March 12, 2025

*** This hand was suggested by goatman
116-117*  ?
39%
39%
21%
21%
19%
19%
9%
9%
4%
4%
2%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 323
goatmanHave to stay away from pegging…however have to keep enough to go out. Which six combo is best to defend pegging or is the 3567 the most sagacious keep.
glmccuskey

Joined: April 2011 (4416 votes)

Wednesday 3:22 AM
Leading the three I think this is best for avoiding dealer pegs.
GeminiDream

Joined: January 2025 (78 votes)

Wednesday 3:26 AM
Razor sharp endgame situation. As most of you so far, I decided to keep six points and hope to somehow avoid the Dealer pegging out before we can count our hand first. Looking to avoid traps during the actual play of the hand.
mrob2199

Joined: February 2009 (1624 votes)

Wednesday 3:33 AM
I like this hold for a number of reasons-we have enough points to go out,the safe 3 lead,and the likelihood that dealer will only keep one 6 or 9- meaning our hand is even stronger defensively
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (6070 votes)

Wednesday 3:42 AM
I missed the 3369, but 3357 is probably a better pegger and I had ideas of pegging out.
Annabella says: As they say in Ireland, “ I had notions” hahha ☘️
Gougie00 says: Not all of my "notions" are good ones. The dealer is at 117 and will be in attack mode. I figured some counterpunching might be in order.
JQT

Joined: October 2008 (4416 votes)

Wednesday 3:56 AM
Holding a RUN is dangerous, since the Dealer needs only Four Points during the pegging to defeat us, and we have nearly a 9% chance of a Jack Cut! The Run ideas would likely garner more points, but these are very dangerous Pegging Hands with a Dealer at Hole 117. 

I'm more inclined to hold (3 3 6 9) as a Defensive Pegging Hand, which I believe is a much more perspicacious way to handle our delicate position. No other idea both allows us to hold enough to go out, while also getting rid of the dangerous 5 Card while giving us a SAFE Lead Card. 

After the Ace Cut, now we can lead a Trey, and; if the Dealer scores on our Lead Card, then we WIN with our Second Card Played, another Trey. 3️⃣

If a Jack Cut had occurred, we may wish to simply try to peg as much as possible, in most cases just to reduce the number of Spread Points by which we lose. 

Otherwise, in response to our Trey Lead, then if the Dealer plays a(n): 

Ace, Deuce, or 6 Card, reply with our 6 Card (PAIR the 6 Card); 

Trey, 7, 8, 9, or "X" Card, reply with our other Trey (don't PAIR the 9 Card reply); 

4 or 5 Card, reply with our 9 Card. 🍷
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: You've covered all the bases this day. Leading from a small pair in end game situations often allows n/d to win with first count and to avoid pegs enroute to win.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi John. Sounds great. So what if the J is cut and we decide to cut the spread? What do we lead to cut the spread?
Eolus619 says: So John…” perspicacious”..in a cribbage post……. per contra I was under the impression that we had reached an agreement that you would NOT be sampling the cooking sherry ( for inspiration & stimulation of course ) that you have 🤔 been putting in your pancake batter @ breakfast ..which is a non cribbage matter …but still matters
JQT says: Thank you RAS for the kind words, I trust you are keeping well, and Bruce, the Puzzle Composer, goatman, used the word "sagacious" so "perspicacious" was an echo to this! Hello Mike, If a Jack Cut does influence us, it doesn't do too much, and we could still lead a Trey with some hope of giving up just One Point during the pegging. But pegging just Two Holes by the Dealer is so common, so after a Jack Cut, we might just try leading our 9 Card. This gives us a very slight opportunity to peg our Treys back-to-back for Three or Four Points, even if the Dealer prevails, although it does allow the Dealer to score and WIN immediately with Six Cards (666, 999) instead of just Two Cards (33). The fact is, if the Dealer can "match" any of our cards, or score a (15=2), (31=2), or a Run, or a "go" plus Last Card, we are certain to LOSE anyway. So we should probably score all we can if a Jack Cut does occur with the Dealer now starting at Hole 119. 🍪 🧃
JQT says: To wit: Say the Dealer has Four "X" Cards, after a Jack Cut it might go as follows: (116-119*) (3 3 6 9) vs (Q K K K): 9?! (9) Q (19) 6 (25) "go" 3 (28) 3 (31-4), K (10) K (20=2), (120-121*). If we had led the Trey: 3 (3) Q (13) 3 (16) K (26=1), 6 (6) K (16) 9 (25-1), K (10=1), (117-121*). We LOSE in either case, but by Leading the 9 Card and saving the Treys, we salvaged Three Spread Points, which might become important in either a tournament or stakes game! 🏆
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6754 votes)

