Wednesday 3:10 AM

Betting the farm for a face card.

Wednesday 3:13 AM

21 cuts give us at least 12

Wednesday 3:16 AM

Its a go for a game winning cut. Thought about A-4 discard for pegging possibilities but I do think dealer will help here. Sixteen face cards or another two or three cut. Cut accomplished , lead a two and short of a two response play off here. dec

Wednesday 4:20 AM

Wednesday 4:22 AM

Plenty of Cut Cards will help many various Hands, but we want to choose the one that's best! Also, with the Dealer at Hole 112, while there is little to fear about the Dealer pegging out, the Dealer is close enough to defeat us IF we cannot go out via our First Hand Show, therefore we'll treat the Crib Values today as "Don't Cares."

Another thing that is extremely important to note is that we do not need the MOST Points here; we need TEN Points! The difference can be subtle, but if we find one idea that has a 5% chance of reaching a Dozen Points or more, and a 40% chance of reaching Ten Points or more, it's a lot better idea than one that has a 10% chance of reaching a Dozen Points or more, but only a 25% chance of reaching Ten Points or more.

This means that if we merely pick the idea with the highest Expected Average, we may be wrong! We want the highest chance of scoring Ten Points or more. The best way to become more familiar with this kind of problem is to "map out" a few selected ideas, and look at the results of a few of the various numbers of Cut Cards and Hand Totals.

Let's get a Hand Mapping of those three Discard Choices that allow us to begin with at least Six Points:

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(111-112*) (Ad 2h 2d 2c 4s 5h) Cut = Jc, by domandcarol, May 14, 2025.

Dump the 4-5 Idea:

Keep (A 2 2 2) and Toss (4 5)

Expected Hand Average is 436 DIV 46 = 9.478
(minus) Expected Crib Value (Schell) is 7.260
Total is 9.478 (Crib is "Don't Care," so do not subtract it!)

04x15=060 - 3333 (Maximum Hand, 4 cuts = 15 Points)
17x12=204 - 2, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK (21 cuts >= 12 Points)
11x08=088 - AAA, 8888, 9999 (32 cuts >= 8 Points)
14x06=084 - 444, 555, 6666, 7777 (Minimum Hand, 14 Cuts = 6 Points)
46 ___ 436

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Dump the Ace-5 Idea:

Keep (2 2 2 4) and Toss (A 5)

Expected Hand Average is 386 DIV 46 = 8.391
(minus) Expected Crib Value (Schell) is 6.010
Total is 8.391 (Crib is "Don't Care," so do not subtract it!)

04x15=060 - 3333 (Maximum Hand, 4 cuts = 15 Points)
04x14=056 - 9999 (8 cuts >= 14 Points)
05x12=060 - 2, 7777 (13 cuts >= 12 Points)
06x08=048 - 444, 555 (19 cuts >= 8 Points)
27x06=162 - AAA, 6666, 8888, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK (Minimum Hand, 27 Cuts = 6 Points)
46 ___ 386

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Dump the Ace-4 Idea:

Keep (2 2 2 5) and Toss (A 4)

Expected Hand Average is 382 DIV 46 = 8.304
(minus) Expected Crib Value (Schell) is 5.720
Total is 8.304 (Crib is "Don't Care," so do not subtract it!)

09x12=108 - 2, 6666, 8888 (Maximum Hand, 10 cuts = 12 Points)
26x08=208 - 444, 555, 9999, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK (35 cuts >= 8 Points)
11x06=066 - AAA, 3333, 7777 (Minimum Hand, 11 Cuts = 6 Points)
46 ___ 382

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There are not many Cut Cards for any of our "mapped" ideas that reach Ten Points "on the nose," so this gives us some tedious work to do. If we base our answer on a Dozen Points, we see that after Toss (4 5), we have Twenty-One Cuts that yield a Dozen Points or more, and after Toss (A 5), we have just Thirteen Cuts that yield a Dozen Points or more, and after Toss (A 4), we have only Ten Cuts that yield a Dozen Points. This tends to indicate that Toss (4 5) is the best idea.

