March 21, 2025

*** This hand was suggested by Eolus619
33-42*  ?
21%
21%
21%
21%
17%
17%
12%
12%
11%
11%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 293
Eolus619I need to hold back the dealer from advancing either via pegging or by balking the crib. I also need to get myself into position on 2nd street.For me there was no obvious right answer. So lets see what the voters and Hal say.
Rosemarie44

Joined: March 2016 (2152 votes)

Friday 3:09 AM
I see a poor hand with not a lot of potential for growth. Looked at tossing 2/9, 6/9 and A/2. IMO balk their crib with 2/9.
JQT says: I concur, since a 4 Card Cut that helps the Crib will be offset by helping us perhaps even more. Also, as of 7:30a ET, it seems that 6% have voted for Toss (2 3)! 🙄
Rosemarie44 says: Good! still enjoying Noraly when not on DCH.
JQT says: I think Noraly, who is about my son's age, could surpass three million subscribers by this summer! Are you still watching her "Itchy Boots" videos in order by seasons? I think it's okay to skip whole seasons, but I do recommend watching a specific season starting from the first episode through to the end. 🏍 👱🏻‍♀️ 🏍
Rosemarie44 says: I think I did skip some seasons but started with season 1, episode 1. I am on season 5 South Africa and skipped a few videos so far. The landscape is awesome, some content was not of interest to me. Enjoyi8ng Horaly. Thanks again.
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6755 votes)

Friday 3:43 AM
Probably not a popular choice I went with an A-2 balk and prefer a four or a six cut here. Three lead here. dec
mrob2199

Joined: February 2009 (1625 votes)

Friday 3:50 AM
Tough spot to be in Bruce-I think we have to take the chance today of keeping the run and discarding the dangerous 56- the good part of this equation is that if we get our cut of an A,2,or 3 it will not immediately help the 56 we discarded-if we don’t get our cut and dealer helped his crib we are obviously in big trouble but let’s go down playing aggressively here
Eolus619 says: Morning Rob..you and Colvert made the same choice..not surprising http://www.cribbageforum.com/Ask2008_01a.htmt
mfetchCT425

Joined: February 2009 (1559 votes)

Friday 3:54 AM
Agree with Rob. At this position, we need at least 10/11 holes to be viable in the next hand as dealer. Defensive discard here I think destroys our hand too much and limits our chances to get back into this game.
JQT

Joined: October 2008 (4417 votes)

Friday 4:20 AM
It's likely going to be a choice between (A 2 3 5), (2 3 5 6), or (A 3 5 6).

If we Keep (A 2 3 5), we give away Two Points with Toss (6 9) in order to hold Three Points that will always become Five Points or more; if we Keep (2 3 5 6), we DEFEND with Toss (A 9) but hold Zero Points that will always become Two Points or more; or, if we Keep (A 3 5 6), we also DEFEND in the Crib with Toss (2 9), but we hold just Two Points that will always become Four Points or more.

