February 5, 2025

*** This hand was suggested by dweier8
117-117*  ?
45%
45%
29%
29%
7%
7%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 302
dweier8I threw 6K. Figuring so many cards will help me. 2,3,4,5,9,Q all will get me 3 or more points. I ended up cutting a 5, so I had my 4 points to go out. Bigger challenge was what to lead. I led my 10, opponent countered with a 7, I played my 2 for 19 thinking if she pairs my 2 for 21, I have my jack for 31. She played an 8 for 27 and my ace for 28 was a go. left me with my Jack. Her lead was a 6, so I was safe.
jmudge

Joined: July 2020 (951 votes)

Wednesday 4:08 AM
I flip-flopped between throwing the 6 and the A. Looks like I'm alone in my choice this morning.
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6743 votes)

Wednesday 4:09 AM
The main concern is keeping a chance to add on hand preferably one that gets you into the game hole. This keep has more cards aid in this. The pegging is hoping the opponent does not have two of these cards and does not get dealt a five. dec
dec says: I have seen worst scenarios happen to people. Like being on dead hole and starting with zero, get ziltch on pegging and a nada in the hand. One was dealer was at 11 the other at 15. That hurts. dec
JQT

Joined: October 2008 (4405 votes)

Wednesday 5:00 AM
Here we are as Pone, tied at Hole 117, in a very interesting Cribbage Endgame Puzzle by dweier8. 🔰

Let's Toss (T K) today, not at all because of the Defensive Discard, but because it leaves behind the most aggressive mix of (A 2 6 Jc) for both a good Pegging Hand and a Hand that gets at least some kind of help from a whopping Thirty Eight Cut Cards (AAA, 222, 3333, 4444, 5555, 666, 7777, 8888, 9999, JJJ, Qc, Kc), or all but three Ten "T" Cards, three non-Club Queens, and two non-Club Kings. That's nearly 83% of the remaining deck that helps us! ✨

The (A 2 6 Jc) Hand are those four cards that are most likely to deliver us the Four Points we need to WIN, one way or another. After the awful Queen of Diamonds Cut Card, let's lead the Jack, as doing so leaves us holding our three best remaining pegging cards. It's unlikely we can peg Four Holes, but we can certainly try! 💪🏻

Let's rewind to 1916 at 78rpm with Fritz Kreisler (Violin) and Carl Lamson (Piano) playing 'Songs My Mother Taught Me' by Antonín Dvořák 🎻 🎹
https://youtu.be/UlktfcLNAJ0
JQT says: When we have either a FLUSH or the involvement of a Jack in Cribbage (or both), the calculations get a bit more complicated, since SUITS become involved. But if you do the work often enough, it becomes second-nature. As stated in my posting above, (A 2 6 Jc) gets help from Thirty-Eight Cuts, as it only fails to receive any help from Eight Cuts (Ts,Th,Td, Qs,Qh,Qd, Kh,Kd). Next comes (A 2 T Jc), which gets help from Thirty-Six Cuts, as it fails to receive any help from Ten Cuts (6s,6h, 7s,7h,7d, 8s,8h,8d, Kh,Kd). Equal to this comes (2 6 T Jc), which also gets help from Thirty-Six Cuts, as it also only fails to receive any help from Ten Cuts (As,Ad, 4s,4d,4d, 8s,8h,8d, Kh,Kd). After this comes (A 6 T Jc), which gets help from Thirty-Five Cuts, as it fails to receive any help from Eleven Cuts (2s,2h,2d, 3s,3h,3d, 7s,7h,7d, Kh,Kd). After this comes (A 6 Jc K), which gets help from Thirty-Four Cuts, as it fails to receive any help from Twelve Cuts (2s,2h,2d, 3s,3h,3d, 7s,7h,7d, Ts,Th,Td). Finally, comes (2 T Jc K), which gets help from Thirty-Three Cuts, as it fails to receive any help from Thirteen Cuts (As,Ad, 4s,4d,4d, 6s,6h, 7s,7h,7d, 8s,8h,8d). While some of the Cut Cards that help us today only produce a Hand that yields Two Points, it is our task and burden when that occurs to peg the difference when our Hand comes up short. Simply looking for the Hand that can always deliver us all Four Points is not the optimum solution, because more often than not, we will peg Two Holes. Always look for such "balance" or harmony, not because we expect it to happen, but because it is statistically correct. 🌠 🍹 🌿
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (6059 votes)

