Saturday 3:19 AM

We want to become the Next Dealer at or beyond the Third Street Par Hole 70, so we should retain our best hand of (4 4 7 8). Toss (2 8) or Toss (4 8) are the defensive options, but we really wish to reach our target! 🎯

Let's Toss (2 2) today.

After the Ace Cut, we still have just Six Points in our hand, so it would be nice to peg Four Points if possible. Let's lead a 4 Card from our PAIR, which allows us to score after a Dozen Replies (3333, 44, 777, 888). 🍀

Saturday 3:58 AM

I do not like trading two for two here (2s). Still could hit a dozen here and I have my check lead although considered leading the seven here. With six points now I will lead my four and perhaps I can still do my twos for three or four. dec

Saturday 4:57 AM

I'll keep my paltry points.

Saturday 5:56 AM

I thought about 8-4 or 8-2. The deciding factor was that a 5 cut helps 2447 but not 2247. 2247 has a three card eleven though...

Saturday 6:01 AM

Need to get to 70 or close, 4478 it is. Hope dealer doesn't get to 85.

Saturday 6:01 AM

Need to get to 70 or close, 4478 it is. Hope dealer doesn't get to 85.

Saturday 6:37 AM

I am not happy to toss a pair of twos to opponent. He/she is dealing and is in position already.

Saturday 6:59 AM

Need the 6 points in hand now and deal with tossing 22 to crib when it’s time. Hope A cut doesn’t blow the game up!

Saturday 7:45 AM

Plenty of “needs “ here..need to get into CPZ #3…69-73 after this hand ..need to improve on 96*-105 ..next two hands ..need a favorable cut ..3-4-7-8-10

Saturday 9:49 AM

At 60-63* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Dlr's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib____Total_____W4 %____W5 %
2-4-4-7____6.22+(-2.28)+(-4.40)=(-0.46)___10.3____33.2
2-2-4-7____6.22+(-2.39)+(-4.37)=(-0.54)___10.8____33.9
4-4-7-8____7.87+(-2.57)+(-6.08)=(-0.78)___13.6____35.8

Defense_____L4 %____L5 %
2-4-4-7______19.6____46.3
2-2-4-7______19.8____46.0
4-4-7-8______25.0____46.4

2-4-4-7 is best for expected averages by 0.08pt. Although 4-4-7-8 is considerably best for Win %s it is considerably worst for Loss %s. 2-2-4-7 is very slightly better than 2-4-4-7 for Win %s and very slightly lower for Loss %s. So, I'll select a 4-8 to discard.

After the A cut I'll lead a 2 and play Offense:

Lead_______________Our Pegging Points
2_________________________1.64
7_________________________1.49
4_________________________1.21

Saturday 10:10 AM

Looks like HAL and I disagree.

And HAL is up early... it's barely noon EDT and HAL's results have been posted.

Saturday 11:25 AM

Close decision. My first thought was to pitch the 2-2 so I could risk reaching my par hole 70, but then I noticed the 4-8 and 2-8 which allows me to approach it with a good cut or pegging. Not willing to help Dealer (who is well behind his par hole) catch up with a potentially large crib.

Saturday 11:33 AM

2 2 to dealer’s crib. I’m hanging on to the points.

Saturday 3:27 PM

Prefer the 2-2 throw. As quite a few cut options that will put me to 70 and more. And I need to be offensive?

Saturday 3:56 PM

Score from an actual online game I was playing, and this is the hand I was dealt. I happened to pick HAL's choice within the game and toss (4 8), though I think the cut card was a 3 instead of an A, thus it worked out a lot better for me at the time. Why the (4 8)? I'm not afraid of tossing the deuces, but the starting hand sacrifice of 2 pts seemed worth it. - 1)the much safer crib throw 2)I still had several cuts to get me a large hand and into 3rd street (~hole 70), which should be the goal. 3) Pegging on this hand seems to be substantially better whether choosing an offense or defense strategy. I will admit to my initial strategy being offense to include the pegging, which appears to be the opposite of HAL's analysis, even though we have chosen the same keep. During the game, I ended up leading the 4 from this hold (switching to defense after the favourable cut), but after the A cut, would also probably lead from the pair of deuces.

Saturday 4:00 PM

Half to prioritize a middle card cut to get close to 70.

Saturday 4:41 PM

Seems like the best way to go….

Saturday 7:13 PM

Choosing to be offensive today with my keep. I'm happy to see it is a clear winner on the Win% from Hal's analysis.

Saturday 7:22 PM

Lonely on my island