Let's Toss (2 9) today. After the 9 Card Cut, we now have Six Points in a Hand that can be tricky to count. Let's lead the 6 Card, since HALF of all 9 Cards can be accounted for, and if our 6 Card gets PAIRED, we can parry for (15-2) with our Trey. ☕ 🍨 🍒
Rosemarie44 says: Print is so small I missed my typos. Sorry.
JQT says: I have a 27-inch Ultra High Display sitting just two feet away from me, and yet I set the browser to zoom at 175% and that's with special glasses! 👓 😵 🥕
Inushtuk1 says: Hi John. First play out with A-3-5-6. I led the 6 on Offense. Dealer played a 3(9). I paired his 3. Maybe he's bluffing. No! He tripped for (15-8). Was I wrong? Should I have played the Ace or the 5?
JQT says: At the relative score of (33-42*) with Keep (Ac 3s 5d 6s) and Toss (2d 9h) and Cut = 9s, we don't want to compound our trouble, so after leading the 6 Card, I believe we should be careful with the Dealer's first response. This moment during the pegging is when the Dealer has the maximum or best chance to set a trap, such as by unloading or 'dumping' part of any PAIR. If we can 'play off' defensively with our Second Card Played as Pone in such scenarios, this will sometimes allow us to score that same PAIR later on anyway, when the Dealer thinks it is now SAFE to play the other Trey! And most of all, it will avoid us from falling into the Dealer's Trap! Notice that if the Dealer PAIRS a 6 Card Lead, we can use our Trey to score a SAFE(R) (15-2), since the most a Dealer could do after this is parry and play a Trey for only Two Points in return, and not Six Points. We certainly do want to peg, but we want to do so without surrendering an equal, or especially even more points in return to our Dealer Opponent at such a score. ☔
JQT says: But if the Dealer unloads a Trey on our 6 Card Lead, now we probably have no better DEFENSIVE play other than to PAIR it as you did! This is likely why Halscrib chose to lead the Trey instead of the 6 Card, but given a 6 Card Lead, you may have already chosen the best path forward in an awkward pegging situation. 🌼
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4248 votes)

Friday 4:49 AM
Hoping for the 3-2-6 combo to bring four points.
Score31

Joined: March 2025 (21 votes)

Friday 5:36 AM
Appreciating that I'm behind, but didn't want to give up that 5 - hoping for a double run / 10 cut.
The 9 cut helps a bit!
I would lead the 3 from my hand
Score31 says: Edit: I kept the A,2,3,5
wasa

Joined: November 2014 (3307 votes)

Friday 5:46 AM
I like the four card 15
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (6071 votes)

Friday 6:17 AM
Hedging
Eolus619

Joined: June 2020 (1662 votes)

Friday 6:46 AM
This puzzle is one of the more interesting ones I have found ( and studied) on the now defunct cribbage forum. It is from Ask the expert .. Jan. 2008. The “expert” choices were varied , their explanations are very insightful…particularly Mike Schell’s JQT like deep dive analysis. I am fortunate to be able to play tournament cribbage this weekend. Good card luck to all who also have the chance to play “live” somewhere. And a thank you to all the TD’s who make these events possible. .Open the link and enjoy the read
http://www.cribbageforum.com/Ask2008_01a.htm
Rosemarie44 says: Good luck Bruce this weekend. Thanks for a challenging hand today.
Eolus619 says: Thanks RM..🤞💥
JCMO says: Thanks for the link and checked it out. Responses are indeed varied. They include several who support discarding 5-6(like I would). It's not an easy hand to decide on.
JQT says: Playing Style is very much an element of Cribbage, and I think that what's worth noting is that none of those who chose Toss (5 6) are "new" or "weak" players. This calculation and choice is therefore being taken by some very strong players who have probably been in identical or similar situations a great number of times. Alas, the program reveals only about a Half-Point difference among the Top Three choices, which I believe invites three different "styles" today.
Assman

Joined: May 2024 (337 votes)

Friday 6:53 AM
Yikes. I like it this way.
Inushtuk1

Joined: July 2016 (1755 votes)

Friday 7:11 AM
I submitted this puzzle in late 2023, and learned that this was the way to go on Offense. With that 9 cut I'm kind of glad I did't toss the (5-6). Lead the 6, and keeping either the A-3, or the 3-5 intact; depending on Dealer's response.
Inushtuk1 says: For those who chose A-2-3-5; good luck with the pegging. You might peg 4; but you might give up a bundle as well.
Eolus619 says: Hi Mike..i had no way of knowing you had previously submitted this ..sorry for the redo..but perhaps enough time and new voters make it still worthwhile
Inushtuk1 says: Np Bruce. It was a good insructional puzzle then; or so said Ras; and so it remains today.
MarktheShark

Joined: January 2024 (400 votes)

