Monday 3:08 AM

Lead the 3.

Cribbage Pro Scrimmage
14th Apr 2025
🏆Score: 121 to 89 🦨
🌋SP: 2360
📅Streak: 16
https://www.cribbagepro.net/scrimmage/457/3333658/1

Monday 3:10 AM

Ditto. Hold the 3 nines.

Monday 3:11 AM

Chuck 2-3 and go for eight to fifteen? I will stay with the check lead and no two pointer to their crib. dec

Monday 3:39 AM

It was the middle of a bad day, opponents had started 9 of my first 12 games with 12+, so I played for my luck to change. (No surprise, it didn't). I did ultimately win this particular game, however.

Cut was either a 2 or 4, was just curious how aggressive others are when presented with an opportunity to put themselves right to 15+ with a cut to start the game.

Monday 4:20 AM

999 stays. I figured there were more 4s to be cut than 3s. The 6 was lucky starter. Lead the 9 and ditch the 2.

Monday 4:30 AM

Not tossing them a 2-3 with these 6 cards.

Monday 4:36 AM

It's early. Let's try for an end straight for 15. If i wanted to hedge, I'd keep the 2 since there's one more 4 versus three 3's left to help get 12.

Monday 4:44 AM

2-T, 2-3, 3-T? First hand, it pays to be aggressive as Pone to approach his distant positional hole (18). Later in the game would be an entirely different story.

Monday 4:56 AM

Keeping the 9s and don’t want to setup dealer’s crib with 2-3

Monday 5:04 AM

Little too risky for the 23 discard here-prefer the 2 keep over the 3 because there are four fours left-only 3 threes-will lead the 9

Monday 5:37 AM

8/46 cuts (8s and Js) aren't enough to get me to send 2/3 from this hand.

I preferred keeping the two since it gets the extra cut (4s) compared to the three, but I am wondering if I'm better off with the three of dealer has X-X-X-X or X-X-X-5 where pegging could start 9-X(19)-9(28)-Go-3(31).

Do we get that extra point often enough to offset the extra 8 points from that ~2% four cut? Maybe.

Monday 6:23 AM

We are the First Non Dealer, and we are dealt three 9 Cards, alongside a Deuce, a Trey, and a Ten "T" Card in this fine, mid-April Cribbage Puzzle by tevdodd. 🎏

While (9 9 9 T) has Thirteen Helpful Cuts (6666, 8888, 9, JJJJ), we cannot Toss (2 3) in the Enemy Crib. That leaves either (3 9 9 9), which has Eight Helpful Cuts (333, 6666, 9), and therefore will occur 8/46 equals 0.174 or about 17% of the time; or (2 9 9 9), which has Nine Helpful Cuts (4444, 6666, 9), and therefore will occur 9/46 equals 0.196, which is closer to about 20% of the time. 🤔

These two prospective outcomes are very close, and the only remaining issues are the Crib Value and the Pegging. When it comes to Crib Value, Toss (2 T) is a bit safer than Toss (3 T), since the Trey is a Key Connector. But the difference is minuscule. What about the pegging? 📍

When it comes to pegging, however, there is a significant yet perhaps "hidden" difference. We often talk about Magic Elevens and Sweet Sixteens, but there is that "Other White Meat" that I have brought up to the menu occasionally, and it's the Twenty-One, which is built upon the precepts of the Magic Eleven, with our Opponent supplying a necessary Ten Card. 🔧

Specifically, against a Dealer with any number of "X" Cards, very often (5 X X X) or sometimes even (5 5 X X), if we lead a 9 Card and the Dealer responds with say a Queen or King, now, when we play another 9 Card, this will bring the Count up to Twenty-Eight. After the "go," we play our Trey for (31-2). 👑

When we are not dealt any "X" Cards in Cribbage as occurred here, due to the mathematical constructs of the deck of cards and also because of the rules of the game, the odds that our Opponent will end up holding all or mostly "X" Cards shoots up close to 40%. All we need is one "X" Card from the Dealer, and no Small Cards below a 4 Card.

Notice how the 3-9-9 trio forms a three-card Twenty-One, and when played in conjunction with an "X" Card by the Dealer, it equals (31-2)?! This makes the Trey a much better "Kicker" Card when held alongside 9-9-9 when we are Pone. This extra point will likely occur more often than that One Extra Cut Card, which only helps us an additional 1/46 equals 0.022 or about 2.2% of the time. 🦵🏼

Let's Toss (2 T) today, and go with the better prospects for pegging, in spite of the slightly lower odds of obtaining a beneficial Cut Card. But make no mistake: Toss (3 T) is a close Runner-Up here, as we don't wish to 'stoke' the Dealer's Crib with the 'likes' of Toss (2 3)! 🧸

After the 6 Card Cut, we now have a Dozen Points in our Hand. Let's lead a 9 Card from our triplet as outlined earlier. 🍕 🌿 🍷

Monday 6:25 AM

Not tossing the 2/3 to hold 6...to hold 12, I would!

Monday 7:06 AM

Keeping the 2 instead of the three bc there are more 4s left in the deck. Nice starter! Lead the 2.

Monday 7:17 AM

What mob said

Monday 7:53 AM

This is no time to be shy!

Monday 8:30 AM

Wanted to keep the nines. Didn't want to toss 2-3. As others said more 4s in deck than 3s so keep the 2

Monday 11:15 AM

I'll keep the 3, if it get the cut it is two more points, either way is luck.

Monday 12:59 PM

At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W9 %____W10 %
3-9-9-9____7.17+1.20+(-4.33)=4.04____22.9____23.4
2-9-9-9____7.30+0.87+(-4.38)=3.79____22.0____22.5
9-9-9-10___8.52+1.15+(-7.51)=2.16____25.6____19.4

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
3-9-9-9_______35.4____50.0
2-9-9-9_______35.8____50.8
9-9-9-10______44.7____56.3

3-9-9-9 is best for expected0 averages by 0.25pt. It is also slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So, I'll select the 2-10 to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll lead the 3 and play Offense:

Lead_____________Our Pegging Points
3_______________________1.18
9_______________________0.94

Monday 2:00 PM

I am not putting 2-3 in the dealer's box at 0-0. So 2-10 it is.

Monday 5:11 PM

To the moderators: I just submitted three puzzles, but I believe I made a mistake on the second one. Can the first two puzzles be deleted and then I'll resubmit them?

Monday 8:01 PM