What if we think that we shall peg Two Holes (a DANGEROUS assumption, but nevertheless, a good comparison to perform), we see that after Toss (4 5), we have Thirty-Two Cuts that yield Eight Points or more, and after Toss (A 5), we have just Nineteen Cuts that yield Eight Points or more, and after Toss (A 4), we have a whopping Thirty-Five Cuts that yield Eight Points or more. This tends to reinforce the thought that Toss (4 5) is still the best idea, but it also indicates that Toss (A 4) may indeed be Second-Runner-Up, and not Toss (A 5)!

One final check that is often helpful to make is to examine the number of LOSER Cuts. Here we see that after Toss (4 5), we have Fourteen Cuts that add NOTHING and leave us at just Six Points, and after Toss (A 5), we have Twenty-Seven Cuts that add NOTHING and leave us at just Six Points, and after Toss (A 4), we have only Eleven Cuts that add NOTHING and leave us at just Six Points. This still has me convinced that Toss (4 5) is very likely our best idea, but it also tends to confirm once again that Toss (A 4) is indeed the Second-Runner-Up idea, and Toss (A 5) will be Third on the Podium!

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Let's confidently Toss (4 5) today, and say "Good-bye" to Mr. Five Card! After the Jack Cut, we have a Dandy Dozen Points, but the score has suddenly changed to (111-114*) after the Dealer tallies His Heels. Our last remaining challenge is to prevent the Dealer from pegging Seven Holes, which occurs more commonly than we want or like to believe.

It's hard to imagine that leading either our Ace or one of our three Deuces can matter at this juncture, but one card must be safer than the other! I'm inclined to lead a Deuce simply because we have three of them, and by leading a Deuce, we retain a modicum of variety, but I cannot calculate a way in which it really matters. We should maybe study a Dealer Hand that could reliably peg Seven Holes after one lead, but not be able to do so after the other lead, and I'd have to perform a lot of testing to determine if such a Dealer Hand (or Hands) even exists!

If we do wish to apply some logic toward the pegging, we are probably better off thinking about our Second Card Played in this kind of scenario, because we could easily get "trapped" into a Three-Card-Run of A-2-3, or even a Four-Card-Run of A-2-3-4, if we retain an Ace-Deuce Duo as our last two remaining cards. This begs us to unload the Lone Ace early.

Also, the Dealer will have more trouble PAIRING a Deuce here, simply because we had 75% of them dealt to us! Therefore, I'm much more concerned that the Dealer could more readily end up PAIRING our Lone Ace if we retain it too long, and say a Dealer who has (A A X X) plays an Ace as the Third Card to bring the Count to Twenty-Seven, and if all we have is our Final Ace remaining, we would have to make the Count Twenty-Eight, and conceivably, the Dealer could end with another Ace for (29=7), and WIN the game due to the Jack Cut (along with our incompetence)! Let's review this pegging disaster below:

Sadge 😰 Pegging Outcome for Pone:
(111-112*) (A 2 2 2) (4 5) vs (A A X X) (6 6) Cut = J
2 (2) X (12) 2? (14) X (24) 2 (26) A (27) A (28-2) A (29=7)! (113-121)! Oops! We LOSE.

For these reasons, I believe we should try to rid ourselves of the Lone Ace as our Second Card Played, and I might even entertain the thought and become convinced that we could/should even lead our Lone Ace. That wraps up a very educational Cribbage Endgame Puzzle. 🎈 ☕ 🍫

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Let's listen to a few tunes by Thelonious Monk once again:

Monk broke a lot of the "rules" when it came to his style of playing the piano, and he often followed that unwritten Jazz concept that says, "If you play a 'wrong' note . . . play it again!" In defiance, he once stated that, "The piano ain't got no 'wrong' notes."