Friday 7:31 AM
Confused by Eolus619's comments, since positional holes are 34-44* assuming I was first Dealer. 2-9 seems the obvious pitch; notice your 4-card 15. 6-9 as a second choice. Much too early to desperately pitch the 5-6 or even the 2-3 ... such pitches tend to compound your positional inadequacies. Will view Ask2008_01a.
Eolus619 says: Hello Mark..not sure about how you determine your positional holes. I use Ras’s CPZs..so 2nd street is 39-44..you can open the link & see how Shell determines the +/- ….always enjoy your insight …http://www.cribbageforum.com/Ask2008_01a.htm
MarktheShark says: "Positional holes" (Michael Schell and others) and "critical positional zones" (Ras) are two different ways to look at essentially the same thing. Use whichever is easier for you to understand. With First Dealer's first positional hole that he is trying to reach at 08, First Pone's first positional hole is at 18 (First Pone has a great disadvantage and often needs to gain holes quickly, sometimes desperately, at game start). So, dealing from 0*-0, you are trying to get to hole 08 to stay in position and go out on the 10th hand ("26 Theory") as Pone, if you do not make it out dealing on the 9th. Add the standard 10-count (Pone) and 16-count (Dealer) as you move down the board past 08 to maintain your position ... those are your and your opponent's "positional holes". You can either work with 08-18* and add the standard counts or you can remember all Ras's zone numbers. Ras's CPZ tells us that if you are short of the positional hole, you have less of a chance of winning; if beyond, you have more of a chance of winning ... positional holes tell you the same thing ... you should try to reach them or prevent your opponent from reaching theirs.
MarktheShark says: Read Schell's comments in that article. For this particular board position, you are Pone at hole 33. You are 1 hole short of your positional hole of 34 (08+26). You want to be at 44 (34+10) after this hand is complete. Dealer is at hole 42. He is 2 holes short of his positional hole of 44 (18+26). He wants to be at 60 (44+16) after this hand is complete. You do not have the cards to reach 44 unless you risk being desperate, which some commenters risked.
MarktheShark says: To avoid going through the numerical reasoning, you can simplify everything and say you want to deal from 18, 44, 70, 96 (your positional holes).
MarktheShark says: Bruce, the 39-44 CPZ you mention seems off to me, but it might be correct. I do not bother to memorize Ras's numbers, because they are a simple extension of the standard positional holes we use. Should his CPZ be 43-47 instead of 39-44? That would confirm 44 as my next positional hole. For example, I know the next two are 69-73 and 95-99, where I would use 70 and 96 respectively. If you can remember the CPZ 43-47 range instead of the 44 positional hole (or perhaps 43 per Ras, based on starting at 17 rather than 18), then fine ... but I think a single number is easier to remember than a five-number range.
Falseclaimofgame_

Joined: February 2023 (86 votes)

Friday 7:38 AM
A lot going on with this hand, and none of it good.

Opted for some defense with enough cuts to salvage things.
JCMO

Joined: June 2023 (124 votes)

Friday 10:43 AM
Hi, everyone! I'm considering discarding 5-6, to retain 123-9. My justification being I want to reach 44 if possible, as dealer, for the next round. Even if I have to allow opp to make some points off that 5-6 in his crib. Maybe I'm too much of a risk taker?

