Tuesday 3:20 AM

I thought that I’m unlikely to be counting my crib, so kept four very different cards. I’ll be interested to see what those of you who know what you’re doing choose 🙂

Tuesday 4:18 AM

One of everything -the K as my out card not likely to matched-if my 2 or 8 don’t peg I’m in trouble

Tuesday 4:19 AM

On the 4 lead I’m playing the K and hoping they don’t come back with an A for 2

Tuesday 5:03 AM

Two for a go and eight for last card that is my plan even with a four lead. A pairing is acceptable of. course. dec

Tuesday 5:16 AM

We wake up to discover a lovely Cribbage Endgame Puzzle today by ccjohnson, as we find ourselves Ahead and Dealing in the awkward position in which we need to peg Two Holes in order to WIN, while Pone (who enjoys First Hand Show; that is, if it ever occurs) needs only Four Points to Beat us to the Punch Bowl. 🤡

Incidentally, exactly two hundred thirty-six years ago on this date, on the Fourth of February in 1789, George Washington was elected as the First President of the United States. It was on the Tenth of February in 1609 when Sir John Suckling himself was born: Cambridge educated, a British soldier and cavalier English poet, a scoundrel and a thief, and a gambler who was renowned for his careless gaiety and wit, the dude who was ostensibly the inventor of "This Game of Ours" that we call Cribbage. 📘

As it's believed that Sir John took his own life at age thirty-three, Cribbage is therefore thought to have been invented about the year 1629, thus making the game now 396 years old, and Cribbage was concocted as an adaptation of the game "Noddy." 🍸

Since February is the month of Presidents, it's interesting to calculate that the "half-life" of Cribbage is therefore around 198 years ago, which would place that date at about the year 1827, which is when John Quincy Adams was President of the United States! It's unknown whether John Quincy fancied Cribbage or not. Adams died in the Capitol building on February 23, 1848, after suffering a stroke in the House the day before. His last words were, "This is the last of earth. I am content." It sounds like me when I have a Zero-Point Crib. Let's get back to the puzzle. 🥴

Because we dealt ourselves One Jack, three remain unaccounted for, which means that unless they're on the floor somewhere, we have a 3/46 equals 0.065 or 6.5% chance of cutting our way to VICTORY. Therefore, this Jack Cut WILL NOT HAPPEN that other 93.5% of the time, and in this case, we'll want to peg those Two Holes any which way we can! 🌄

The fact that merely cutting a Jack means we instantly WIN also should mean that we shall face an Opponent who gets dealt a Jack a 'skosh' more often than a Pone who is not dealt a Jack. Whether we hold a T-J-Q Run or a J-Q-K Run or the Four-Card Run T-J-Q-K or whether we choose to NOT hold any Run at all, I think we should be ever-so-slightly biased toward retaining our Jack, since it does seem that those 93.5% of the cases in which we don't get a Jack Cut we may find ourselves able to PAIR a Jack held by Pone. Of course, this could backfire if Pone were to "turn the tables" and hold a Jack long enough to PAIR our own Jack! I'm very curious to know whether such "Hold-the-Jack" BIAS actually has any merit. 🤹🏻‍♂️

Since we have no PAIRS, it's no problem holding a VARIETY of card ranks from this arrangement, and the main debate here thus would seem to be focused around whether to retain any version of the aforementioned Runs or not, and I am inclined not to worry about having enough points, should Pone fall short. Other than this seemingly don't-care concern of whether to hold any points, I'm not really sure what's left for debate, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't give it all the analysis we can muster. Let's dive into the deep end! 🤿

I have to admit that in over fifty years of playing Cribbage, I have seen one or two similar endgames that actually stretched out to require yet another deal! That would take an extraordinary combination of really poor luck, as Pone would have to fail to move Four Holes, and even more surprising and rare, after pegging the Obligatory One Hole Minimum that a Dealer shall ALWAYS obtain, we would then have to score both a Hand of ZERO POINTS and a Crib of ZERO POINTS! With that bad omen in mind, I'm tempted toward something like Keep (2 8 J K) here, just to try to challenge or tempt fate! But this cannot be correct. 👓

The problem with this motley bunch of Nothing Burger is that we have just one Small Card, and not only could it become "trapped" and scored upon, I am worried that if Pone says "go," we may find ourselves at Hole 120 with one remaining card instead of two, and that could significantly lessen our chances in a final volley of pegging. The ability to score immediately and WIN if Pone leads a Deuce might seem to out-weigh that concern, but pegging Two Holes as the Dealer is a Special Case. And that's because as the Dealer, it's often fairly simple to 'snag' Two Points while pegging with a "One-Two Punch" of obtaining a "go" and then Last Card over the course of two volleys of pegging! 🥊

Let's Toss (2 T) today, and get on with the game. After the 5 Card Cut, my best guess is that if it wasn't already the case before the cut, everyone now should have sufficient points to "cover" the distance. With Keep (8 J Q K), we WIN if Pone leads any of the following Nineteen Cards (555, 7777, 888, JJJ, QQQ, KKK), which is 19/45 equals 0.422 or about 42% of the remaining deck. But since a 5 Card Lead would not be prudent, there is more likely just a 35% of winning with our First Card Played. Can we "boost" our chances in any way? 🍃

The composer of the puzzle asks what we would do if Pone leads a 4 Card: With Pone at Hole 117, we do have just a little bit of "wiggle room," such that we can give up a single (15-2) or a single (31-2), as long as that's ALL we give up! Therefore, rather than try to "dodge" Pone's perhaps blatant attempt at a (15-2) with an A-4 duo, I would rather try to decide what card I want to get rid of FIRST, and in this case, it's probably the Jack. See a few of the playouts below for more of an extended explanation and understanding. 🌱

After trying Toss (Q K), a few playouts went:

(119*-117) (5 6 T K) (7 9) vs (2 8 T J) (Q K) 5s, Feb 4, 2025 by ccjohnson
K (10) T (20) T (30-3), 2 (2) 5 (7) J (17) 6 (23) 8 (31=2), (121-120).