Wednesday 5:16 AM
I'll try it this way. I caught the corner. Lead the Jack and try to muster a point somehow.
RubyTuesday

Joined: January 2019 (1158 votes)

Wednesday 5:22 AM
6 K to dealer, I tried to keep some possible points with a variety of cards.
fentesk

Joined: January 2021 (1517 votes)

Wednesday 5:44 AM
I took the most cuts for 3 or 4 points. I'm doubtful we're going to peg out with this hand, but we need to get 4 points somehow and I think this gives me the best combined chance.
Eolus619 says: Morning fentesk..just tagging on to your thread with the cuts for 3 or 4....2-3-4-5-9-Q..with the Q cut one peg now needed
Jazzselke

Joined: March 2009 (2789 votes)

Wednesday 6:29 AM
2 possible runs, A2 for second-half pegging.
Sgt Pegger

Joined: July 2017 (584 votes)

Wednesday 6:52 AM
The 6 is a "red herring" in this position. Jazzman nails down for me.
Djgoat says: Ditto
wasa

Joined: November 2014 (3296 votes)

Wednesday 6:59 AM
Need a keep to hopefully cut for 3 or 4. J has to stay. T works with the J for the 5,9, or Q cut. 6 doesn't fit so it's getting tossed. A-2 work with the T-J with a 2,3, or 4 cut. I'd take a 5! So, by process of elimination I'm tossing 6-K
Assman

Joined: May 2024 (324 votes)

Wednesday 6:59 AM
My plan was to get a starter cut card for some points and then peg out the difference. I kept the lower cards to try to scratch out a few points on a hand that improves on anything other than a X cut. With the X cut I'm going to have to peg the four points. Lead with the 6.
Falseclaimofgame_

Joined: February 2023 (76 votes)

Wednesday 7:13 AM
Cribbage sucks.
Eolus619

Joined: June 2020 (1650 votes)

Wednesday 8:21 AM
To begin..thanks to dweier8 for what appears to be a first time puzzle submission..keep um coming..My contribution today is pdf link from our ACC Hall of Famer's video class on Pone intial leads. Click the link below and scroll down [page 2] to 10-J-Q-K leads and read Ras's thought's [remember by his own admission Ras has a convoluted cribbage mind!!} on leading a J when playing as n/d.

https://vashoncribbage.weebly.com/uploads/5/6/7/4/56741021/lesson4-4.pdf

Annabella says: Thank you for this Eolus619, always good to be reminded! Thank you to RAS too, for all his work/ research, and sharing with us all.
Eolus619 says: welcome Annabelle..AND..if you have not taken his full class suggest you give it a try
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4236 votes)

Wednesday 8:57 AM
Hope for a useful cut. Keeping multiple X cards might make pegging difficult.
Inushtuk1

Joined: July 2016 (1746 votes)

Wednesday 9:21 AM
I'm not as good a pegger as John. I kept for the better chances to cut for a 4 point hand. Almost there. Lead the J. Keep the A-s intact for later. We were fortunate not to cut a J. There was a 6.5% chance; which would have been near fatal.
MarktheShark

Joined: January 2024 (388 votes)

Wednesday 9:31 AM
6, T, K ... pick any two? T-K seems best for two meld points plus some pegging. Unfortunately, the actual cut disappoints, but I do not play "results".
domandcarol

Joined: August 2023 (58 votes)

Wednesday 11:41 AM
Not much to work with here. Thought tossing K6 leaves opportunities for pegging as well as getting help from cut.
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5598 votes)

Wednesday 2:45 PM
At 117-117* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the Dealer Peg Out %s and Our Peg Out %s are:

Defense_____Dealer Peg Out %___Our Peg Out %_____Win %
A-2-6-J__________37.6______________5.3____________66.3
A-2-6-K__________37.6______________5.3____________61.8
A-2-6-10_________37.6______________5.3____________60.7
6-10-J-K_________42.6______________5.0____________53.7
A-10-J-K_________39.5______________3.5____________52.4
2-10-J-K_________38.0______________3.4____________54.8
A-6-10-J_________34.2______________2.0____________60.0
A-6-J-K__________34.3______________1.6____________53.5
A-2-10-J_________36.3______________1.5____________64.0
A-6-10-K_________35.9______________1.2____________42.6
2-6-10-J_________34.4______________0.8____________62.6

A-2-6-X is best for Our Peg Out %s and is reasonably low for Dealer Peg Out %s plus it is best for Win %s. So, I'll keep the J for the chance of his nob and throw the best balker of 10-K.

