Sunday 3:14 AM

More cuts for improvement vs. holding 4669.

Sunday 3:40 AM

I realize A668 has a little more chance for improvement than my hold but I’m going to hold the 6 point hand with the best defensive option here-discarding the A8 while holding 2 sixes seems pretty safe-I have the 664 for the potential 5 trap and even if the cut and pegging provides no help whatsoever I’m still at 94 which isn’t too far off position

Sunday 4:00 AM

Seems obvious to me today, so it'll probably prove that it's not. I lead the 6 to leave me the "out" of the A.

Sunday 4:06 AM

Sunday 4:18 AM

Trying to halt the opponent here and was rewarded.

Sunday 4:26 AM

A 2 3 6 7 8 those are my reasons. dec

Sunday 5:04 AM

Sunday 5:56 AM

Briefly considered throwing 4-9 since it’s a fantastic defensive throw. But A-8 to their crib while holding two crucial outs is too good to pass up.

Sunday 6:05 AM

I'll lead a 6 from the 6-6-4 combo.

Sunday 6:50 AM

Better chance of getting help and hopefully slowing crib

Sunday 6:58 AM

Well now I don't believe I've seen this one before; with, or without the flush. A-6-6-8 gives us the best chance to reach 96. And (4-9) has a lower static average than (A-8) if I'm not mistaken, according to both Ras, and Schell's discard averages. It will be interesting to hear JQT's, and Halscrib's analysis on how much better holding the 4-6-6 is. After all Dealer won't always oblige us with an X-Card response to that 6 lead. They always seem to dump a 9 on my 6 lead. Then again, I was dealt one.

Sunday 7:19 AM

We are once again trailing as Pone, and while it's only by Three Points, this time we are burgeoning onto Fourth Street. It is important that we study carefully the differences between Friday's Puzzle, when we were Pone at (33-42*), and this one, as those differences are significant and numerous. On Friday, Eolus619 had us "between a rock and a not-so-pleasant place" but although we were "Behind and NOT Dealing," trailing the Dealer by Nine Holes, at least we were not faced with an Opponent already barking up Fourth Street! Today, while we only trail by Three Holes, we have a lot less "Real Estate" that remains between us and a Big Fat LOSS of a Game! But there's no need to despair, and we'll examine why. 🤔 🎯 🎭

Let's note that while our Illustrious Challenger is the Current Dealer and is ahead of us, and probably has that loathsome and reprehensible smirk on that face we simply refuse to look at, our Pathetic Opponent is also about One Full Rack or Five Holes 'shy' of the coveted Fourth Street Par Hole 96, which means that the odds that our Opponent can go out as the Next Non Dealer or "Pone" and WIN two deals from now with First Hand Show are actually LESS THAN 50%. And we want very much to keep it that way!

This all translates into the fact that if we can just hold our Opponent "short," and if we can tally both our Hand and Crib at the completion of the Next Deal, and then become Pone while enjoying First Hand Show two deals hence, that all we need do is log Thirty-Three Points over the course of this deal and the "cycle" of two deals that we hope shall follow!

According to Colvert's Twenty-Six Theory of Cribbage, after we accumulate Ten Holes as Pone (our average) by completion of This Deal, plus those Twenty-Six Holes during the "cycle" that follows (and which therefore all 'adds up' to Thirty-Six Holes) that what this specifically tells us is that we can actually under-perform by Three Holes between now and the end of the game, and still possibly prevail: as long as we can "throw a Monkey Wrench" the size of a small monkey (or a large chainsaw) into our Opponent's hopes and dreams and aspirations, and I say we prime our motor, set the choke to "START," and pull on that starter-rope a few times like our very life depended upon it, and so let's 'get buzzing' and give it a go! 💣 🧯 🧨

We were dealt a FLUSH and a Double Run, so let's keep'em both, right?! (I'm just seein' if you're payin' attention, because many of you tend to drift off at about this stage, like it's somehow MY fault!) We have what "could become" a Double Run, but right now, we have to choose between that FLUSH, and the (A 6 6 8) "Matching Card Wonder," and what "could become" in the form of (6 6 8 9), and these are all currently worth Six Points, no more, no less. Well, it seems that we didn't find ONE solution; we found THREE solutions! 🧪 🍺 💊

"More" is NOT always better, and "Less" is often NOT more, folks, and we can all learn an important lesson from the clever epitaph of that Infamous Cowboy, Mr. Moore, who is buried at Boot Hill Cemetery in Tombstone, Arizona which reads:

"Here lies
Lester Moore,
Four slugs
from a .44,
No Les No More."