Plus, what has happened to Courdelion? Missing for some time now. I hope he's OK.
Eolus619 says: 💥💥. JCMO reappears 👏👏.yea….welcome back
JCMO says: Thank you! But now I would like the forum opinion on discarding 5-6.....
JCMO says: Plus an update on Courdelion...
Eolus619 says: no idea on the why no Courdelion..sorry..here is the forum link.. see the different choices made http://www.cribbageforum.com/Ask2008_01a.htm
JCMO says: Yeah, already checked the link(You posted it in your own response) Interesting!
JQT says: Coeurdelion (COEUR DE LION, note spelling) has been very generous over the many years and decades, posting his own independent ideas, as well as deciphering and posting those of HalscribCLX each day, or most days. I have not spoken with him recently, but since the program's data are still being transcribed and posted, my guess is that he is taking a well-earned break from the effort of doing dual-duty. Or maybe the new American Tariffs caught him unawares and off guard, who can be sure?! 🍁 👑 📍
JCMO says: Thank you, JQT. Maybe he will return in time. What is your opinion on discarding 5-6 at this moment, in this hand? I suspect there are arguments "pro and con" With you in the "con" side, lol
JQT says: Playing our own position as Pone FIRST, our Maximum Hand would occur after Keep (A 2 3 9) and Toss (5 6), and that would be Fourteen Points after Three Cuts (333), which would occur 3/46 equals 0.065 or only about 6.5% of the time. We can also score Eight Points or more after Seventeen Cuts (AAA, 2222, 333, 4444, 999). At Hole 33, it's almost worth the risk to score greater than Ten Points, as this would put us back on track, since our "target" is to become Next Dealer at Hole 44 or beyond. However, our Opponent is the Dealer sitting just Two Holes 'shy' of the Second Street Par Hole 44, so this also gives us a very strong reason for DEFENSE. Therefore, we could also Keep (A 3 5 6) and Toss (2 9), and now we have a chance for a Maximum Hand of Eight Points after Seven Cuts (4444, 666), which would occur 7/46 equals 0.152 which is over 15% of the time. When Pone's average pegging of Two Points is added to this, it gets us to Hole 43 or beyond after Toss (2 9) almost three times as often as we might obtain after the very risky Toss (5 6). In summary: Offense seems attractive yet unwarranted here. Since we are only just getting a toe-hold on Second Street, I see no burning need to go with an OFFENSIVE posture with Toss (5 6) here, and I am more willing to try to 'level the playing field' and do so over the course of a few deals, as opposed to trying to "fix it" all at once during this deal. Still, Toss (5 6) is not what I would consider a mistake; I simply feel that the risk-to-reward ratio is too high for Toss (5 6) at this early juncture of the game. 🌷
JQT says: The last clause of the third-to-last sentence should read: "...almost three times as often as we might obtain those Fourteen Points after the very risky Toss (5 6)."
JCMO says: Thank you! I tend to be aggressive in my play. Sometimes I get burned, but more usually I gain by doing so. Thanks for reminding me to consider just how OFTEN we reach certain points on the board, when making a certain discard.
domandcarol

Joined: August 2023 (68 votes)

Friday 12:53 PM
I never know how to play out bad hands. Went with 6-2 toss. Thought leaves me with something in hand and maybe holds off crib a bit.
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5610 votes)

Friday 1:35 PM
At 33-42* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Dlr's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib____Total_____W6 %___W7 %
A-3-5-6____5.46+(-2.80)+(-4.36)=(-1.70)___12.4___22.9
A-2-3-5____6.89+(-2.78)+(-5.97)=(-1.86)___15.0___23.0
A-2-3-9____7.98+(-2.67)+(-7.54)=(-2.23)___16.7___22.5
3-5-6-9____4.96+(-2.80)+(-4.46)=(-2.30)___11.1___21.4

Defense_____L6 %____L7 %
A-3-5-6______39.3____60.6
A-2-3-5______46.0____62.5
A-2-3-9______49.6____64.0
3-5-6-9______39.3____62.2

A-3-5-6 is best for expected averages by 0.16pt. and although it's only third best for Win %s, it is lowest for Loss %s. So, I'll select the 2-9 to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll lead the 3 and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead___________Net Pegging Points
3_____________________(-0.40)
6_____________________(-0.48)
A_____________________(-0.67)
5_____________________(-1.73)
Eolus619 says: OK..16 years later Hal still picks the same discard!!
Eolus619 says: http://www.cribbageforum.com/Ask2008_01a.htm
Djgoat

Joined: December 2023 (195 votes)

Friday 11:29 PM
Gonna take the chance here and hope for a 12 cut but we didn't get it. Hopefully they didn't throw paint!
RubyTuesday

Joined: January 2019 (1170 votes)

Saturday 12:18 AM
2 9 to dealer’s crib from a horrid hand.