Saturday 3:06 AM

** Spoilers ahead **

*0-0, 3-Q
15-9*, 3-7
*27-24, A-9
44-32*, J-Q
*57-59, J-5
75-75*, A-2
*94-97, 5-9
104-110, 7-10

Cribbage Pro Scrimmage
26th Jul 2025
🏆Score: 121 to 111
🌋SP: 1570
📅Streak: 40
https://www.cribbagepro.net/scrimmage/560/3333658/1

Saturday 3:20 AM

Tough decision because 23 cards keep this hand at 6 points. If I choose to hold the run 5677, 24 cards increase the value of this hand to 10 points with a lackluster 4-7 to the crib. I prefer to hold a decent hand and a crib with potential - 4-5 is the choice. Only one card the starter affects the hand but three cards affect the crib (starter and 2 cards from opponent).

Saturday 3:25 AM

LOOK: It's Three 7 Cards with a 5-6 Duo, just like we had yesterday, or . . . as Yogi Berra often uttered, "It's déjà vu all over again!" ⚾ 🏃🏼‍♂️ 🐻

But wait! We're the Dealer this time, and there is no FLUSH, and our low-ranking "kicker" is a 4 Card, and not a Trey, so unlike yesterday, we are the Dealer, and we're trailing, and we have a Four-Card Run. Therefore, it is an entirely different puzzle. 🧩

Oh, and Thank You to all those Puzzle Composers who submitted Dealer-Based Puzzles for the month of July, as I requested; we have in fact been seeing and solving a seldom-achieved ratio of 50% Dealer-Based Puzzles this month! Feel the Burn! 🌋

What really makes this puzzle complicated today is that we are the Dealer sitting Six Holes "shy" of the Second Street Par Hole 44, while our Opponent already stands One Hole beyond this crucial target. We need a solid PUSH FORWARD, and this is no time for speculation or for taking a risk. 🧢

Here on today's menu, we could Toss (7 7), although this would sadly 'bust up' the PAIRS Royal that we just dealt ourselves. Toss (7 7) is a fairly powerful Dealer Discard, and it leaves behind (4 5 6 7), which is a very competent Pegging Hand, and while it gets help from almost all Cut Cards, it does remain at just Six Points after Four Cuts (AAAA), which we know will occur 4/46 equals 0.087 or nearly 9% of the time. We'll use this idea as our benchmark. 🔰

If we wish to possibly fall under the spell of "Double Run Hypnosis" by holding (5 6 7 7), this would similarly 'split up' the PAIRS Royal, and have us possibly performing an act of "Crib Poison" under the auspices of Toss (4 7). 🧪

The Double Run is very tempting, since (5 6 7 7) always gets at least Two Points of additional help after ANY Cut Card, and such a Hand should likely peg well. But Toss (4 7) is the price we would have to pay for holding onto the Desirable Double Run. I'm not certain if this Double Run is an improvement, but it is a viable idea. 🤖

Alternatively, Toss (4 5) would energize our Crib even better than Toss (7 7), and it would allow us to pursue a Dozen Points or more in our Hand that come after Sixteen Cuts (AAAA, 2222, 555, 7, 8888), which shall occur 16/46 equals 0.348 or about 35% of the time. 🎲

And if we hold (6 7 7 7), Four Cuts (8888) would allow us to 'cash in' on Twenty-One Points, which will occur nearly 9% of the time! And yet this idea only starts out with a Hand of Six Points, and it remains just Six Points after a colossal Twenty-Three Cuts (3333, 444, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK), which would of course occur 23/46 equals 0.500 or a stunning 50% of the time! 🎣

I'm wanting very much to be able to hold (6 7 7 7) here, but the 50% chance of having to start out with what we started out with is an oppressive fact that cannot be escaped, and this won't permit me to Toss (4 5) today! Toss (7 7) might not score quite as well of a Crib as Toss (4 5), but it's "close enough," and I am quite confident that with its two, two-card Magic Elevens, this idea can make up the difference (and probably more) in the pegging produced by (4 5 6 7). 📍

Let's seek harmony and "get the RED out" and Toss (7 7) today, as we try to obtain up to Sixteen Points in our Hand, and we also enjoy a possible path toward Twenty-Four Points in our Crib. It's more likely we'll get fewer respective points in both our Hand and Crib, but this very flexible Hand with its Four-Card Run of (4 5 6 7) should peg very well. After the Trey Cut, we now have Nine Points in our Hand, with prospects for a decent Crib. 🎁

* * * ☕ 🍪 💐 * * *

After the Trey Cut, we'll respond to the various Lead Cards by Pone as follows:

Ace: A 7 Card Response only allows Pone to score with the "case" 7 Card (remember, we placed a PAIR of 7 Cards into our Crib!), and it also keeps the integrity of our remaining Run-of-Three for pegging strength;

Deuce: We can entice play with a 4 Card Response;

Trey: We can entice play with a 4 Card Response, and if Pone replies with an 8 Card for (15-2), push the Count up to Twenty-Two with our 7 Card;

4 Card: PAIR it with our 4 Card, and against let's say (3 4 5 5), we hope it continues with something like: 4 [4] 4 [8=2] 5 [13] 6 [19=3] 3 [22-4] 7 [29=6], 5 [5] 5 [10=3], as we may out-peg Pone 14-to-4, or by a Ten-Point margin;

5 Card: We can entice play with a 7 Card Response (if Pone had a Trey, it likely would have been led instead of a 5 Card);