I'm not even sure what the lesson is here, or whether it has anything whatsoever to do with Cribbage, but I'll wager that even Old Lester got this discard correct. And if somehow you don't get this Discard Choice correct, well, maybe Cribbage is not your "thing"! Maybe take a stab at Pinochle?

We want to figure out this puzzle and get it right today, because we might take away another bit of wisdom from another epitaph about George Johnson, as apparently, even getting it right may not save us! 💢 💫 💢

"Here lies George Johnson
Hanged by Mistake
1882
He Was Right
WE
WAS WRONG
But we Strung Him UP
And Now He's GONE."

We cannot be certain that this was the result of him finding the correct DISCARD in a heated game of Cribbage among a not-so-friendly crowd, but we don't know that this was NOT the case, either. But regardless, let's get back to our puzzle.

We already calculated that we can "stay on track" and reach our "target" if we can negotiate our way forward about Eight Holes, and reach the Fourth Street Par Hole 96 by completion of this deal. Since Pone tends to tally an Average Pegging Score of about Two Holes, a Hand Score of Six Points is what we need as our Absolute Minimum. Therefore, if we can meet our own very modest and not-too-overly-ambitious goal as Pone, it should be obvious that what matters most here is to impede the movement of our Opponent as much as possible via our Discard Decision and our Pegging!

The fact that we have this "Wiggle Room" on our side of the board must be understood in order to approach this puzzle properly, because there are actually FIVE ways to begin with Six Points here, and not just THREE! We also have both (A 6 6 9) and (4 6 6 9) to consider, and yet the "pull" to gravitate towards the FANCY-FLUSH, or the EYE-CANDY of the Potential-Double-Run, or the Cut-a-Matching-Card for a Dozen Points of (A 6 6 8), means that it's extremely easy to not see our requirements clearly and thus we might overlook the possibilities of these two additional, seemingly-inferior ideas that involve a "likely-lesser" way of holding 6-6-9! Little things often matter in Cribbage, and we cannot ignore them.

If we forget that we have this "Wiggle Room" or worse, if we never identify its existence in the first place, it's likely that we won't even examine these alternative ideas. Let's look at Crib Values in descending order for a moment: Toss (6 6) has a Crib Value of 7.08 Points; Toss (A 4) has a Crib Value of 5.72 Points; Toss (4 8) has a Crib Value of 4.94 Points; Toss (A 8) has a Crib Value of 4.85 Points; and Toss (4 9) has a Crib Value of 4.68 Points; (all values, Thanks Michael Schell. Born in Waco, Texas, you can bet he's aware of the fate of Lester Moore!).

We CANNOT Toss (6 6), as any PAIR is an immediate Two Points in the Enemy Crib, and we mustn't Toss (A 4), as it 'adds up' to FIVE and that spells "Disaster" any way we slice it. In addition, if we 'steer clear' of those two possible Train Wreck Ideas that 'stick us' with a Lone Ace, namely (A 6 6 8) and (A 6 6 9), that leaves us with just one glaring, shiny morsel upon our dinner plate, and it's sitting there in plain sight, glaring back at us on this Penultimate Sunday in March: We're gonna Keep (4 6 6 9)! See how EASY that was?! 🏆

Let's Toss (A 8) today, as it allows us to hold a Hand that should average Eight Points, and more importantly, it should permit us to DEFEND during the pegging, and the 'Cherry on Top' is that it also 'chimes in' with a Crib Value that is solidly below Five Points. 🍒 🍨 🍒

After the Ace of Diamonds Cut, we still have our feeble Six Points, and while we may worry what this Ace Cut will do to our Toss (A 8) in the Opposing Crib, any alternative idea either involved unleashing a 4 Card over the board, or it involved us throwing the PAIR of Toss (6 6), and even if we KNEW an Ace Cut would occur, Toss (A 8) is probably our most DEFENSIVE discard ANYWAY.

There's absolutely no doubt that we are leading a 6 Card from our Red PAIR today, as this is the only Lead Card that leaves us holding a Maximum Variety. It would be a mistake to lead the 4 Card, as the Dealer might respond with a 7 Card or 8 Card, placing us in a quandary of our own making.

