Wednesday 3:04 AM

What Ras would call "a poor hand" with today's submission!

Wednesday 3:10 AM

Q-8 from me.
6+2 = 8, so I'm still helped by the cut of a 7 even though my actual 8 card has gone.
I'll lead the 2 from the 2-10-4 sixteen combo:

2(2)-5(7)-10(17)-X(27)-4(31/2).

Wordle 1,502 5/6

⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛
⬛🟨⬛⬛⬛
⬛⬛🟨🟨🟨
🟩⬛🟨🟨🟨
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
It couldn't have been word 4, but it did help organise the order of the yellows from word 3.

Wednesday 3:11 AM

We've made it onto Fourth Street with a One-Point Lead, but with our Opponent already a few holes "deep" into the Par-Hole-Zone and Dealing from Hole 99, we have more than our own progress to worry about. We'd like to 'stick it' to the Enemy Crib here, and peg Defensively as well. 🏆

It's that lovely (2 4 6 8) assortment, or "Two, Four, Six, Eight, who do we appreciate?" It's a Hand Arrangement I call, "The In-Laws Are Here!" Oh Boy! Not this bunch again, thank you. And I don't know about you, but I am dealt this hand about Eleventy-Nine times in every game, or so it seems. "You get it even more," you say? I understand, totally, I do.

When my Dad was alive, he would sometimes complain about his cards during a particular deal (which he would occasionally do, even when he was ahead in a game), and I would challenge him: "You give me your cards and your score, and I'll give you my cards with my score -- is it a deal?"

He never took me up on my offer (an offer I only made, of course, when I was trailing), but we can all appreciate and sympathize and lament the feeling of being dealt such poor cards, and at times, we have all had that feeling that it's simply not fair. The truth is, however, Cribbage consists of repeatedly getting many difficult card arrangements, because let's face it: there are only a few ways to get points in "This Game of Ours":

Fifteens, PAIRS, Runs, a FLUSH, Nibs & Knobs, Heels and Knaves, Ghosts and Goblins; and during the Pegging, a Thirty-One or a "go," and we're aghast to discover that these are among the only ways to score in Cribbage! And cards such as (2 4 6 8 T Q) are the Epitome, and are the Beavis & Butt-head, of NOT Scoring! Heh-Heh-Heh. 🚶🏼‍♂️ 🚶🏼‍♀️

But there are benefits to studying and examining and learning about such pitiful cards, and while it may indeed be an ugly assortment, there are still ways to go about maximizing the outcome of having been dealt such pure, unadulterated rubbish, and yes, even when we start with six cards that total Nothing-at-All!

Maybe it's not readily apparent that after Toss (2 8), if we Keep (4 6 T Q), this can become Nine Points after Four 5 Card Cuts (5555), and that this will therefore occur 4/46 equals 0.087 or nearly 9% of the time. Or we might not find it readily apparent that after Toss (T Q), if we Keep (2 4 6 8), this can become Seven Points after a hearty Dozen Cuts (3333, 5555, 7777), and that this will therefore occur 12/46 equals 0.261 or about 26% of the time. That's not too awful, after all.

We probably suspect that Toss (6 Q) is the safest among the "6 choose 2" or all fifteen Unique Pone Discards, and our suspicion is confirmed when we look up the information and find that indeed, Toss (6 Q) has a Crib Value of about 4.22 Points (Schell). And we may also already know that Toss (T Q), which has a Crib Value of about 4.61 Points (Schell), is safer than Toss (2 8), which has a Crib Value of about 4.94 Points (Schell). We can intuit a lot about this arrangement, yet many players will admit that they spend a lot less effort when on the receiving end of having been dealt such dismal cards.

If we Toss (6 Q) and Keep (2 4 8 T), now we have another way to obtain Seven Points after Four Cuts (3333), and who would have initially guessed that in Second Place among outcomes, we have the Lowly 9 Card, or Four Cuts (9999) that yield Five Points! And so on. Rather than do this with words, let's generate a Hand Mapping of three or four Main Ideas today, and add this assignment into the category of "The Most Effort Ever Recorded and Having Been Spent upon Analysis of the Zero-Point Cribbage Assortment of 2-4-6-8-T-Q"! He who laughs last (didn't get the joke).

