March 22, 2025

*** This hand was suggested by JQT
67*-80  ?
52%
52%
28%
28%
17%
17%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 272
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6755 votes)

Saturday 3:21 AM
Need a hit in either or both. Might need to play some D in the pegging. dec
Rosemarie44

Joined: March 2016 (2152 votes)

Saturday 3:39 AM
I agree with dec's reasoning and holding 5 points in the hand and two points in the crib to start. Got to say I looked long and hard at holding 2-6-7-8 for 7 points.
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (6071 votes)

Saturday 4:01 AM
Trying it this way.
Rosemarie44 says: I liked the two card eleven here.
HfxKen

Joined: February 2020 (1155 votes)

Saturday 4:25 AM
I usually try to stash 2-3 in my crib whenever possible. They usually find more friends than 7-8.
I've got a 4-7 eleven and possibilities to trap a 5
glmccuskey

Joined: April 2011 (4417 votes)

Saturday 4:46 AM
Jazzselke

Joined: March 2009 (2798 votes)

Saturday 5:06 AM
Close call, but the 4 seems awkward with 678,other than the Magic 11.
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4248 votes)

Saturday 5:43 AM
There are a few good options here. When in doubt, go with 2-3.

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22nd Mar 2025
๐Ÿ†Score: 121 to 109
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domandcarol

Joined: August 2023 (68 votes)

Saturday 5:44 AM
5 in hand, cards for pegging, plus help with starter and giving crib 2points from touchers, that may bring more, looked like a good way to go.
Inushtuk1

Joined: July 2016 (1755 votes)

Saturday 7:13 AM
No matter the strategy I feel that 2-3-4-6(7-8) is best to include average hand, plus Crib, plus, or minus, or net pegs, as the case may be. Pone is +20; we are -3. Offense to the lead. I'm afraid I will have to pair any 2, 3, or 4 lead here. I'm that desperate. Hopefully Pone leads the 3 ,and if he trips, I recoup 2 points with my 6. Giving up 6 to get 4 is probably worth it here. On an A lead dump the 6, keeping 2-3-4 intact. I'm desperate enough to pair a 6 lead here. A 7/8 lead I will dump my deuce, keeping 3-4-6 intact to trap a lone 5. A 9 lead gets the 6 of course, and any X-Card lead gets my 6. If I see another X-Card for a count of (26), my 2-3 may get me a (31-2). It's important not to automatically play the 4 trying to bump the count up as high as possible here. Risk the 3 for a count of (29).
Assman

Joined: May 2024 (337 votes)

Saturday 8:38 AM
Smaller cards are better peggers and I donโ€™t mind sending middle cards into the mix.
MarktheShark

Joined: January 2024 (400 votes)

Saturday 8:45 AM
We are short of our positional hole, 70, so we need to be aggressive to catch up.
RubyTuesday

Joined: January 2019 (1170 votes)

Saturday 8:50 AM
Today I wanted 7 8 in my crib rather than 2 3 because I liked the look of what was left in my hand better.
Score31

Joined: March 2025 (21 votes)

Saturday 9:32 AM
2-3 to the crib, figuring can't go wrong with that
Liked keeping the 678 run in my hand, hoping for a 7,8,9 cut that would help the run score and create a 15 - trying to go big seeing I'm too far behind to play safe
JQT

Joined: October 2008 (4417 votes)

Saturday 9:35 AM
We can immediately see that two of those three of what I have dubbed "Discard Cousins" i.e., Toss (3 4), Toss (6 7), and Toss (J Q), namely those discards that begin with Zero Points and yet have a Crib Value that exceeds that of many High PAIRS, including Toss (K K), Toss (Q Q), and even Toss (T T), are available to us today. ๐ŸŒฑ

But we also have two perhaps superior ideas with either Toss (2 3) or Toss (7 8), which are at least Two Points stronger in our Crib, and so I am curious about the similarities and the differences between Dealer Discards Toss (2 3) and Toss (7 8), which led to the composition of this puzzle. ๐Ÿงฉ

Specifically, while (4 6 7 8) has a Minimum Hand of Five Points after Sixteen Cuts (TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK), which will occur 16/46 equals 0.348 or nearly 35% of the time; (2 3 4 6) incurs a Minimum Hand of Six Points after just Four Cuts (AAAA), which will occur 4/46 equals 0.087 or only about 9% of the time. The former has a two card Magic Eleven of 4-7, while the latter has a three-card Magic Eleven of 2-3-6. ๐Ÿคน๐Ÿปโ€โ™‚๏ธ

And yet, even though we have been dealt no "X" Cards, the Crib Value of Toss (2 3) only exceeds that of Toss (7 8) by maybe a HALF or Three-Fourths of a Single Point. Thus, I would guess that Toss (7 8) is the better choice today. ๐Ÿง

Extra credit goes to those who further examine some of the various attributes of the Pegging Phase for each candidate Hand. ๐Ÿ• ๐Ÿฅค ๐Ÿ
Inushtuk1 says: hi John. If you get a chance see my question I posed to you late last night.
Inushtuk1 says: In your post btw.
JQT says: Okay, I posted my answer, which I'll repeat here as well: At the relative score of (33-42*) with Keep (Ac 3s 5d 6s) and Toss (2d 9h) and Cut = 9s, we don't want to compound our trouble, so after leading the 6 Card, I believe we should be careful with the Dealer's first response. This moment during the pegging is when the Dealer has the maximum or best chance to set a trap, such as by unloading or 'dumping' part of any PAIR. If we can 'play off' defensively with our Second Card Played as Pone in such scenarios, this will sometimes allow us to score that same PAIR later on anyway, when the Dealer thinks it is now SAFE to play the other Trey! And most of all, it will avoid us from falling into the Dealer's Trap! Notice that if the Dealer PAIRS a 6 Card Lead, we can use our Trey to score a SAFE(R) (15-2), since the most a Dealer could do after this is parry and play a Trey for only Two Points in return, and not Six Points. We certainly do want to peg, but we want to do so without surrendering an equal, or especially even more points in return to our Dealer Opponent at such a score. โ˜”
JQT says: But if the Dealer unloads a Trey on our 6 Card Lead, now we probably have no better DEFENSIVE play other than to PAIR it as you did! This is likely why Halscrib chose to lead the Trey instead of the 6 Card, but given a 6 Card Lead, you may have already chosen the best path forward in an awkward pegging situation. ๐ŸŒผ
Inushtuk1 says: Thanks John.
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5610 votes)

Saturday 12:28 PM
At 67*-80 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W3 %___W4 %
2-3-4-6____8.50+3.72+6.41=18.63____9.2____29.0
4-6-7-8____7.54+3.48+6.86=17.88____7.8____28.7
2-6-7-8____9.46+3.26+4.39=17.11____7.6____27.5

Offense_______L3 %___L4 %
2-3-4-6________29.0___59.4
4-6-7-8________26.2___58.9
2-6-7-8________25.0___59.5

2-3-4-6 is best for expected averages by 0.75pt. and is slightly best for Win %s. Although it is the worst for Loss %s I'll still select the 7-8 to discard.

After the K cut I'll play Offense to the lead.