After we lead a 6 Card from our PAIR, if the Dealer plays a(n):

. . . Ace, we'll respond with our 9 Card, making it awkward for the Dealer to now unload any 5 Card(s). And, if the Dealer can PAIR our 9 Card, we have our 6 Card 'at the ready' to grab (31-2);

. . . Deuce, let's steer clear of trouble and put down our 9 Card;

. . . Trey, we can respond with our remaining 6 Card and score (15-2);

. . . 4 Card, I believe we held our 9 Card for just this reason, so let's put it to good use;

. . . 5 Card, why not play our 4 Card and grab the (15-5)? I think some players would want to refrain here, however, because getting Five Points by giving back Four Points might not be a path we want to be on, and rest assured, the Dealer probably has the Four-Card-Run secured on BOTH ENDS, and yet it's likely dangerous for BOTH players to KEEP . . . DIGGING . . . DEEPER;

. . . 6 Card, let's JUMP ON IT with our other 6 Card, for (18-6);

. . . 7 Card, this is where we earn the Big Bucks, as it's a difficult jam we're in now: a 4 Card Response risks a 5 Card Reply by the Dealer, and a 6 Card Response invites either a 5 Card or an 8 Card Reply, so what to do?! I think we need to rely upon the odds and 'plunk down' our 9 Card, and Dare the Dealer to have an 8 Card, which probably should have been used upon seeing our 6 Card Lead, but my-oh-my, we may be witnessing a very clever Dealer, working us over!

. . . 8 Card, we'll try to 'duck & dodge' and respond with our 4 Card, and if the Dealer now PAIRS our 4 Card, we can play our 9 Card for (31-2). And beware, as with a solitary remaining 4, 5, or in this actual case, a Sole 6 Card, against a Dealer who leads in a two-on-one (card) situation, it's always possible for us to capitulate to a Dealer who absconds after scoring a 4-5-6 Run against us for Six (unanswered) Points to wrap up the pegging;

. . . 9 Card, (cheer up, we're almost done, folks!) we'll gladly respond with our 9 Card and take the PAIR with reasonable SAFETY at (24-2);

. . . "X" Card, let's respond with our remaining 6 Card. If the Dealer has (5 X X X) or (5 5 X X), we shall now peg a Run-of-Three of 4-5-6 for (31-5) and an easy, unanswered Five Points, and we'll likely out-peg the Dealer by a Five-to-One margin, unless our 9 Card gets trapped by a Ten "T" Card and a Jack, which is a distinct possibility, when we would still out-peg the Dealer, but now only by a Five-to-Four margin. Oh, the Humanity! Okay, that's it for me for at least a few days; my next few puzzles will appear in . . . less than one week, actually! Hanging's probably too good for me. 🧩 🍷 🏺

Have you heard Harry Chapin singing his 1972 hit, "Taxi"? I think we all have heard it, even those who were born after his rather short time on Earth. Can you believe they actually used to play this nearly-seven-minute ballad on the AM radio, over half a century ago? 📻 🚖 🚕

Okay, well, have you heard the even-longer "Sequel Version" of Taxi that Harry performed in Hamilton, Ontario in January 1980, the year before he tragically died at the all-too-young-age of thirty-eight? I was living 'Out West' (with Lester and George!) in 1980, and that was just before the U.S. Hockey team defeated the Soviet Union in what was called the "Miracle on Ice," as I plowed my way North through Colorado on my way from New Mexico to Idaho early that year. 🏒 🥅 🌄

But I was actually born and now once again reside near Niagara Falls, which is very close to Hamilton, less than an hour's drive; in fact, the last time my son traveled from Washington State to see me, he flew on the now-defunct "Swoop" Airlines from Abbotsford, BC to Hamilton, Ontario, and he saved so much by using Canadian airports and Canadian airlines that it entirely paid for the rental car! But Swoop, which began in 2018 and was owned by WestJet, was fully acquired by them in 2023. (And now the U.S. wants to acquire . . . O CANADA!) 🍁

Harry Chapin "All 14 minutes of Taxi & Sequel"
https://youtu.be/aeMX1JfqKuc

Here is a very hard-fought Endgame Battle starting out with today's puzzle and position, in which I got very close to toppling Rex Cribbage, but I came up Three Holes "short." I think I squeezed it for all I could, but who knows: maybe I could have squeezed it a little bit harder! 🍋

(88-91*) (4s 6h 6d 9s) (As 8s) vs (2s 3c 4h 8h) (5c Th) 2d

6 (6) 8 (14) 4 (18) 4 (22=2) 9 (31-2), 3 (3) 6 (9) 2 (11=1), (90-94).

