Friday 3:30 AM

I want to go out if my opponent doesn’t, otherwise I could be stuck leading into them next hand.

Friday 3:41 AM

Ditto.

Friday 3:48 AM

Spread 'em out, eliminate the 5 trap and pray

Friday 3:55 AM

This hold should be enough to garner the 13 points and it’s flexible enough to peg defensively-I would play my 4 on a 7 lead

Friday 4:27 AM

This hand also improves by at least 2 points on any cut.

Friday 4:58 AM

Not sure which is the best option from these. A456 performs well as Pone, so I'll give it a chance here.
Two fives, 6-5 eleven, and even 6-5-4-A sixteen, are all things in the, "plus column".

Cribbage Pro Scrimmage
11th Apr 2025
🏆Score: 121 to 103
🌋SP: 1700
📅Streak: 13
https://www.cribbagepro.net/scrimmage/454/3333658/1

Friday 5:11 AM

Was concerned about a 6 lead so kept it this way. We have the defensive 5-6 magic 11 and if pone doesn’t go out, we should have enough on our end with pegs/hand/crib.

Friday 5:22 AM

I like the 3-5 toss here. We have to peg defensively, so I want to rid myself of the 5 and keep a good spread of cards. According to Discard Pro, this keep will also get us to at least 120 points 97% of the time.

Friday 5:29 AM

Nice puzzle. No escape card. Thought about 3456 and pegging, but opted for A456 with the Ace as the escape card, and good luck with that strategy. Play off if possible.

Friday 5:29 AM

Keeping the flush this way. We have 6-5 and 6-4-A for 11s and spread out crib toss

Friday 5:44 AM

Thanks all :) SUrprised how many held the 8. Am off to my CD partner's tourney in IL .The jazzman :)

Friday 5:50 AM

Nothing up my sleeze except my escape cards. I could thrown the five in the crib and count both hands ( mine and my opponents ) and played off that. This is easier. Playoff if you can ! dec

Friday 6:07 AM

Didn’t want the 5 in my hand. Liked this spread best balancing point potential and pegging options.

Friday 6:57 AM

We've gotta peg defensively and pray.

But I also need to assure we go out this hand. A468 has 9 guaranteed. I need 13. I have one guaranteed in pegging as dealer. So 3 more.

A456 only doesn't score 3 more on a cut card between hand and crib on an A or 2. But the 2H puts me right at 121. Play as defensively as possible.

Friday 6:57 AM

Friday 7:32 AM

I agree with SallyAnn. i learned from Ras that generally lower cards are better for pegging, so I tossed the 8 with the 3. I wonder if that’s for scoring or perhaps overall.

Friday 8:18 AM

I kept the 8 for more diversity. I didn't want to get rid of the A but I wanted to keep it with the 3.

Friday 8:48 AM

Clearly, we need to play defense here, right? So, the 5 is going and then either the A, 3 or 4 ... keeping the flush for meld.

Friday 10:14 AM

I wanted to keep low cards because I thought I had read on here that that’s the way to go.

Friday 10:48 AM

I'm sure I'm wrong but I'm playing full defence and hence keep wide cards. No way I'd keep the 4-5-6 run. My goal is to not let my opponent peg. Need to keep the A and 8 as they are my widest cards.

Friday 12:35 PM

I'm sure *I'm* wrong, and should have played it wasa's way.

Friday 12:42 PM

At 108*-113 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib_Total____W1 %____L1 %
4-5-6-8____11.78+(-2.02)+4.25=14.01____73.2____26.8
A-4-5-6____12.13+(-2.11)+3.64=13.66____83.0____17.0
A-5-6-8_____9.41+(-2.02)+4.45=11.84____73.8____26.2
3-4-5-6_____9.48+(-2.26)+3.48=10.70____72.1____27.9

Although lowest for expected averages of these four hands 3-4-5-6 is slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. In this end of game board position the Win/Loss %s are the most important so I'll select the A-8 to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

Friday 2:43 PM

Dang, *my* intuition is bad....

Friday 3:02 PM

Here is an interesting playout, illustrating how surprisingly good even these "bunched-up" cards can defend during the pegging:

(108*-113) (5 6 9 Js) (A K) vs (3 4 5 6) (A 8) Cut = 3s

9 (9) 3! (12) J (22) 6! (28=1), 6 (6) 5! (11) 5 (16-2) 4 (20=1), (110-115).

Pone = 5, Dealer =14, Crib = 4, Final Score (121-120).

Note several key pegging plays: After Pone leads a 9 Card, we play our Trey, because now, only a Trey can score, and the Cut Card during this random playout was a Trey. This is a special pegging tactic that involves our Opponent having one specific card, and while having that proper card scores MORE, we are playing the odds that such a card is less likely to be held since not only do we have a Trey, but one was the Cut Card as well.

