April 14, 2025
52% 52% | |||||
32% 32% | |||||
11% 11% | |||||
1% 1% | |||||
0% 0% | |||||
0% 0% | |||||
0% 0% | |||||
0% 0% | |||||
Total votes: 324 |
Joined: June 2013 (4276 votes) Monday 3:08 AM
Lead the 3.
Cribbage Pro Scrimmage 14th Apr 2025 πScore: 121 to 89 𦨠πSP: 2360 π Streak: 16 https://www.cribbagepro.net/scrimmage/457/3333658/1 |
Joined: March 2016 (2174 votes) Monday 3:10 AM
Ditto. Hold the 3 nines. |
Joined: April 2008 (6785 votes) Monday 3:11 AM
Chuck 2-3 and go for eight to fifteen? I will stay with the check lead and no two pointer to their crib. dec |
Joined: May 2021 (147 votes) Monday 3:39 AM
It was the middle of a bad day, opponents had started 9 of my first 12 games with 12+, so I played for my luck to change. (No surprise, it didn't). I did ultimately win this particular game, however.
Cut was either a 2 or 4, was just curious how aggressive others are when presented with an opportunity to put themselves right to 15+ with a cut to start the game. |
Joined: March 2008 (6099 votes) Monday 4:20 AM
999 stays. I figured there were more 4s to be cut than 3s. The 6 was lucky starter. Lead the 9 and ditch the 2. |
Joined: February 2009 (1577 votes) Monday 4:30 AM
Not tossing them a 2-3 with these 6 cards. |
Joined: March 2023 (507 votes) Monday 4:36 AM
It's early. Let's try for an end straight for 15. If i wanted to hedge, I'd keep the 2 since there's one more 4 versus three 3's left to help get 12. |
Joined: January 2024 (428 votes) Monday 4:44 AM
2-T, 2-3, 3-T? First hand, it pays to be aggressive as Pone to approach his distant positional hole (18). Later in the game would be an entirely different story. |
Joined: August 2023 (91 votes) Monday 4:56 AM
Keeping the 9s and donβt want to setup dealerβs crib with 2-3 |
Joined: February 2009 (1644 votes) Monday 5:04 AM
Little too risky for the 23 discard here-prefer the 2 keep over the 3 because there are four fours left-only 3 threes-will lead the 9 |
Joined: January 2021 (1557 votes) Monday 5:37 AM
8/46 cuts (8s and Js) aren't enough to get me to send 2/3 from this hand.
I preferred keeping the two since it gets the extra cut (4s) compared to the three, but I am wondering if I'm better off with the three of dealer has X-X-X-X or X-X-X-5 where pegging could start 9-X(19)-9(28)-Go-3(31). Do we get that extra point often enough to offset the extra 8 points from that ~2% four cut? Maybe. |
Joined: October 2008 (4444 votes) Monday 6:23 AM
We are the First Non Dealer, and we are dealt three 9 Cards, alongside a Deuce, a Trey, and a Ten "T" Card in this fine, mid-April Cribbage Puzzle by tevdodd. π
While (9 9 9 T) has Thirteen Helpful Cuts (6666, 8888, 9, JJJJ), we cannot Toss (2 3) in the Enemy Crib. That leaves either (3 9 9 9), which has Eight Helpful Cuts (333, 6666, 9), and therefore will occur 8/46 equals 0.174 or about 17% of the time; or (2 9 9 9), which has Nine Helpful Cuts (4444, 6666, 9), and therefore will occur 9/46 equals 0.196, which is closer to about 20% of the time. π€ These two prospective outcomes are very close, and the only remaining issues are the Crib Value and the Pegging. When it comes to Crib Value, Toss (2 T) is a bit safer than Toss (3 T), since the Trey is a Key Connector. But the difference is minuscule. What about the pegging? π When it comes to pegging, however, there is a significant yet perhaps "hidden" difference. We often talk about Magic Elevens and Sweet Sixteens, but there is that "Other White Meat" that I have brought up to the menu occasionally, and it's the Twenty-One, which is built upon the precepts of the Magic Eleven, with our Opponent supplying a necessary Ten Card. π§ Specifically, against a Dealer with any number of "X" Cards, very often (5 X X X) or sometimes even (5 5 X X), if we lead a 9 Card and the Dealer responds with say a Queen or King, now, when we play another 9 Card, this will bring the Count up to Twenty-Eight. After the "go," we play our Trey for (31-2). π When we are not dealt any "X" Cards in Cribbage as occurred here, due to the mathematical constructs of the deck of cards and also because of the rules of the game, the odds that our Opponent will end up holding all or mostly "X" Cards shoots up close to 40%. All we need is one "X" Card from the Dealer, and no Small Cards below a 4 Card. Notice how the 3-9-9 trio forms a three-card Twenty-One, and when played in conjunction with an "X" Card by the Dealer, it equals (31-2)?! This makes the Trey a much better "Kicker" Card when held alongside 9-9-9 when we are Pone. This extra point will likely occur more often than that One Extra Cut Card, which only helps us an additional 1/46 equals 0.022 or about 2.2% of the time. π¦΅πΌ Let's Toss (2 T) today, and go with the better prospects for pegging, in spite of the slightly lower odds of obtaining a beneficial Cut Card. But make no mistake: Toss (3 T) is a close Runner-Up here, as we don't wish to 'stoke' the Dealer's Crib with the 'likes' of Toss (2 3)! π§Έ After the 6 Card Cut, we now have a Dozen Points in our Hand. Let's lead a 9 Card from our triplet as outlined earlier. π πΏ π· Inushtuk1 says: Hi John. What do you think of HalsCribCLX's offensive lead of the 3; hoping to bump the count to (22), and a GO - (31-4). Inushtuk1 says: It goes against Colvert's rule. But this may be an exception that Ras has talked about in the past. JQT