Pone = 8, Dealer = 12, Crib = 4, (98-110).

(98*-110) (3d 3c 5s 9d) (6d Kd) vs (Ad 2s 6s 7h) (Jc Ks) 6h

3 (3) 6 (9) 9 (18) 7 (25) 5 (30) A (31=2), 3 (3) 2 (5=1), (101-110).

Pone = 6, Dealer = 8, Crib = 4, (113-116).

(113-116*) (4c Jc Qd Kd) (2c 6d) vs (Ad 2s 5c 9s) (2d 5s) 4h

J (10) 2 (12) Q (22) 9 (31=2), 4 (4) 5 (9) K (19) A (20=1), (113-119).

Pone = 5, Dealer = 4, Crib = 4, (118-121).

* * * 🌼 🥀 🌻 * * * 🌼 🥀 🌻 * * * 🌼 🥀 🌻 * * *

Let's try this one more time! Brace yourself, REX!

(88-91*) (4s 6h 6d 9s) (As 8s) vs (Ac 3c 9c Tc) (5h 9h) 8h

6 (6) 9 (15=2) 9 (24-2) 3 (27) 4 (31-2), A (1) 6 (7) T (17=1), (92-94).

Pone = 6, Dealer = 7, Crib = 4, (98-105).

(98*-105) (4h 8s 8c 9d) (Ac Qd) vs (7s Td Js Jh) (Ah Ad) As

8 (8) 7 (15=2) 9 (24-3) "go" 4 (28-1), J (10) 8 (18) J (28=1), T (10=1), (102-109).

Pone = 2, Dealer = 3, Crib = 12, (117-111).

(117-111*) (2s 5h 8h Qs) (3s 9d) vs (4d 5d 6d 6c) (8c Td) 9h

2 (2) 6 (8) Q (18) 5 (23) 5! (28-3), 4 (4) 8 (12) 6 (18=1), (120-112).

Pone = 4, Dealer = 16, Crib = 8, (121-112). See, it wasn't that difficult! 🥃 🌵 🥧

Sunday 7:31 AM

Oh dear I missed the flush again, but it wouldn’t have changed my 4 9 throw to dealer’s crib.

Sunday 8:12 AM

The A-8 pitch allows you to keep a hand with more potential to grow, but the 4-9 pitch is a slightly better balk and keeps a better hand value. I am in position and Dealer is short, so the 4-9 pitch is obvious to me. (Positional holes are 86-96*.) After the A cut, I am in very good position and will peg defensively.

Sunday 3:54 PM

Straight forward for me today

Monday 2:15 AM

At 88-91* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib___Total______W2 %____W3 %
A-6-6-8____8.35+(-2.85)+(-4.35)= 1.15____12.4____45.3
4-6-6-9____8.00+(-2.67)+(-4.26)= 1.07____14.9____50.9
A-6-6-9____7.57+(-2.78)+(-4.59)= 0.20_____9,3____45.2
6-6-8-9____8.35+(-2.63)+(-6.04)=(-0.32)___14.2____44.4
A-4-8-9____7.11+(-2.41)+(-6.36)=(-1.66)____9,6____41.5
A-6-8-9____6.00+(-2.87)+(-4.93)=(-1.80)____6.4____36.8

Defense_______L2 %____L3 %
A-6-6-8________19.2____45.3
4-6-6-9________18.8____37.9
A-6-6-9________20.3____44.9
6-6-8-9________26.4____45.9
A-4-8-9________29.4____50.0
A-6-8-9________24.5____53.6

A-6-6-8 is best for expected averages by 0.08pt. but 4-6-6-9 is considerably best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So, as we're in a critical board position, I'll decide based on Win/Loss %s and select A-8 to discard.

After the A cut I'll lead a 6 and play Defense:

Lead________Dealer's Pegging Points
6_________________(-2.03)
4_________________(-2.26)
9_________________(-2.39)