February 9, 2025

*** This hand was suggested by goninnygo
0-0*  ?
34%
34%
17%
17%
14%
14%
14%
14%
11%
11%
3%
3%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 251
goninnygoWent for the aggressive 88 toss, wondering how you all would start the game as the pone here.
JQT

Joined: October 2008 (4405 votes)

Sunday 3:30 AM
Holding just Four Points and giving away a PAIR of 8 Cards is no way to begin a game, unless we want to play "Catch-Up" Cribbage for the remainder of the game. Doing so could only give us a Maximum of Ten Points, and yet could result in the Enemy Crib getting Twenty-Four Points! šŸŒ‹

That leaves us with Keep (4 8 8 T) as perhaps a viable solution. However, we could end up with just Two Points after a massive Twenty Cuts (2222, 6666, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK), which is 20/46 equals 0.435 or nearly 44% of the time. šŸ˜§

Surprisingly perhaps is Keep (A 4 8 T), which can start us off with a known Four Points, since every Cut Card ALWAYS adds at least Two Points! Our Maximum Hand will only be Six Points, and this will occur after just Nine Cuts (AAA, 444, TTT). But Toss (8 Q) is very defensive, and this leaves us with a better Pegging Hand as well. šŸ“

Who would have ever believed that Toss (8 Q) is optimum, as it 'splits' apart the only real strength we were seemingly dealt, the PAIR of 8 Cards? We would, that's who! We did our homework. šŸ“˜

Let's Toss (8h Q) today. After the splendid 9 Card Cut, we now have Five Points. Let's lead the 4 Card and try to peg a few holes. šŸŒ±
Ras2829

Joined: November 2008 (5470 votes)

Sunday 4:36 AM
Choosing offense as n/d of first hand, it is essential to realize that offense is a result of pegs scored, score of hand, less crib score. Now A-4-10-Q does have the best hand score potential. Had the choice been A-4-J-Q or A-4-10-J, holding either of those would justify tossing 8-8 - just barely. As JQT points out above, A-4-8-10 has slightly better offensive pegging (both peg less than 1.5 on average though). And 8-Q to crib has a much lower average than does 8-8. The Cribbage Prof shows the 8-8 at more than two points greater than 8-Q and my empirical data shows 8-8 to be more than 3 points greater than 8-Q. Will lead the four and take nay pegs offered.
Rosemarie44

Joined: March 2016 (2140 votes)

Sunday 4:39 AM
Looks like I am in the majority this morning. Offense as non dealer.
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6743 votes)

Sunday 4:58 AM
If I had six points to keep in the hand I might ponder the eights. I agree with the insights on the previous comments. Four lead here. dec
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (6059 votes)

Sunday 5:37 AM
When in doubt Ace-Face. Cannot win the game on first street, but you can lose it.
mfetchCT425

Joined: February 2009 (1554 votes)

Sunday 5:58 AM
With these cards, donā€™t think itā€™s worth the risk of discarding 8-8. 8-Q is a respectable crib balking discard as well. Letā€™s stay alive to play another hand.
Eolus619

Joined: June 2020 (1650 votes)

Sunday 7:10 AM
When playing as NON DEALER , realize that 11/13 pairs across the board average over SIX POINTS. A review of the discard tables is is in orderā€¦and a copy/ paste of several above comments is too

1)Holding just Four Points and giving away a PAIR of 8 Cards is no way to begin a game, unless we want to play "Catch-Up" Cribbage for the remainder of the game..thx JQT

2) Cannot win the game on first street, but you can lose it...Thx Gougie00

http://www.cribbageforum.com/SchellDiscard.htm
Eolus619 says: a btw..i copy this from Rasā€™s tips on the ACC websiteā€¦when playing as non dealer he was speaking about avoiding discarding cards with only one space between them ..but today playing as dealer certain keeps above benefit from that one space axiom ..so his axiom is ā€œflippedā€ showing the advantage of dealer keeping cards with one space in the hand when the situation allows ā€œBe wary of cards with one space between them (K-J, Q-10, J-9, 10-8, 9-7, 8-6, 7-5, 6-4, 5-3, 4-2 and 3-1) as it only takes one card from the dealer to complete the sequence and a double run on the cut is a frequent result.ā€
Eolus619 says: while I am at it ..one of Rasā€™s video classes is about not being over come by ā€œdouble run hypnosisā€ ..well another axiom might be to not be over come by Colvertā€™s axiom ā€œthe non-dealer must play offense with his very first card played in the gameā€ Todayā€™s six cards say do not do it
Assman