Monk was not born with natural musical knowledge or ability, nor was he entirely self-taught, but it is suspected that he possessed 'perfect pitch'. He received a formidable music education, and worked very hard to create and achieve his distinctive sound and style. Especially noteworthy is his uncanny knack of precise timing. Monk remains a favorite composer of mine for these and many other reasons.

Blue Monk / Sweetheart of All My Dreams:
https://youtu.be/SthFDEE3zKQ
https://youtu.be/O7D3TGk2rhw

A deeper dive, "Live in Berlin" 1969:
https://youtu.be/ZzWjR6xO-BE

Wordle 1,425 4/6 (Feynman Pastime)

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⬛🟩⬛⬛🟨
⬛🟩⬛🟨🟨
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

Wednesday 4:36 AM

Should be 100%

Wednesday 4:48 AM

Ditto.

Wednesday 5:44 AM

That lone 5 is not going to do anything for me, and there are 21 cards that can put me out

Wednesday 5:58 AM

Echo.....

Wednesday 6:06 AM

A few interesting playouts and Close Calls: (Pone Hand is ALWAYS listed first, and Cut Card is shown last) ☕ 🍩

(111-112*) (A 2 2 2) (4 5) vs (A 2 3 X) (6 7) 6
2 (2) 2? (4=2) 2 (6-6) X (16) A (17) A (18=2) 2 (20) 3 (23=4), (121-120). We WIN!
We got lucky and the Dealer PAIRED our Deuce Lead Card! Dealer should abstain from scoring here, and play the X Card!

(111-112*) (A 2 2 2) (4 5) vs (T J J Q) (3 7) A
2 (2) J (12) 2? (14) T (24) 2 (26) "go" A (27-1), Q (10) J (20=1), (120-121). We LOSE!
It's crucial to unload the Ace as our Second Card Played, and retain the two Deuces for Self-PAIRING (see next example).

(111-112*) (A 2 2 2) (4 5) vs (7 K K K) (A 2) 8
2 (2) K (12) A! (13) K (23) 2 (25) "go" 2 (27-3), K (10) 7 (17=1), (121-113). We WIN!
Here, the Dealer was hoping we would lead an X Card from a Hand with otherwise all Small Cards, and Dealer wants to unload the 7 Card, see us Play Out all of our cards, and then the Dealer can peg Nine Holes with three Kings and *almost* defeat us! 🌿

Wednesday 6:10 AM

Win now!

Wednesday 6:11 AM

The crib will not likely be a factor so what's the easiest way to get 12 or more?

Wednesday 6:23 AM

As others have said, don't worry about the net value. Any 2,3,9?,T,J,Q or K will do as a cut.

Wordle 1,425 4/6

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🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
Unusual as a singular, I thought they came in pairs?

Cribbage Pro Scrimmage
14th May 2025
🏆Score: 121 to 84 🦨
🌋SP: 2465
📅Streak: 15
https://www.cribbagepro.net/scrimmage/487/3333658/1

Wednesday 6:28 AM

I see this may have been a case of over thinking originally. At first I thought with only 6 points I didn’t want to toss 45 and set up crib I see that I overlooked the obvious. Sometimes relying on that friendly cut may be the only thing you have to go on. Thanks for all comments and advice. That’s why I’m here!

Wednesday 7:58 AM

Ditto.. Face card for the win!!

Wednesday 8:37 AM

Running with the rest of the crew this morning!

Wednesday 10:17 AM

Ditto. After that great cut, lead the ACE and not the TWO ... just in case Dealer holds A-A-A-X and can outpeg us to the game hole.

Wednesday 1:22 PM

At 112-111* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the Win/Loss %s are the most important at this stage of the game:

Offense__________Win %______Loss %
A-2-2-2___________57.9_______42.1
2-2-2-5___________55.3_______44.7
2-2-2-4___________42.7_______57.3

A-2-2-2 is slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s so I'll select the 4-5 to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead a 2 and play Defense:

Lead________Dealer's Pegging Points
2___________________(-2.23)
A___________________(-2.53)