March 13, 2025
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| Total votes: 292 | |||||
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Joined: March 2016 (2151 votes) Thursday 3:08 AM
I see this as keeping the cards that work together and toss what do not. I can't see tossing two fives in the crib and holding 4 points to start. Rosemarie44 says: All came in to tell me I am another option is best. Rosemarie44 says: Rule: 55 to crib is worth a sacrifice in the hand of up to 4 points if retaining hand potential is for 12 points or more. This hand has a potential for 10 points. Am I looking at or interpreting this correctly here? Inushtuk1 says: Hi Rosemarie. You are correct; but we have to look at the pegging as well. Rosemarie44 says: Thank you.
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Joined: February 2009 (1624 votes) Thursday 3:34 AM
Keeping the 4 card run with the 2 fives in my own crib is not a bad way to start the game |
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Joined: April 2008 (6754 votes) Thursday 3:41 AM
Playing on in the pegging and the crib. One little ... two little face cards? dec |
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Joined: October 2008 (4416 votes) Thursday 3:42 AM
Three Cuts (333) would give us a Hand of Twenty Points if we hold the Double Run, but after Toss (5 5), many combinations of "X" Card Cuts combined with "X" Card Pone Discards will produce a Crib worth just as many points, and since we were not dealt any "X" Cards, this increases the odds of such an outcome. 🎲
Toss (2 3) is usually a great Dealer Discard, and here it would leave behind a respectable Hand, but Toss (2 3) is not so great that it can compete with Toss (5 5)! And the FLUSH with Toss (3 5), while it sounds nice, is both a weaker Hand and a weaker Crib than either the Double Run or the A-2-3-4 Run-of-Four. ☕ The A-2-3-4 Run-of-Four, while not worth as much as a Double Run, gets help from EVERY Cut Card, and it could peg better than the Double Run. And since Toss (5 5) is worth an average of nearly Nine Points in our Crib, we'll make up all of that difference that we lost with the weaker Hand when we see WHAT'S IN THE BOX! 🎁 Ras2829 says: No need for me to add anything other than "amen"!
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Joined: April 2011 (4416 votes) Thursday 3:50 AM
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Joined: February 2020 (1154 votes) Thursday 4:38 AM
Every cut improves this keep. I'll be past hole 8, could have a crib of biblical proportions |
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Joined: March 2008 (6070 votes) Thursday 4:45 AM
Trying it this way. No face cards means the 55 go into the crib. I hope the pone tossed me 10-K. feralba24 says: Go big 5d js |
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Joined: July 2020 (957 votes) Thursday 5:22 AM
Yay! I'm happy with this start. |
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Joined: March 2025 (20 votes) Thursday 5:25 AM
Looking to get off to a good start, hate to break up the double run Eolus619 says: welcome to DCH comments Score31…plz keep posting scottcrib says: Welcome! |
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Joined: February 2016 (155 votes) Thursday 5:37 AM
Myers discard book shows a2 toss as best. Will be interesting to see how much better A 2 toss is than the 55 assuming this holds up. So are there any other hands where dealer breaks up a double run to toss a 55 other than A55678, 255678, and 556789 per myers? superdow says: Note that with a234 hold, play 4 first
and hope for 32A run 10 4 10 3 2 1 Inushtuk1 says: Your keep makes perfect sense on Offense. But Defense says put those 5's in the Crib. Inushtuk1 says: Hi again superdow. i take it all back. The power of the (5-5) to our Crib, and better pegging of A-2-3-4 overcomes the lower Average Hand of A-2-3-4. A-2-3-4 pegs better on Offense, Defense or Optimal according to Ras. JQT says: Both the Hessel Discard Tool "DS" and the C. Liam Brown Site show that Toss (5 5) is best by nearly a Full Point, and neither of these sources use either the Pegging or any Positional Awareness in their calculations, so it's a bit surprising that "Cribbage Discards" by Anthony Myers lists Toss (A 2) as the preferred Dealer Discard, since as I understand it, this book is basically a printed list of the distilled charts or compilations of the calculations by RAS, Colvert, Hessel, and Schell. For example, Hessel's tool shows that Toss (5 5) yields a Hand of 8.13 Points and a Crib or 9.00 Points for a NET Total of 17.13 Points, while Toss (A 2) yields a Hand of 12.52 Points and a Crib or 3.82 Points for a NET Total of 16.34 Points, favoring Toss (5 5) by 0.79 Points. And the C. Liam Brown Site shows that Toss (5 5) yields a Hand of 8.13 Points and a Crib or 8.85 Points for a NET Total of 16.97 Points, while Toss (A 2) yields a Hand of 12.52 Points and a Crib or 3.67 Points for a NET Total of 16.21 Points, favoring Toss (5 5) by 0.76 Points (some of Liam's numbers are rounded while some are added with digits truncated, so the totals may be "off" by a few hundredths of a point). The HalscribCLX Program of course will take into account and compute both the Pegging and Positional Concerns before finally 'cranking out' (technical term) its final NET Total. 🍀 superdow says: Thanks for the detailed reply JQT. I'm looking at the Myers introduction to the 2022 edition and it indicates that the expected average shown in their tables does take into account average pegging. In this case, it appears that they just got it wrong with this hand. The into page xiii says this edition was updated to take into account 15 million cribbage hands based on "contemporary data." A footnote "8" is provided but I can't locate the content of the footnote. Hopefully they didn't update using "Cribbage Pro" data, which would be tainted by including data from the thousands of average and below average players that use that site. |
