Sunday 3:36 AM

A last bar or game hole puzzle to me. Sixteen face cards vs ten 7-8-9. A six cut might get me to the finish line. Four lead. dec

Sunday 3:44 AM

Not exactly the last train out of Dodge, but I went for the 14 hand anyway. Shooting for a 6 with the 445, but a King helps and probably does nothing for the 89 I tossed. Lead the 4.

Happy Easter.

Sunday 3:47 AM

We live dangerously this morning. Lead the 4D.

Sunday 3:55 AM

Go "bold".

Sunday 4:55 AM

We need Fifteen Points as Pone, but since the Dealer needs Twenty Points, we probably have some "wiggle room" to plant our Front Peg as far forward as possible during this deal, and then hopefully peg out as the Next Dealer when we have the Pegging Advantage.

We'll hold onto the 4-4-5 cluster with all our might, so this puzzle is about which "Fourth Card" to retain alongside the 4-4-5: will it be the Ace, the 8 Card, or the 9 Card?

* * * 🥚 🥚 🥚 🌷 🌷 🌷 🐇 🐇 🐇 * * *

I like (A 4 4 5), so let's Toss (8 9) today. This is valued a Full Point HIGHER 'over the board' than either alternative, but giving away an average "Close to Six Points" is not too much different than giving away an average of One Point LESS than that amount.

And I'm not so sure if Toss (A 9) would be the Second Place Idea today, and that's because (4 4 5 9) can attain Fourteen Points, just like our choice today of (A 4 5 6), whereas (4 4 5 8) can only reach a Dozen Points. The good news is that we don't have to decide beyond our First Choice of Toss (8 9)!

After the King Cut, we have Eight Points in our Hand, so even if we peg "squat," we shall see Hole 114 by the completion of this deal. That likely won't be enough to WIN, so let's try to peg AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE, because Four Holes Pegged should allow us to 'turn the tables' on our Opponent!

Let's lead a 4d Card from our PAIR, as this allows us to score after a staggering Thirty-Five Replies (AAA, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 7777, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKK), which is 35/45 equals 0.777 or nearly 78% of the remaining deck!

* * * 🥚 🥚 🥚 🌷 🌷 🌷 🐇 🐇 🐇 * * *

Obligatory Easter Sunday Playouts:

(106-101*) (A 4 4 5) (8 9) vs (5 Js Jh Jc) (2 6) Kd

4 (4) J (14) A (15-2) 5 (20) 5 (25-2) "go" 4 (29-1), J (10) J (20=3), (111-104).

Dealer had Three Jacks, but missed getting Nobs!

Pone 8, Dealer 14, Crib 2, (119-120).

(119*-120) (2 5 6 6) (5 8) vs (A 3 5 6) (9 Q) 9

6 (6) 6 (12=2), (121-120). VICTORY!

* * * 🥚 🥚 🥚 🌷 🌷 🌷 🐇 🐇 🐇 * * *

(106-101*) (A 4 4 5) (8 9) vs (9 Q K K) (2 2) Kc

4 (4) K (14) A (15-2) Q (25) 4 (29-1), K (10) 5 (15-2) 9 (24=1), (111-102).

Pone 8, Dealer 6, Crib 2, (119-110).

(119*-110) (3 3 4 5) (5 8) vs (8 9 T Js) (8 Q) Ac

3 (3) 9 (12) 3 (15-2) J (25) 4 (29-1), 8 (8) 5 (13) T (23=1), (120-113).

Pone 10, Dealer 4, Crib 4, (120-121). Missed it by One Point!

* * * 🥚 🥚 🥚 🌷 🌷 🌷 🐇 🐇 🐇 * * *

Thomas Krüger - https://youtu.be/PzOevSiss7o

Russia is now one-twentieth of one percent larger than it was in 2022, and all it has cost them is perhaps a million lives, and the respect of most of the world. 😨 🔱 🔰 - j q t -

Sunday 5:14 AM

Referencing yesterday, in official ACC play, if the dealer misses taking the cut Jack, it is the only instance the pone cannot claim Muggins.

Sunday 5:22 AM

Not sure what to do with these.
4 lead from the 4-8-4 sixteen.

Sunday 5:49 AM

Time to not be cautious and go for the hold with biggest potential

Sunday 6:10 AM

Defense. Not throwing the 8-9 connectors into their crib this close to the finish

Sunday 6:28 AM

Yesterday I was not tossing (2-3) even on Offense. Many disagreed with the bot that day. But the (8-9) makes much more sense today. Well we didn't get the 6 cut. Kismet! Lead the 4d. We're not likely to self pair them at the end of the first play series.

Sunday 6:38 AM

Several reasonable choices. A-8, A-9, 8-9 (or pitch defensively as yesterday with Dealer only 19 out)? 8-9 has best potential and is likely the best pegger.

Sunday 6:42 AM

Lead with the 4 of diamonds.

Happy Easter!

Sunday 6:55 AM

Hoped for a 6, 3 or court card.

Sunday 7:50 AM

I feel this hold offers the best blend of potential & defense.

Sunday 8:59 AM

With the flow.

Sunday 9:20 AM

Wow, the first to comment to hold 4459? As others, I'm going for that 14 point hand on s cut of 6.

Gives up 4 points from the X cut holding A445, and my hold certainly doesn't peg as well. But tossing the 89 in the crib really increases the chance of me losing this hand.

I can't peg aggressively as that usually means my opponent pegs more too. On an island, but I'm happy here

Sunday 9:35 AM

Of course, in real life, I never get the face card when I hold this!

Sunday 12:13 PM

At 106-101* playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging (cautious offense) the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Net
Optimal___Hand_Pegs____Crib____Total___W1 %____W2 %
A-4-4-5____6.96+(-0.15)+(-5.58)=1.23____11.8____28.4
4-4-5-8____5.57+(-0.65)+(-4.30)=0.61_____9.2____26.6
4-4-5-9____5.52+(-0.70)+(-4.41)=0.42_____8.8____25.4
A-4-5-9____5.57+(-0.76)+(-4.47)=0.34_____1.3____21.4

Optimal______L1 %____W2 %
A-4-4-5_______22.2____63.1
4-4-5-8_______14.6____66.1
4-4-5-9_______15.3____67.5
A-4-5-9_______16.6____72.3

A-4-4-5 is best for expected averages by 0.62pt. and it is appreciably best for Win %s but much worse than 4-4-5-8 for Loss %s. Even so I'll select the 8-9 to discard.

After the K cut I'll lead a 4 and play Offense:

Lead___________Our Pegging Points
4_____________________2.38
A_____________________2.00
5_____________________1.48