says: I tend to lead from a PAIRS Royal as Pone, but it would be an interesting topic to examine and thus know from which Hands and/or at which Relative Scores it makes sense to lead with the "Out" Card when holding a PAIRS Royal alongside it. As you've indicated, against all "X" Cards we would score nicely: 3 (3) X (13) 9 (22) "go" 9 (31-4)! And, the odds that an Opponent has been dealt at least four "X" Cards is quite high when we were not dealt any. I remember a certain player at "Hand of the Day" who was very adamant that this would not be the case, and when I did everything to explain it short of supplying a detailed mathematical proof, as I recall, that player remained unconvinced. I believe the actual supposition was: If dealt NO "X" Cards and NO 5 Cards, what are the chances that the Opponent WILL BE ABLE to Keep any form of: (X X X X), (5 X X X), or (5 5 X X)? It's easy to test: Remove Six Non "X" and Non 5 Cards from an Ordinary Deck of Cards, and then deal out a Hand of Six Cards, examine the possible Four-Card Hands, and repeat the process. (Actually, to speed testing, one may deal out SEVEN unique Six-Card Arrangements from the remaining deck of Forty-Six Cards once those aforementioned Six Cards have been removed, and then examine each of these, as each will be valid Representative Hands from a deck that had none of those specific cards dealt to the Opponent.) I should write a definitive program or script and see what the actual figure is, but I believe it's between 35% and 40%. π± JQT says: That's not to say the Dealer will always retain those cards when present; for example, if dealt (8 9 T T K K), there's nothing that compels the Dealer to Toss (8 9), so the final figure of how often we actually face either: (X X X X), (5 X X X), or (5 5 X X), even when we are dealt NO "X" Cards and NO 5 Cards, would of course be a lot lower than how often it is POSSIBLE for our Opponent to hold such cards. Still, the fact that twenty of the fifty-two cards, or nearly 38.5% of every deck, are "Nickels and Dimes" does create a very rigid, mathematical certainty with regards to how often we shall face these cards when we are pegging in Cribbage, especially when we are dealt none of these, as it then places twenty of these among the remaining forty-six, which now commands 43% of the remaining deck! π‘ |
Joined: March 2020 (1193 votes) Monday 6:25 AM
Not tossing the 2/3 to hold 6...to hold 12, I would! |
Joined: May 2024 (365 votes) Monday 7:06 AM
Keeping the 2 instead of the three bc there are more 4s left in the deck. Nice starter! Lead the 2. |
Joined: December 2023 (219 votes) Monday 7:17 AM
What mob said |
Joined: July 2017 (620 votes) Monday 7:53 AM
This is no time to be shy! |
Joined: November 2014 (3332 votes) Monday 8:30 AM
Wanted to keep the nines. Didn't want to toss 2-3. As others said more 4s in deck than 3s so keep the 2 |
Joined: October 2007 (3300 votes) Monday 11:15 AM
I'll keep the 3, if it get the cut it is two more points, either way is luck. |
Joined: February 2008 (5638 votes) Monday 12:59 PM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
_______________Our Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W9 %____W10 % 3-9-9-9____7.17+1.20+(-4.33)=4.04____22.9____23.4 2-9-9-9____7.30+0.87+(-4.38)=3.79____22.0____22.5 9-9-9-10___8.52+1.15+(-7.51)=2.16____25.6____19.4 Offense______L9 %____L10 % 3-9-9-9_______35.4____50.0 2-9-9-9_______35.8____50.8 9-9-9-10______44.7____56.3 3-9-9-9 is best for expected0 averages by 0.25pt. It is also slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So, I'll select the 2-10 to discard. After the 6 cut I'll lead the 3 and play Offense: Lead_____________Our Pegging Points 3_______________________1.18 9_______________________0.94 |
Joined: August 2009 (2320 votes) Monday 2:00 PM
I am not putting 2-3 in the dealer's box at 0-0. So 2-10 it is. |
Joined: August 2019 (1999 votes) Monday 5:11 PM
To the moderators: I just submitted three puzzles, but I believe I made a mistake on the second one. Can the first two puzzles be deleted and then I'll resubmit them? JQT says: Hello scottcrib! I removed the first two of your three most recently-posted puzzles, per your request: One was set to appear on 6th May at the board position of: (118-112*), and the other was slated for 7th May at a board position of: (112*-118). The third puzzle you most recently posted to appear on the 8th of May at a board position of: (84-94*) remains intact, and it is set to appear on that date as posted, but I believe this third puzzle has one solution that is vastly superior to any other possible solution, and I'm inclined to remove it as well. Rex Crib shows that this one solution is about 2.5 Points better than any other solution, a huge amount, but perhaps it will not be readily apparent to some players. Let me know if you want this third puzzle removed as well. The slots for the 6th and 7th of May will be filled by the next two puzzle submissions, and I'll await your thoughts on the third (8th May) puzzle before I take any action. ( 2 a.m. ET - j q t - ) π πΎ π scottcrib says: Thank you very much! You are welcome to remove the third puzzle as well. I wasn't too happy with it either. JQT says: Okay, clean slate! π§Ό π πΏ |
Joined: December 2023 (96 votes) Monday 8:01 PM
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