Next, at a Count of Twenty-Two, we naturally bring the Count up to Twenty-Eight with our 6 Card, since we already know that Pone does not have a Trey. In the final volley of pegging, Pone leads a 6 Card, and as we expect a 5 Card, we take the route of lesser damage and play our 5 Card here, permitting the potential PAIR for Two Points, instead of allowing the lethal Run of 4-5-6 for a massive Five Points! When in doubt, always expect a 5 Card or a Jack.

Pone surprisingly comes up short, even with Knobs, and we stroll toward VICTORY. 🍪 🧃

Friday 3:38 PM

Another illustration (I hope someone can use these pegging ideas) of how this is actually a Pegging Puzzle, and not so much a Discard Puzzle, follows.

If Pone has Eight Points with the Cut Card, we are TOAST, so we should assume Pone will NOT have those Eight Points during the pegging. (Of course, if we are ever certain that Pone has Eight Points, then we should peg all we can to minimize the Spread Points by which we lose.)

(108*-113) (4 7 9 T) (Q K) vs (3 4 5 6) (A 8) Cut = 3

4 (4) 6! (10) 9 (19) 5! (24) 7 (31-2), 3! (3) T (13) 4 (17=1), (109-115).

Pone = 0, Dealer =14, Crib = 4, Final Score (121-120).

Here we are stunned with a 4 Card Lead, aimed right at the very weakness of our Four-Card-Run, so what shall we do? In cases like these, I like to ask, "What's the WORST that can happen?" and see what kind of answer pops out. Naturally, if we play a 6 Card here, we risk the proverbial 4-5-6 Run, surrendering a whopping Five Points, so we cannot do that, right?

But wait! With a Trey as the Cut Card, if Pone Leads a 4 Card, and then has a 5 Card "to boot," aren't we likely to LOSE ANYWAY?! Yes, and so if a 5 Card in Pone's Hand will probably beat us ANYWAY, even without Pone pegging, that likely makes the 6 Card Reply the correct play! Make sure you understand why this is the case.

Next, at a Count of Nineteen, what's the one card rank we (now) know Pone does NOT have? Yep, it's a 5 Card, and so we play our 5 Card. Finally, we see that if Pone has EITHER a remaining Trey or 4 Card, it would boost Pone's Hand to Four Points, and if we allow yet another Two Points pegged, we would LOSE! Meanwhile, we do have a Trey, and that puts the odds in the favor of the Trey being less likely to show up in Pone's Hand. We lead our Trey accordingly, in order to minimize Pone's chances and potential scoring. Notice how every pegging card choice is made strategically, and very purposefully; that's because IT MATTERS! 🍀 🍨

Friday 6:58 PM

Another few examples to finish up the day:

(108*-113) (2 5 8 Q) (9 9) vs (3 4 5 6) (A 8) Cut = Jc

2 (2) 6 (8) 8 (16) 4 (20) Q (30-1), 3 (3) 5 (8) 5 (13=3), (113-114).

Pone = 6, Dealer = 8, Crib = 2, Final Score (121-120).

Unbeknownst to us, Pone needs to peg Two Holes, and while we can assume Pone is "short," we really have no clue here. Given the tailwind of a Jack Cut, we start out pegging at Hole 110, and while we cannot be expected to peg Eleven Holes, the Dealer does enjoy the Pegging Advantage!

After the Deuce Lead, we could play a 5 Card or a 6 Card, but I like responding with the latter, as now if Pone wants to wrestle (15-2) from us, Pone needs to reply with a 7 Card after our 6 Card, allowing us to play our 5 Card for (20=3). It would then be a footrace, and one we would likely LOSE, BUT we'd be chipping away at those Spread Points.

Pone does not engage, so we proceed to DEFEND, and we hold the line. You never know how bad it is on the other side of the board!

Final Example:

(108*-113) (2 2 4 9) (8 K) vs (3 4 5 6) (A 8) Cut = Q

2 (2) 6 (8) 9 (17) 3 (20) 4 (24) 4! (28=2) 2 (30-1), 5 (5=1), (111-114).

Pone = 6, Dealer = 8, Crib = 2, Final Score (121-120).

This game starts out just like the preceding game, but ends in a much more pleasing manner. Especially note the 4 Card PAIR for (28-2), instead of being greedy and playing the 5 Card here for (29=3) and the 3-4-5 Run, which would then LOSE THE GAME! This serves as an excellent example for today's pegging predicament. 🍹 🥨

Friday 7:16 PM

Okay, one more, as close as it can get:

(108*-113) (3 4 7 8) (T K) vs (3 4 5 6) (A 8) Cut = 2

3 (3) 3! (6=2) 7 (13) 4 (17) 8 (25) 6 (31=2), 4 (4), 5 (9=1), (113-113).

Pone = 7, Dealer = 9, Crib = 0, Final Score (121-120).

Every card "plays itself" here. The only play that might require some explanation is our PAIRING of the initial Trey Lead, but think about it: If Pone has two Treys with a Deuce Cut, it's likely we're already defeated. Therefore, we PAIR the Trey, and accept the risk! 😍 🍰