April 23, 2025

*** This hand was suggested by scottcrib
0-0*  ?
36%
36%
22%
22%
21%
21%
14%
14%
2%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 321
scottcribNewport, Oregon tournament.
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (6100 votes)

Wednesday 3:10 AM
Trying it this way. Lead the 4.
MarktheShark

Joined: January 2024 (429 votes)

Wednesday 3:12 AM
A-2, 2-6, 2-7, 4-4 flush? No flush for me. Strongly prefer 2-7 over 2-6 for its better melding and pegging potential.
tevdodd

Joined: May 2021 (154 votes)

Wednesday 3:13 AM
Cuts to 14. Should be an interesting spread today, with A-2, A-6, A-7, 2-6, 2-7 and apparently 4-4 all getting some love.

I actually threw a little quick, in the time it took to write this, I'd now throw 2-7.
MarktheShark says: On the hoped for 5 cut, it is 16 meld (4-4-7). Just like 3-4-5-6-6 = 16 meld (3-6-6).
tevdodd says: Yep. Just logged back in to correct myself. :) 16 it is.
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6786 votes)

Wednesday 3:28 AM
Lead card , fifteens and that hit on a four or a five and discard better. dec
JJx7fan

Joined: December 2023 (97 votes)

Wednesday 3:40 AM
I like keeping the A over the 7 to help with the 15's.
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4277 votes)

Wednesday 4:06 AM
4-A-6 combo might bring four pegs.

Wordle 1,404 6/6

⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛
⬛🟨🟨🟨⬛
⬛⬛🟩🟩🟩
⬛⬛🟩🟩🟩
⬛⬛🟩🟩🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

Another day when multiple answers fit the pattern.
Eolus619

Joined: June 2020 (1690 votes)

Wednesday 4:23 AM
Seeing no Xs , the A-4-4 stays. Both discards ..2-6 & 2-7 average 4.81 on Ras’s best balk discard list. As N/der, I try not to toss 7s. Favorable cuts come from 10/13 ranks.Early on in my cribbage journey, I would have tossed A-2, keeping a pair and touching cards. That keep eliminates all the cut Xs….the obvious eventually became clear to me ..🤔
Eolus619 says: News flash..In the current CW, page 18, there is a picture of Ras & his brother who are being recognized for each now having earned GR Platinum level..only 21 players at this level nationally & no other brothers have done so. Don’t know when the picture was taken..Ras is sporting a long Gandalf like beard , wearing his Marine Corps hat & smiling. Come back to DCH Ras ..you are dearly missed ❤️
scottcrib

Joined: August 2019 (2000 votes)

Wednesday 4:39 AM
I tossed 2-7 at the tournament. The cut was a 6.
Sgt Pegger says: sigh....it's too "earley" for this lol
Sgt Pegger

Joined: July 2017 (621 votes)

Wednesday 5:29 AM
I'm swinging for the fence at the start plus tha A,2 seems rather innocuous.
JQT

Joined: October 2008 (4445 votes)

Wednesday 5:47 AM
Wordle 1,404 4/6

⬛🟨🟩⬛🟩
⬛⬛🟩🟩🟩
⬛⬛🟩🟩🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
JQT says: (A 4 4 6) yields up to Fourteen Points after Four Cuts (5555), and yields Eight Points or more after Twenty-Eight Cuts (AAA, 44, 5555, 666, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK), and this POSITIVE result will occur 28/46 equals 0.609 or about 61% of the time; meanwhile, (Ac 2c 6c 7c) yields up to Fourteen Points after just One Cut (8c), and yields only Six Points or more after Eighteen Cuts (44, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK), and this NEGATIVE result will occur 18/46 equals 0.391 or about 40% of the time. 🍷
Inushtuk1

Joined: July 2016 (1779 votes)

Wednesday 5:54 AM
Well I'm not keeping a six point flush if it means tossing (4-4) over the board. The (4-4); like several others, can turn into a 24 Crib. Another case of losing the game on the first deal. I might have kept the flush if it was 2-4-6-7(A-4). That could never explode to 24. 12 yes; but not 24. Lead a 4 from the Magic Five, Three Card Magic Eleven combo.
JQT says: Hello Montréal Mike: My figures (above) left out the few Club Suits that could possibly help the FLUSH, but the analysis still shows that the FLUSH idea is inferior. Specifically, Toss (4 4) has a Crib Value of about 6.53 Points (Schell) in the Enemy Crib, and therefore if we retain the FLUSH or (Ac 2c 6c 7c), we shall end up with only those Six Points that we started with after Thirteen Cuts (4s, TsThTd, JsJhJd, QsQhQd, KsKhKd), which will occur 13/46 equals 0.283 or about 28% of the time, and if we temporarily ignore the pegging, this will therefore result in a NET LOSS of about Half a Point by completion of this deal! Meanwhile, Toss (2 7), has a Crib Value below Five Points (4.97, Schell), and (A 4 4 6) yields up to Fourteen Points after Four Cuts (5555), and promises Eight Points or more after Twenty-Eight Cuts (AAA, 44, 5555, 666, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK), and this will occur 28/46 equals 0.609 or about 61% of the time. If we then consider the pegging, it makes (A 4 4 6) even better, with its Three-Card Magic Eleven of A-4-6! 🍁
mfetchCT425

Joined: February 2009 (1578 votes)

Wednesday 5:57 AM
Chance for 14 with a 5 cut, 12 with a 4 cut. A, 6, or any face cut gives us a respectable 8 hand. Lead a 4.
Assman

Joined: May 2024 (366 votes)

Wednesday 6:33 AM
I’m taking the six points. Not scared of throwing (4 4) to the crib.
Jazzselke

Joined: March 2009 (2824 votes)

Wednesday 8:13 AM
Possible 14, 8 with a face-card, good pegging prospects.
Djgoat

Joined: December 2023 (220 votes)

Wednesday 9:36 AM
Well that cut didn't help!
RubyTuesday

Joined: January 2019 (1190 votes)

Wednesday 10:26 AM
A 2 to dealer’s crib so that I can enjoy the 5 turn up.
domandcarol

Joined: August 2023 (92 votes)

Wednesday 11:03 AM
I’ll be in agreement with Assman today
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5639 votes)

Wednesday 11:56 AM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W9 %____W10 %
A-4-4-6____7.61+2.17+(-4.56)=5.22____27.7____26.0
A-2-6-7____8.98+2.00+(-6.01)=4.97____30.1____25.0
A-4-4-7____6.91+1.74+(-4.49)=4.16____25.3____24.4

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
A-4-4-6_______37.2____48.7
A-2-6-7_______41.6____50.7
A-4-4-7_______36.8____49.8

A-4-4-6 is best for expected averages by 0.25pt. and although A-2-6-7 is slightly best for Win %s, A-4-4-6 is appreciably lower for Loss %s. So I'll select the 2-7 to discard.

After the K cut I'll play Offense and lead a 4:

Lead_____________Our Pegging Points
4_______________________2.09
A_______________________1.70
6_______________________1.48