It's a bit of good fortune to grab (31=2) with the last card played!

(119*-117) (A 4 T K) (6 8) vs (2 8 T J) (Q K) 5s, Feb 4, 2025 by ccjohnson
4 (4) J (14) A (15-2) T (25) "go" 2 (27=1), T (10) 8 (18) K (28-1), (120-121).

This is an example of how the Lone Deuce can really "bite" us when we need to peg Two Points. Had we decided to Keep (8 J Q K) and Toss (2 T), it's likely we would get those Two Points we need, and even if Pone scored a PAIR, we would likely get Last Card and end up at (121-120) as follows:

(119*-117) (A 4 T K) (6 8) vs (8 J Q K) (2 T) 5s, Feb 4, 2025 by ccjohnson
4 (4) J (14) A (15-2) 8 (23=1), T (10) Q (20) K (30-1), K (10=1), (121-120).

For this reason, I switched my thinking AWAY from holding the Lone Deuce and then decided to Toss (2 T). ☕

Tuesday 5:28 AM

We need just 2 points, and the smaller cards make us maneuverable before the pone gets 4.

Tuesday 7:08 AM

Keeping the 2-8 for pegging. It really doesnt matter what face cards we toss, but if I am the pone, I am holding a King to escape with. Obviously hit anything that give us points.

Tuesday 7:11 AM

Just looking to peg out

Tuesday 7:16 AM

4 lowest cards as per RAS's previous advice. My memory says that the J has more pegging value than Q or K.

Tuesday 7:43 AM

Too tough for me. I wanted to keep the "best" peggers--the 2 and then the 8. After that it was just a random toss of two of the X cards. Fun puzzle.

Tuesday 9:36 AM

Although I would like to pitch the 2 to be fairly certain I could get two Go's, I need to keep a spread for pegging.

Tuesday 12:10 PM

Dangerous to keep the 2? So I am with JQT. Throw 2 - 10

Tuesday 3:53 PM

Although two pegs are not many for dealer to score, it would seem that four different cards would be the likely candidates. Think dealer can get those two pegs with these four cards. Grab any two any old time. Two "goes" would work as well. Dealer could also hold 8-J-Q-K and likely score the two goes. Think those choices are about equal. Yo

Tuesday 7:36 PM

This may fully depend on who I'm playing as to which 2 face cards I keep. This is how I'd keep it live against my "faithful" opponents, as I feel if they were forced to lead a face, they would less likely lead the J or Q. But sometimes I may decide to keep the (10 Q) or (J Q) combo as well. In this way, I'll take the small risk that in case pone fails to peg and count out, that I will be left with a 0-0 hand and crib. Suffice it to say I'm not too worried, and I am intent on pegging my 2 points.

Wednesday 12:23 AM

Another Interesting Endgame Playout: "Check your gun at the door!" 😧

(119*-117) (5 7 T J) (9 K) vs (8 J Q K) (2 T) 5s, Feb 4, 2025 by ccjohnson
T (10) K (20) J (30-1), J (10) 5 (15-2) Q (25=1), 7 (7) 8 (15=3), (121-120).

We don't normally think of an 8 Card as a key pegging weapon, but in the Special Case in which a Dealer needs to peg just Two Holes, a Middle Card is like a "sniper" or bolt-action 'AWP' that can 'pick off' up to seven Lead Cards in a single shot! By using the three adjacent "X" Cards in a Hand such as (8 J Q K), we can ensure that we get at least two separate volleys of pegging, so we'll sometimes get Pone to lead more than once, and this can oftentimes translate into two separate 15.5% attempts at winning the game in one fell swoop! 🥋

If that doesn't sound attractive for us as the Dealer, think of it as having odds that are nearly equal to that of prevailing if we load one bullet into a six-cylinder revolver, and beckon Pone by insisting, "No, you go first!" in a friendly 'game' of Russian Roulette. Oh, and we also say, "And you get to have at it -- twice!" (And don't tell Pone it's a Snub-Nose .38, as this takes some of the fun out of it.) 💥

Note: When a Dealer holds a Lone Middle Card, there will normally be Seven Lead Cards that can be scored upon if Pone leads one of them. For example, in a Hand such as (8 J Q K), we can score Two Points if Pone leads any of the Seven Cards (7777, 888) that allow us to score either (15=2) or a PAIR. This assumes that as the Dealer, we did not discard any of those Seven Cards, and that the Cut Card is also not one of those Seven Cards. 🥧

After we see the Cut Card, there are forty-five cards that remain unaccounted for in Cribbage. Thus, we now have 7/45 equals 0.155 or about a 15.5% chance of scoring with our 8 Card. A typical revolver has a cylinder that holds six bullets, and if only one bullet is loaded into the gun and the chamber is spun, in this adventure known as "Russian Roulette," there will now be a 1/6 equals 0.166 or nearly a 16.7% chance that pulling the trigger will make a loud noise! 🔊

Most Snub-Nose .38 caliber pistols, however, such as the popular Smith & Wesson variant, holds only five rounds, therefore this boosts the odds of our Opponent or Pone "going out with a BANG" up to 20%! In Cribbage, we learn that Little Details Matter! 🔫