimes get Pone to lead more than once, and this can oftentimes translate into two separate 15.5% attempts at winning the game in one fell swoop! 🥋 If that doesn't sound attractive for us as the Dealer, think of it as having odds that are nearly equal to that of prevailing if we load one bullet into a six-cylinder revolver, and beckon Pone by insisting, "No, you go first!" in a friendly 'game' of Russian Roulette. Oh, and we also say, "And you get to have at it -- twice!" (And don't tell Pone it's a Snub-Nose .38, as this takes some of the fun out of it.) 💥 Note: When a Dealer holds a Lone Middle Card, there will normally be Seven Lead Cards that can be scored upon if Pone leads one of them. For example, in a Hand such as (8 J Q K), we can score Two Points if Pone leads any of the Seven Cards (7777, 888) that allow us to score either (15=2) or a PAIR. This assumes that as the Dealer, we did not discard any of those Seven Cards, and that the Cut Card is also not one of those Seven Cards. 🥧 After we see the Cut Card, there are forty-five cards that remain unaccounted for in Cribbage. Thus, we now have 7/45 equals 0.155 or about a 15.5% chance of scoring with our 8 Card. A typical revolver has a cylinder that holds six bullets, and if only one bullet is loaded into the gun and the chamber is spun, in this adventure known as "Russian Roulette," there will now be a 1/6 equals 0.166 or nearly a 16.7% chance that pulling the trigger will make a loud noise! 🔊 Most Snub-Nose .38 caliber pistols, however, such as the popular Smith & Wesson variant, holds only five rounds, therefore this boosts the odds of our Opponent or Pone "going out with a BANG" up to 20%! In Cribbage, we learn that Little Details Matter! 🔫 |