* * * ☕ 🍪 💐 * * *

Idea 1) Keep Lower-Ranking Cards Idea: Keep (2 4 6 8) and Toss (T Q)

Expected Hand Average is 140 DIV 46 = 3.043
(minus) Expected Crib Value (Schell) is 4.610
Total is -1.567

12x07=084 - 3333, 5555, 7777 (Maximum Hand, 12 cuts = 7 Points)
08x04=032 - AAAA, 9999 (20 cuts >= 4 Points)
12x02=024 - 222, 444, 666, 888 (32 cuts >= 2 Points)
14x00=000 - TTT, JJJJ, QQQ, KKKK (Minimum Hand, 14 Cuts = 0 Points)
46 ___ 140

* * * ☕ 🍪 💐 * * *

Idea 2) Safest Crib Idea: Keep (2 4 8 T) and Toss (6 Q)

Expected Hand Average is 112 DIV 46 = 2.435
(minus) Expected Crib Value (Schell) is 4.220
Total is -1.785

04x07=028 - 3333 (Maximum Hand, 4 cuts = 7 Points)
04x05=020 - 9999 (8 cuts >= 5 Points)
08x04=032 - AAAA, 5555 (16 cuts >= 4 Points)
16x02=032 - 222, 444, 7777, 888, TTT (32 cuts >= 2 Points)
14x00=000 - 666, JJJJ, QQQ, KKKK (Minimum Hand, 14 Cuts = 0 Points)
46 ___ 112

* * * ☕ 🍪 💐 * * *

Idea 3) Alternative Hand Idea: Keep (2 4 6 T) and Toss (8 Q)

Expected Hand Average is 112 DIV 46 = 2.435
(minus) Expected Crib Value (Schell) is 4.310
Total is -1.875

08x07=056 - 3333, 5555 (Maximum Hand, 8 cuts = 7 Points)
04x04=016 - 9999 (12 cuts >= 4 Points)
20x02=040 - AAAA, 222, 444, 666, 7777, TTT (32 cuts >= 2 Points)
14x00=000 - 888, JJJJ, QQQ, KKKK (Minimum Hand, 14 Cuts = 0 Points)
46 ___ 112

* * * ☕ 🍪 💐 * * *

Idea 4) Maximum Possible Hand Idea: Keep (4 6 T Q) and Toss (2 8)

Expected Hand Average is 96 DIV 46 = 2.087
(minus) Expected Crib Value (Schell) is 4.940
Total is -2.853

04x09=036 - 5555 (Maximum Hand, 4 cuts = 9 Points)
04x04=016 - AAAA (8 cuts >= 4 Points)
04x03=012 - JJJJ (12 cuts >= 3 Points)
16x02=032 - 444, 666, 9999, TTT, QQQ (28 cuts >= 2 Points)
18x00=000 - 222, 3333, 7777, 888, KKKK (Minimum Hand, 18 Cuts = 0 Points)
46 ___ 096

* * * ☕ 🍪 💐 * * *

That is perhaps the most time ever spent on such a "lame" hand! 🕘

But when we are reading this, we may disagree about what I said earlier about this not being "readily apparent," because as far as the examination of Cribbage Hands go, this specimen is actually quite easy to study. But let me address a deeper issue: Those "easy" calculations will often surprise some players, and if we're being honest here, many will admit: "I was a little bit unaware of what those figures were for these cards." With such terrible cards, does it really matter?