After the Q cut I'll lead the J and play Offense:

Lead_____________Our Pegging Points
J_______________________0.98
6_______________________0.95
2_______________________0.72
A_______________________0.71
Andy (muesli64)

Joined: August 2009 (2303 votes)

Wednesday 3:38 PM
I must not lose sight that quite likely I will need some points to declare in my hand. Pegging might not be enough for either player. So let's keep the adjacent cards.
MiketheExpert

Joined: April 2021 (1307 votes)

Wednesday 6:58 PM
(A 2 10 J) has a total of 36/46 cuts which will aid the hand (including the cuts of the same suit of J, which will only add 1 point.) Of these 36 cuts, 6 will add 2 points or less (AdAs,6c,7c,8c,Kc). (A 2 6 J) has a total of 38/46 cuts which will aid the hand, however a whopping 22 out of these 38 cuts will add 2 points or less!(AdAs,4d4h4s,5d5h5s,7d7h7s,8d8h8s,9d9h9s,JdJhJs,Qc,Kc). I'm not very confident in my ability to peg 2 points with either of these arrangements as pone - so I am definitely going for the most points after the cut here.
MiketheExpert says: Excuse me. I guess 12 cuts of 36, not 6 will add 2 points or less. Add the 3 10's and 3 J's to this total as well for keeping (A 2 10 J). Still, 12 is much less than 22...So it is (36-12) = 24 of greater than 2 points, compared to (38-22) = 16. This difference is still enough for me to retain the (A 2 10 J), as I don't believe it will be as easy as some believe to peg 2 pts as pone here.
MiketheExpert says: After the Q cut, we only need to peg 1 without giving dealer 4 points. I think a face card lead (J) is still best. I believe dealer will be very cautious to 15 this lead, unless he has a pair covered. My best hope is still to keep my low cards for a go, especially needing only 1 point.
MiketheExpert says: I would be interested in learning people's thoughts about leading low (such as the deuce needing only 1 point), seeing as dealer should be reluctant to pair it,but may be forced to do so needing to peg some points. We are probably in trouble even to get 1 point if this happens, but if we can manage to run dealer out of cards, we may be lucky enough to be left with our high card as the last one played - it still seems like a risky ploy to me.
JQT says: I always enjoy reading your ideas, MtE. The need to peg One Hole is of course a "whole different animal" than needing to peg ANY OTHER AMOUNT, be it more or less. I think your final idea has merit, but of course with two Small Cards, pegging One Hole (or more) should occur far more often than not pegging anything. Still, there will be those occasions when the Dealer shuts us out, which brings me back to the challenge of needing to peg with (A 2 6 J). We agree that this hand gets help from the most cuts, and yet I think we also agree that this help will be LESS IN VALUE.
JQT says: Assume for a moment that I could indeed prove that we'll "peg enough" and do so "often enough" to make up for any difference. Now, here is where I believe such a hand choice becomes a matter of the psychological "hit" that I will incur a portion of the time, like the football coach who maybe also has the numbers to prove that "going for it" on Fourth Down and 'One Yard to Go' can indeed be justified! The issue becomes: When he does fail, even if he fails LESS OFTEN when taking this risk, he shall now have to endure the embarrassment and possible ridicule of the players, the other coaches, and the fans! 🏈
JQT says: In Cribbage, what this translates to is that imagine that I may in fact win a slightly higher percentage of the time with a certain choice, but when I do lose, it will sometimes occur because I was not able to peg, or my hand was too weak. The Queen Cut today is a very good example: When (A 2 6 J) does now fail, it will look and feel terrible holding a 'Nothing Burger' of a Hand! So, even if I may statistically WIN a higher percentage of the time (and I know that's still debatable, although the program does tend to confirm it), I think we can also agree that it will definitely feel worse for me when I LOSE in such a manner. Thanks for your thoughts and analysis. 🥶
RGM

Joined: January 2021 (1066 votes)

Wednesday 7:55 PM
Rosemarie44

Joined: March 2016 (2140 votes)

Thursday 2:54 AM
I am late to the party. I see the reason. The hand hasn't changed to the new day 2/6.