6 Card: PAIR it with our 6 Card (if Pone had a Trey, it likely would have been led instead of a 6 Card), and if Pone has PAIRS Royal for (18-6), then respond with our 5 Card (it's unlikely Pone has the "case" 7 Card), and if Pone plays a 4 Card for (27-3), then we unload our 4 Card for (31=4), but if Pone says "go," then we play our 7 Card for (30=4);

7 Card: PAIR it with our 7 Card (it's unlikely Pone has the "case" 7 Card, and if Pone had an Ace, it likely would have been led instead of a 7 Card);

8 Card: Respond with our 7 Card and take the (15=2), and if Pone proceeds to score a Three-Card Run, we can then continue the play by scoring a Four-Card Run;

9 Card: Respond with our 6 Card and take the (15=2), and if Pone then plays any X Card, respond with our 4 Card and NOT the 5 Card, which we'll save in case Pone then leads any X Card, so we can additionally peg another (15=2);

X Card: Respond with our 5 Card and gobble the (15=2), and if Pone has all X Cards (or a similar arrangement with mostly high-ranking cards), it's likely we'll out-peg Pone 5-to-0, or by a Five-Point margin.

I hope that my pegging prowess ideas and strategies are helpful for newer players, and that it's not riddled with too many errors, miscalculations, or mistakes. I try to be accurate and not speculate, but the "play" or pegging in Cribbage is often more art than science, and takes more than a lifetime to master, and most tactics and strategies are of course open to alternative ideas and interpretation. 🎭 🎪 🎢

* * * ☕ 🍪 💐 * * *

A lovely playout of the current deal of this puzzle went as follows:

https://youtu.be/BK_SntrRw6c

🌈 🍷 🌼 🍇 🌾

(38*-45) (4d 5d 6d 9d) (8s 8h) vs (4c 5c 6s 7s) (7h 7d) 9h
Pegging: 4 [4] 4 [8=2] 9 [17] 7 [24] 6 [30-1], 6 [6] 5 [11] 5 [16=3], (43*-46).
Scoring: Pone 15, Dealer 8, Crib 24, (75*-61).
Summary: While initially ahead of me by Seven Holes, Pone barely 'lumbered' onto Third Street, while I sprinted my sprightly, shiny pegs half-way down Third Street, with a magnificent view and a lead of Fourteen Holes!

* * * ☕ 🍪 💐 * * *

Wordle 1,498 3/6

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My accumulative Wordle statistics for the past year: 97.613% correct in 6 or fewer guesses, 93.369% correct in 5 or fewer guesses, 76.393% correct in 4 or fewer guesses, 32.891% correct in 3 or fewer guesses, and 3.184% correct in 2 guesses, 0% in 1 guess. 😑

As of today (7/26/2025), in spite of a number of recent solutions coming in just three guesses, my Average Wordle Score has drifted up slightly from 3.772 in May to about 3.798 as of today. 🍹

https://whatisthisthing.com/wordle-average-score-calculator/

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https://youtu.be/cmsRbMU-4pM

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Saturday 4:17 AM

I went for Grandslam, and I'm walking back to the dugout after whiffing.

Saturday 4:20 AM

Didn’t like breaking up the double run, but disliked 7-4 to crib even more.

Saturday 4:26 AM

I love my 456 run!

Saturday 4:41 AM

All out offense on three fronts. dec

Saturday 5:31 AM

Board position..” it’s not dark yet but it’s gettin there “ So playing O. When it comes to dealer discarding pairs, 3-3 & 7-7 are the highest point producers. The hand and/or crib get cut help from 13/13 ranks.

https://www.cribbage.org/NewSite/tips/rasmussen6.asp

Saturday 5:53 AM

Ditto

Saturday 6:15 AM

Just liked being able to toss a pair in my crib.

Got the better of me today
Cribbage Pro Scrimmage
26th Jul 2025
💔Score: 116 to 121
🌟SP: 504
📅Streak: 211

Saturday 7:55 AM

What they said above works for me.

Saturday 9:32 AM

Three reasonable pitches to choose from. 4-5, 4-7, 7-7. I usually choose the best pegger, but here I choose the worst. 5 goes in the crib so I can try to catch up.

Saturday 2:05 PM

Let's take the double run and hopefully more. Best for hand size. Need to see Halscrib.

Saturday 3:09 PM

At 38*-45 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs_Crib_Total____W6 %____W7 %
4-5-6-7_____9.39+3.83+5.49=18.71____36.4____23.1
5-6-7-7____11.72+3.52+3.45=18.69____35.3____22.9
6-7-7-7_____9.37+2.57+6.50=18.44____35.5____23.9

Offense_______L6 %____L7 %
4-5-6-7________53.0____57.2
5-6-7-7________52.6____57.6
6-7-7-7________49.7____56.1

4-5-6-7 is best for expected averages by a very slender 0.02pt. while its is very slightly best for Win %s and equal to 5-6-7-7 for Loss %s. So, I'll select a 7-7 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.

Saturday 4:03 PM

Yay. I got one. It just took me a few minutes to realize I can save 8 points for myself and have the best chance for more given the starter cards. How to do that analysis in 15 seconds?

Saturday 6:47 PM

-6, I'm taking the known 8 with the highest ceiling. Open ended cuts for 17+.

Cribbage Pro Daily Scrimmage *Spoiler*
Score 120 to 121 LOSS

Such is life :(, and I'm exhausted atm so probably made a lot of mistakes.

Discards:
1. T-Q
2. 3-7
3. A-9
4. 2-Q 43-35*
5. 5-J 56*-60
6. A-2
7. 5-9
8. 7-T

Wordle 1,498 3/6*

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