SallyAnn3 says: RAS, I agree with you about Dan's opinions. I highy value them and find him a very skilled player, especially at end game!

JJx7fan says: Thank you!! :)

JQT says: HalscribCLX is "right on the threshold" of allowing the retention of the Double Run today, but a LOT of players will *sense the danger* as hinted at by the program's significantly higher Loss Rate for this decision! After performing dozens of playouts with REX using both choices, I am still inclined to play SAFE today and hold (5 7 8 9), and I'll answer the positional question with this in mind; but I think that most of my analyses will apply, regardless of the answer chosen. In Cribbage, we generally play or assess OUR OWN POSITION FIRST. If I didn't know our Own Score here, I would say that holding onto the Double Run maybe begins to make sense when the Dealer is not yet on Fourth Street, which means Hole 90 or less. Let's tackle some easy positions first: If we were at Hole 106 to Hole 109 and leading, then we shall likely go out at completion of THIS DEAL, so in this case, we would certainly hold the Double Run. And I should HOPE that all players see that as Pone at Hole 116 or higher (and leading), we don't need a Double Run to go out, so we should retain our best pegging Hand, which would probably be (2 7 8 9) and Toss (5 9). Those are the easy cases. Now, back to the REAL GAME and to address the issue being discussed: The first question we should ask ourselves whether Discarding or Pegging in Cribbage is, "Do WE need the Points?" At Hole 94 as Pone, we need only Two Points to reach "par," which by definition means that at exactly Hole 96 as Next Dealer, we shall then have exactly a 50% chance of reaching our next "target" (Hole 121) after our Three Counts (Scoring Pegging, Hand, and Crib as the Dealer, and then scoring our Pegging and Hand as Pone: that, in a nutshell, is Colvert's "Twenty-Six Theory". DeLynn couldn't add, so he was "off" by one, which is a joke that I think he would laugh at, may he Rest In Peace.) Every hole beyond the "target" helps *boost* that initial 50% figure significantly, so it would be *really great* to get to Hole 99 or farther, and (5 7 8 9) will do this nicely with even more after all but Four Cuts (4444), or 42/46 equals 0.913, or greater than 91% of the time! Thus, knowing OUR position on the board allows us to play even more conservatively, since we only need to score Two Points to achieve par, and with (5 7 8 9) we're ALWAYS getting Five Points, and we're even getting MORE over 91% of the time! Note that if we began at a score of say (90-94*), that the Dealer's Score is no longer the "driving factor" that affects our Discard Decision: now we are virtually FORCED to hold (7 8 9 9), and retain the Double Run! Repeated for emphasis: In Cribbage, we generally play or assess OUR OWN POSITION FIRST. The reality is, since we are Pone at Hole 94 in this puzzle, we are probably NOT going to be lacking sufficient points to go out two deals from now MOST OF THE TIME. That allows us to be more conservative with how we judge the threat or danger presented by our Opponent. I hope this helps. 🌿