Thursday 4:23 AM

I'm where I want to be; opponent is behind. Not interested in giving any points.

Thursday 4:32 AM

You premised this by saying it was a best 2/3. In this scenario I would play defense by discarding 4-8 and leading the four. The score margin would have to be much different for me here. If I needed a three point win 7-8 would go. dec

Thursday 4:39 AM

And just like that, Jennie was gone.

Thursday 5:25 AM

I have the potential to have 7 or 8 points with this hand. Am I too risky tossing a pair? Looking at 4h street.

Thursday 6:17 AM

I think this is our best defensive move and I am inclined not help them any more than I have to.

Thursday 6:30 AM

Well ahead. Give dealer the worst!!

Thursday 6:31 AM

I’m with DJ. Lead the 4.

Thursday 6:31 AM

Slightly surprised the 4-7 toss is so far down the standings at present, as it is relatively safe and improves with every cut bar a 9. Nice puzzle.

Thursday 6:41 AM

We are Pone on the rickety 'Front Porch' of Fourth Street, whilst leading the Dealer by Nine Holes. It's as though a wicked crosswind were hampering us as we assay our predicament at the remaining 465 yards of an uphill dogleg right known as "Holly," the Eighteenth Hole at the pending Augusta Masters Tournament. "Par Seven," Jeeves, "This is NO Best-of-Three Situation: Put Away that Pitching Wedge!" ⛳ 🎭 🌸

We need just Seven Points or more (Target of >= 7 Points) to become the Next Dealer at or beyond the Fourth Street Par Hole 96, and this might be readily achievable with Hand Choices of: (5 5 7 8), (4 4 5 5), or (4 4 7 8), but these three prospective ideas involve extremely dangerous Pone Discards of Toss (4 4), Toss (7 8), or Toss (5 5), respectively. Such ideas probably fall into the idiomatic realm of "Tossing out The Baby with the Bath Water."

However, (4 4 5 7) on the other hand, might be a more viable alternative idea, as here we would Toss (5 8), which is somewhat safer "overseas." Toss (4 8) or Toss (4 7) could also work nicely in the Enemy Crib, but these two ideas leave behind (4 5 5 7) or (4 5 5 8), respectively, and these are somewhat weaker propositions for our Hand Choice. (It's akin to Poor Baby falling out of the Ugly Tree, and Hitting Several Branches on the way down!")

As far as "Risking Baby" goes, and most readily advancing toward our desired target of Hole 96, let's examine the number as well as the attendant percentage of Cut Cards that "boost" a specific Hand the required amount or more:

Keep (5 5 7 8) and Toss (4 4) has Forty "boosters" of (2222, 3333, 55, 6666, 777, 888, 9999, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK), which means we should achieve our own Offensive Target about 40/46 equals 0.870 or a whopping 87% of the time;

Keep (4 4 5 5) and Toss (7 8) has Thirty-Six "boosters" of (AAAA, 2222, 3333, 44, 55, 6666, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK), which means we should achieve our own Offensive Target about 36/46 equals 0.783 or around 78% of the time;

Keep (4 4 7 8) and Toss (5 5) has only Twenty "boosters" of (3333, 44, 6666, 777, 888, 9999), which means we should achieve our own Offensive Target about 20/46 equals 0.435 or around 44% of the time.

When it comes inserting a measure added safety (but possibly emerging with an Ugly Baby) that likely 'falls short' of our desired target of Hole 96:

Keep (4 5 5 7) and Toss (4 8) has Twenty-Six "boosters" of (3333, 55, 6666, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK), which means we could achieve our own Offensive Target about 26/46 equals 0.565 or around 57% of the time;

Keep (4 5 5 8) and Toss (4 7) also has Twenty-Six "boosters" of (3333, 55, 6666, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK), which means we could achieve our own Offensive Target about 26/46 equals 0.565 or around 57% of the time;

Most charts list Toss (4 7) as slightly safer than Toss (4 8), and the former also entails a bit more "Negative Delta" as a discard, so we may be tempted to rule that, between these two ideas, Toss (4 7) is perhaps better than Toss (4 8).

But best be aware that a few notable sources, such as the empirical data collected by none other than our very own "Cribbage Hall of Fame" Member Elmer George "Ras" Rasmussen, has found that Toss (4 8) may actually be the safer of these two Pone Discards; and with a scant difference of 0.060 Points, it could be intuited that these two ideas are essentially equal.