Wednesday 5:07 AM
Pegging out to get five points and limit them to three difficult. I will go with the defensive hold here with some safe plays off my three lead. dec
Eolus619 says: Morning dec…Pone replies with a F/T to your trey..you then play what card ? thx
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4247 votes)

Wednesday 5:14 AM
I've learned a new word today. 3sp lead.
HfxKen

Joined: February 2020 (1154 votes)

Wednesday 5:14 AM
Don't want to anywhere near a run.Peg avoidance and enough to go out.
Assman

Joined: May 2024 (336 votes)

Wednesday 5:19 AM
Lead with a 3.
wasa

Joined: November 2014 (3306 votes)

Wednesday 5:42 AM
As others have said.... I want to keep the pair of 3s for my lead. I don't want to keep the run, as I'm trying to prevent my opponent from pegging out. Hence, the 3-3-6-9 combo works well today, with the 9 my escape card if needed.
mfetchCT425

Joined: February 2009 (1558 votes)

Wednesday 5:44 AM
Safety in numbers with the two 3’s. We can lead one with complete impunity. This hold also has more disparity in pip count to better avoid any run complications.
domandcarol

Joined: August 2023 (67 votes)

Wednesday 5:51 AM
Learning how end game positions may dramatically change your total hand strategy. This time no need to keep run as there’s another 6 point option to 121. Also I see spreading out hand can help avoid setting dealer to peg out. Therefore, 57 to crib.
P.S.
Thanks ras2829 for your encouragement!
Sgt Pegger

Joined: July 2017 (593 votes)

Wednesday 6:26 AM
Lead a 3 and we should be ok on this one. Any other hold (imo), is opening up a can of worms for the pone to peg-out on us.
MarktheShark

Joined: January 2024 (399 votes)

Wednesday 7:19 AM
Keep enough to go out. Spread the cards out. Do not help Dealer peg with a run.
SallyAnn3

Joined: March 2020 (1164 votes)

Wednesday 7:39 AM
echo.....

dec says: ty for yesterday... I am currently involved with a house renovation project for the time being... hopefully Nashua tourney will be able to attend. Congrats to you and Jenn again.
SallyAnn3 says: Thanks :)
Rosemarie44

Joined: March 2016 (2151 votes)

Wednesday 7:42 AM
Ditto. errands took priority. holding 3357 I felt that the cards were too close together.
31for14

Joined: May 2019 (784 votes)

Wednesday 8:52 AM
All the sane reasons as Rob and the Sarge
RubyTuesday

Joined: January 2019 (1169 votes)

Wednesday 11:19 AM
I thought the same as Gougie.
Djgoat

Joined: December 2023 (194 votes)

Wednesday 12:26 PM
This was the first thing I saw so I went with it. Leading a 3 and just hope he pairs it!
JJx7fan

Joined: December 2023 (72 votes)

Wednesday 1:06 PM
For the same reason others have said.
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5609 votes)

Wednesday 2:14 PM
At 116-117* playing a BOLD strategy for the pegging the Dealer Peg Out %s, Our Peg Out %s and Hold Enough %s are:

Bold______Dlr Peg Out %____Our Peg Out %____Hold Out %
3-6-7-9________37.3____________0.0_____________70.4
3-3-6-9________37.8____________0.4____________100.0
3-5-6-7________39.3____________2.7____________100.0

3-3-6-9 has the second lowest chance of Dealer Pegging Out but of course it is guaranteed to Hold Enough so I'll select the 5-7 to discard.

After the A cut I'll lead the 9 and play Defense:

Lead____________Dealer's Pegging Points
9______________________(-1.74)
6______________________(-1.79)
3______________________(-1.81)
superdow says: Why lead the 9?
superdow says: Oh I see, 9 results in 1.74 pegging points....who would have guessed that....
superdow says: I would still lead the 3 though
JQT says: Yeah, we're now talking HUNDREDTHS of a point at most, and we're entering the Mysteries of Halscrib's computations. The Dealer will often get a "go" plus Last Card, so if the Dealer can "match" any of our card ranks, we may be in trouble, regardless. But I agree, Lead the Trey!
Andy (muesli64)

Joined: August 2009 (2308 votes)

Wednesday 3:01 PM
Yes. Spread them.