Thursday 3:06 AM

Thursday 3:20 AM

Sneaky good submission today. Normally I keep the flush from this arrangement, or toss 5-7 if there is no flush. HOWEVER, we're -15 at this point, it's time to swing for the fences. Keeping 55JQ gives us 15 cuts to 16+. That moves us to 71 before we count the crib. (Which now may be empty, but thems the breaks when you've got this many big hand cuts). 4 cut is rough for us today, but again, thems the breaks. Play offense, hopefully over over the next 6 deals you can be +2.5 of average on each, or at least +1.5 of each to give yourself a chance to peg out on the last.

Thursday 3:21 AM

Wordle 1,447 6/6

🟩⬜⬜⬜⬜
🟩⬜🟨🟨⬜
🟩🟩⬜🟨⬜
⬜🟨⬜⬜⬜
⬜⬜🟨⬜⬜
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

Don't even want to claim this as a win this morning, I botched my 3rd guess, took it off hard mode for guess 4 and 5, and created like 15 new words.

Thursday 3:42 AM

Discarding when we are the Dealer is often a more challenging task than discarding while we are Pone, and today's puzzle illustrates this well. 🎨 🧩 🍹

When we are Pone, we retain the good stuff, get rid of the bad stuff, and that's it! But as the Dealer, we're looking to "build" the best combination of Pegging, Hand, and Crib, and it's often a bit trickier to find the most productive way to "balance" our resources. 😐

If we retain the FLUSH, we start with Seven Points in our Hand (which is incidentally not a great Pegging Hand), and yet we stash a Crib Value of nearly Nine Points into our own Box! 💰

However, if we hold (5 5 J Q) or (5 5 Q K), we begin with a better Pegging Hand and Ten Points, with either Toss (7 K) or (7 J) barely eking out a Crib Value of about Three or Three-and-a-Half Points. ☔

But unless we can peg Three or Four Holes MORE with this Hand (something that I tend to strongly doubt), it's probably better to retain the FLUSH and jettison the PAIR of 5 Cards. 🪂

It's probably even better to Toss (5 7) than Toss (7 K) or Toss (7 J), but if we hold the FLUSH, we can avoid having to invest any time or energy into doing all of that secondary decision-making work of having to choose between these three likely inferior ideas. 🍡

Let's Toss (5 5) today, and seek the greatest combined total. After the 4 of Diamonds Cut Card, we still have Seven Points in our Hand, but we could have up to Twenty-Four Points in our Crib, that is, if Pone decided to Toss (4 6) or (6 6)! 😏

Malcolm Nance on Times Radio FRONTLINE 💠 🔱 🌻
"Asymmetric Warfare in Ukraine" 🔵 🟡
https://youtu.be/W9q9YIBo8eE

Wordle 1,447 5/6 (what we do before we marry them)

⬛🟨🟨⬛⬛
⬛🟩⬛⬛🟨
⬛🟩🟩⬛⬛
⬛🟩🟩⬛⬛
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

Thursday 3:55 AM

In my scenario they discard X-6. 5-5 when your hand can still has a chance for a dozen. dec

Thursday 4:00 AM

A picture cut may yield us a 12 hand 10 crib-looking for the same cards no matter how we break it up

Thursday 4:21 AM

Nickels to the crib.

Thursday 4:24 AM

On and off over the past several years I have been working on a Cribbage scoring system. Today I may give up. I went over to ChatGPT to give me the discard. It gave me similar results to my program but with a heck of lot more information. Here's a link to my ChatGPT session. https://chatgpt.com/share/68417dee-19a8-8001-9858-5d4f6d36bbd2

Thursday 4:25 AM

Thursday 4:40 AM

Another Al Miller axiom was to "never be seduced by the flush". What would you do if there wasnt a flush? I kept the pat 9 point hand. With the 4 cut there is no guarantee the crib is going to have any more that 2 points. I want to be at hold 70 so I need to peg a little.

After a month of rain here in Northern Massachusetts, here comes the Sun and 95 degrees. That was abrupt.

Thursday 4:45 AM

Just taking a shot a big crib

Thursday 4:58 AM

Toughie. Without the flush option, 5-7 is clearly the pitch. However, I am far behind positionally, so I need to hope for a good cut and to be able to defend.

Thursday 5:19 AM

Thursday 5:21 AM

IMO, this makes the most sense overall.

Thursday 5:35 AM

Keeping the pat 7 and hoping for a big hit in the crib

Thursday 5:53 AM

Hopefully they discarded K6.

Wordle 1,447 4/6

🟨⬛🟨⬛⬛
⬛🟩⬛⬛🟨
⬛🟩🟨🟩🟨
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
Unusual to see this word in the singular.

Thursday 6:44 AM

Thanks to all..so far..for the varied perspectives on board position strategy and discard. This is the classic example of Ras’s Big Hand Rule which he says applies 95% of the time. As dealer, 5-5 can be tossed if the keep can cut to 12. However, for the remaining 5%, Jazz’s increasingly famous cribbage theorem can apply…”?? is the best answer until it isn’t “ Today..for me, in Ras I trust.

Thursday 10:43 AM

Best offence needed.

Thursday 1:05 PM

At 55*-60 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib_Total____W4 %____W5 %
5-J-Q-K____11.17+(-2.09)+5.93=15.01____11.0____32.5
7-J-Q-K_____9.02+(-2.39)+8.27=14.90____11.8____34.6

Defense_______L4 %____L5 %
5-J-Q-K________14.5____42.8
7-J-Q-K________13.6____41.0

5-J-Q-K is better for expected averages by 0.11pt. bit 7-J-Q-K is slightly better for Win %s and lower for Loss %s. So, I'll select 5-5 to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

Thursday 1:10 PM

Gotta be careful with my words, make sure I’m not representing anyone other than myself here 😂

Thursday 4:57 PM

Excellent puzzle. I went this way because I underestimated the difference between 55 in dealers’s crib and 57 in dealers crib. Turns out the difference is about three points. So in that case, it’s better to hold the seven instead of the nine and hope that you make it up in the crib. I will say that, although I’m inexperienced compared to most every commenter, I’ve rarely seen 55 explode in the crib. Obviously it will when a quartet of X cards appear in the crib, which certainly occurs every now and then. But I’ve seen seen 55 disappoint with six or eight points or something like that (not that six or eight in the crib is a bad thing).

🤷🏼‍♂️