Joined: May 2024 (324 votes)

Sunday 7:44 AM
Ditto.
Assman says: Lead with the 4.
MiketheExpert

Joined: April 2021 (1307 votes)

Sunday 7:45 AM
This is hand is too weak and the pair of 8's are too dangerous across the board, even on offense. I will opt for the safety of the (8 Q). After the 9 cut for 5 points, let's lead the A and try to peg a few.
MiketheExpert says: It should also be noted that every cut card helps this hand, another strong reason to toss the safe (8 Q) for optimal results.
Sgt Pegger

Joined: July 2017 (584 votes)

Sunday 7:56 AM
I agree with the others that went with the A,4,8,10.
Djgoat

Joined: December 2023 (185 votes)

Sunday 8:03 AM
Weak start so help them as little as possible I suppose
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5598 votes)

Sunday 10:21 AM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W9 %____W10 %
A-4-8-10___4.48+1.39+(-4.22)=1.65____18.5____19.2
A-4-10-Q___6.26+1.33+(-6.28)=1.31____21.0____18.5
4-8-8-10___3.96+1.46+(-4.37)=1.05____23.3____21.8
A-4-8-8____4.43+1.28+(-4.92)=0.79____17.8____18.0
A-4-8-Q____4.22+1.35+(-4.84)=0.73____18.5____19.2
A-8-8-10___3.96+1.15+(-4.40)=0.71____21.4____20.6

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
A-4-8-10______36.7____53.8
A-4-10-Q______41.3____55.9
4-8-8-10______36.1____50.7
A-4-8-8_______38.0____55.0
A-4-8-Q_______38.3____55.6
A-8-8-10______36.0____51.6

A-4-8-10 is best for expected averages by 0.31pt. over A-4-10-Q. However, 4-8-8-10 is considerably best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So, even though it's the very start of the game I'll decide based on the Win/Loss %s and select A-Q to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll lead an 8 and play Offense:

Lead_________Our Pegging Points
8____________________1.32
4____________________1.19
10___________________1.07
Eolus619 says: hmmm..hard to process that leading a card that will allow dealer to 15/2 with a reply is better than leading a card where that canā€™t happen
JQT says: The task is to manage the overall NET pegging by the Dealer, and not simply lead the safest card. If you lead the 4 Card and the Dealer either PAIRS it or responds with a 7 Card, now you've got real problems brewing. The Dealer can ALWAYS score Two Points on ANY Lead Card, unless it's a Small Card and you can account for ALL FOUR OF THEM! Therefore, it's almost always best to lead from a PAIR with hands such as this. šŸ
Eolus619 says: thx John..ALWAYS appreciate your input ..Ras leads the four ..I am in his camp today
JQT says: RAS and I lead 4 Card from (A 4 8 T); Halscrib 8 Card is being led from (4 8 8 T). My comments above are about leading from the Halscrib choice of (4 8 8 T).
JQT says: Mixing Apples šŸŽ and Oranges šŸŠ and Pears! šŸ
Eolus619 says: šŸ‘
fentesk says: I don't think (m)any could guess from the hand/pegs/crib numbers that the win/loss numbers would have such a notable difference to make 4-8-8-10 the choice today. It would be interesting to see how 4-8-8-Q scored to determine if it's just the 9 cuts that put it over the top, or if there's something else that can push so much ahead that you'd see it so markedly 9/10 deals down the board.
RubyTuesday

Joined: January 2019 (1158 votes)

Sunday 10:57 AM
Q 8 is a hopefully unhelpful throw to dealer