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Joined: August 2023 (67 votes) Thursday 5:38 AM
I’ve heard the rule to not break up double runs, which I generally follow. However, there are times time break the rules. Like now! Tossing 55 and hoping cut, good pegging, and pone toss make up for hand point difference. |
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Joined: January 2024 (399 votes) Thursday 6:03 AM
I like to play some defense during my first deal if practical. Keeping those 5's might help Pone peg. |
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Joined: July 2017 (593 votes) Thursday 6:31 AM
ooooh boy....on an island ....again. I love the 2,3 to my crib! A,2,3,4, gives us 10 in the hand (if we hit a decent cut card). Now, granted the 5,5, to our crib is very attractive but I chose this way and now I have to live with it. |
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Joined: November 2014 (3306 votes) Thursday 6:33 AM
Always looking for a way to put 5-5 in my crib. Hopefully my opponent tossed me T-K or other facecards |
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Joined: December 2023 (72 votes) Thursday 6:36 AM
Bring on the K-10 crib toss please! |
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Joined: June 2020 (1661 votes) Thursday 7:00 AM
I followed Ras’s sacrifice rule here & see some VERY good players are saying this is the 5% of the time it does not apply. “ A dealer may chose to sacrifice 4 points when discarding 5/5 if the remaining keep can cut to 12 points.” The A-2-3-4 run has previously appeared in a recent puzzle & I then used Colvert’s aversion to holding it as justification. Rob graciously took the time to explain the “why” of why holding that run was the best for that board position. So..now I am 0 for 2 in figuring out when it’s 5% and not 95%. 🤔
Eolus619 says: to be clear…A-2-3-4 can NOT cut to 12 ..thus my decision not to discard 5/5 ..but as is being pointed out ..above..the pegging potential of this 4 card run has merit. Eolus619 says: There are many reasons why dealer discarding 5/5 is the highest average crib.. as you can see, these Pone discards on Ras’s most frequent discards list are reasons why
K-10..K-9..A-Q..A-K..Q-7..Q-8..K-6..K-7.. |
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Joined: July 2016 (1754 votes) Thursday 7:03 AM
This is an exception to the Big Hand Rule. the answer to the first question is a resounding yes. The second answer is no. Doesn't matter. See my second comment insuperdow's post. Those who kept the Double run have 17 in their hand. We have a paltry 7 by comparison. But we have 8 minimum in the Crib, and maybe 20. And this is a safer pegger than 3-4-5-5. |
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Joined: March 2020 (1164 votes) Thursday 7:12 AM
This is my very favorite hand to hold, and I also chose to follow RAS' rule. I was also taught not to old this hand, unless I need it to peg out with.'
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Joined: December 2023 (194 votes) Thursday 8:05 AM
What a cut! I sure hope he threw paint in my crib! |
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Joined: June 2013 (4247 votes) Thursday 8:17 AM
I'll be Friday to Sgt Pegger's Crusoe. |
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Joined: August 2009 (2308 votes) Thursday 11:33 AM
A-2 is much the best compromise. Why risk wasting 5-5 in the crib which can sometimes go badly wrong. Early days. We can afford a small safety play. Difference a quarter of a point. But the 5-5 estimates are lopsidedly boosted by favourable throws by oppo and cut. fentesk says: I appreciate your point about 5-5 estimates and wanted to remind myself of the values. Ras's tracking (which has a good match to my extension of his values weighting for all possible discards) shows 5-5 to own crib scores 2-points ~2.4%, 8+ ~60.2%, and 12+ 20.8%. My extension gives 2-4 points ~8.2%. For comparison should any be interested, A-2 scores no points in own crib ~13.5%, 0-2 ~38.9%, 0-4 ~63.6%, 8+ ~13.8% and 12+ ~5.1%. With all of that I'm comfortable with the 5-5 discard today but won't argue with those that prefer that A-2. |
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Joined: February 2008 (5609 votes) Thursday 2:10 PM
At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
________________Pone's Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib_Total____W9 %____W10 % A-2-3-4_____8.13+(-2.20)+8.77=14.70____52.0____60.8 3-4-5-5____12.52+(-2.26)+3.67=13.93____49.2____60.1 A-4-5-5_____8.65+(-2.00)+6.46=13.11____45.7____55.4 Defense_______L9 %____L10 % A-2-3-4________27.9____16.6 3-4-5-5________25.7____16.7 A-4-5-5________28.6____20.7 A-2-3-4 is best for expected averages by 0.77pt. and is appreciably best for Win %s and a close second lowest for loss %s. So, I'll select the 5-5 to discard. After the 5 cut I'll play Defense to the lead. |
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Joined: January 2023 (789 votes) Thursday 2:33 PM
Many thanks for all your comments. |
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Joined: January 2019 (1169 votes) Thursday 2:52 PM
5 5 to my crib. I wish real life was like this. feralba24 says: Having a game with my best friend and him pone at 115 and me dealer at 104. Got dealt a dealers 30. Never got to count. To me real crib can be like this |
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