We still lack a definitive answer, and Baby wants a New Pair of Shoes! Poor Bruce (Eolus619) is still stuck between a Rock and a Place of Significantly Determined Hardness, in a Best-of-Three Games "Rubber" Match, and so the stakes could not be any higher for my Dear Colorado Friend and Favorite Prime Number Aficionado!

If we're going to stick our necks out, I like the risk/reward ratio of Toss (4 4), but I'm not too sure it's worth a whole neck, even with our Dealer Opponent 'lumbering' along at Hole 80, so I may be inclined to hold (4 5 5 7) as a 'Hybrid Solution' to what is certainly an interesting problem. (Don't Do Drugs, Children.) 🧪 🧬 💊

Let's Toss (4d 8) today, Two-Squared and Two-Cubed, because any way we 'slice-and-dice' it: it's the Beautiful, Bountiful, Binary Solution to the Big Problem. (Swiss Polymath, Leonhard Euler, would definitely like it!) We unload the Diamond-Suited 4 Card as a measure of self-denial and austerity . . .

After the 8 Card Cut, while we may not be thrilled, at least we didn't Toss (7 8) like 'those other guys,' after which we might have to audibly hiss, like a kitten when it sees the zucchini. It's really the only appropriate reaction when seeing a disastrous Cut Card in Cribbage. Lead the 7 Card in order to throw them off our trail and keep them guessing. 🥒 💥 🐈

Thursday 6:42 AM

47 a little safer than 48.

Thursday 7:37 AM

Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!

Thursday 8:15 AM

Hopefully this'll get me to 95+ without too much damage. Lead a 4.

Thursday 8:22 AM

I've kept the 6 card cut shot for 14, without giving away the store. Only four points after the cut means playing Offense with the 7 lead. If dealer makes the count 11 I get (15-4). If he makes the count (17) I have the 5 as part of my Sweet Sixteen. With a better cut I would have led the 4. Might get (29-6) that way.

Thursday 8:25 AM

Defense with a twist. With the 6 points in hand and potential for pegging, we should land in a very competitive board position. Lead a 4.

Thursday 9:21 AM

I want to be at or beyond 96. Even behind, current dealer is 16 out with three shows before they deal next so they're highly likely to be dealing above 96 at their next chance.

Tossing 4-4 gives me the best odds of getting my 7, so that's the way I'm going today. If I'm playing defense I'd send 4-7, but I don't expect that will keep dealer short of 96 by next deal, and there aren't a ton of cuts for 7+ (

Thursday 9:24 AM

Interesting to see the % difference between 2 similar tosses of 4-5-5-7.

Thursday 12:15 PM

ditto..7 over 8 choice for the possible double run

Thursday 2:15 PM

At 89-80* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Dlr's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib____Total_____W2 %____W3 %
4-4-5-5____9.43+(-2.89)+(-7.14)=(-0.60)___24.1____68.0
4C-5-5-8___6.09+(-3.20)+(-3.99)=(-1.10)___10.9____60.1
4-4-5H-7___7.43+(-2.61)+(-6.02)=(-1.20)___16.9____65.0
5-5-7-8____7.83+(-3.41)+(-5.99)=(-1.57)___13.1____66.6
4-5-5-7____6.17+(-3.65)+(-4.30)=(-1.78)___25.8____67.8

Defense______L2 %____L3 %
4-4-5-5_______5.0_____13.7
4C-5-5-8______1.4_____15.1
4-4-5H-7______2.4_____15.4
5-5-7-8_______2.8_____14.6
4-5-5-7_______1.7_____11.1

4-4-5-5 is best for expected averages by 0.50pt. and although it is high for Loss %s it a close second best for Win %s so I'll select the 7-8 to discard.

After the 8 cut I'll lead a 4 and play Offense:

Lead____________Our Pegging Points
4______________________1.50
5______________________1.12

Thursday 3:06 PM

See no reason to choose defense as need to deal upcoming hand from 4th street CPZ (95-99). That's just six points away. Dealer has the deck in middle of nowhere. Since the 8 starter is of great help to my 7-8 discard, will lead a four and take any pegs offered. Don't despair as 2-4 pegs would put n/d on target to win unless crib tallies 20 or more points. Don't fold once looking at that cut!

Thursday 3:52 PM

Took a chance and lost, but see that it was a chance worth taking.