The question is "Why?" Why is such an easy arrangement of cards not well understood? And the answer that I am proposing probably won't surprise anyone: "These are Terrible Cards, and who wants to waste valuable time and energy studying such a Garbage Hand?! Just discard already, because it probably doesn't even matter what we do," as we pout and sigh in frustration. But we need to fight the frustration that sometimes comes with "awful" cards. The key takeaway is: Don't become discouraged! ☕ 🍩 🍨

If we devote as much energy on examining what we often call "bad cards," this will be rewarded in our game statistics, because an extra point gained when holding "bad" cards is worth the same as an extra point gained when holding "great" cards. Don't ignore weak hands!

If our Opponent were not already "In the Zone" and let's say the score was (100-90*), we might seek those Nine Points and start out strong with our most Offensive Hand, but when this idea is fraught with too much inherent risk, we sometimes like to 'pull in the reins' and instead take on a more Defensive Posture. I think this may be the case here with Toss (2 8) being too dangerous, and just because it's our only way to obtain Nine Points after a 5 Card Cut, it doesn't quite seem worth the awkwardness of Toss (2 8).

I think Toss (6 Q) does everything as well or better than Toss (8 Q), which seems like the "always wanting to be different" player's equivalent of Toss (6 Q)! So, we are left to decide between our first two ideas, and we'll either Keep (2 4 6 8) and Toss (T Q), or we'll Keep (2 4 8 T) and Toss (6 Q). We called the Second Idea of Toss (6 Q) the most Defensive Discard, but (at least according to Schell), less than Four-Tenths of a Point separates this idea from Toss (T Q). But a weak Crib turned over by our Opponent here could WIN this game for us!

I think either of these first two ideas could be employed effectively as our first hand of the game, but here at (100-99*), I will opt for the SAFER idea, even though throwing our "Boat Anchors" via Toss (T Q) and Keep (2 4 6 8) has Twenty Cuts that yield Four Points or more, while (2 4 8 T) has just Sixteen Cuts that yield Four Points or more. We really need to "Spike that Crib" here, so let's do it!

Let's think of Crib Safety and Toss (6 Q) today. After the Trey Cut, we now have Seven Points in our Hand. Let's lead the 4 Card from the middle of our bunch, and try to "diffuse" this situation and prevent the Dealer from pegging. If the Dealer is holding (A A 4 T) today, we will probably be out-pegged by a Seven-to-Zip margin, whether we lead the 4 Card or the Ten "T" Card. But I'm a purest, so I'll stick with leading the 4 Card! 🎯

After our 4 Card Lead, if the Dealer:

Plays an Ace, (Which He Won't; but if he does), gobble (15-2) with our Ten "T" Card;

Plays a Deuce, respond with our 8 Card, as the Dealer likely has an Ace and perhaps another Deuce;

Plays a Trey, respond with our 8 Card for (15-2);

PAIRS our 4, 5, or 6 Card, respond with our Ten "T" Card to further diffuse our hand and avoid any Runs;

Plays a 7 Card, respond with our Deuce (only another Deuce can now score);

Plays an 8 Card, respond with our 8 Card for (20-2), although it may be a setup;

Plays a 9 Card, respond with our Deuce for (15-2);

Plays a Ten "T" Card, respond and PAIR it with our Ten "T" Card;

Plays a Jack, Queen, or King, respond with our Deuce, and make it more difficult for the Dealer to set up at a Count of just over Twenty-One, as well as get rid of what is now our Lone Small Card, a real liability.

* * * ☕ 🍪 💐 * * *

A few instructive example playouts:

(100-99*) (2c 4d 6h 8h Tc Qs) July 30, 2025 by Mrkatz1943.

(100-99*) (2c 4d 8h Tc) (6h Qs) vs (Ah 4s Qd Qc) (3h Kh) 3s
4 [4] 4 [8=2] 8 [16] Q [26] 2 [28] A [29=1], T [10] Q [20=1], (100-103*).
Pone 7, Dealer 6, Crib 2, (107-111*).

(107*-111) (4h 4c 8d 8c) (9c Qd) vs (9h Td Jc Qs) (2s 6h) Kh
8 [8] Q [18] 4 [22] 9 [31=2], 4 [4] T [14] 8 [22-1], J [10=1], (110*-112).
Pone 4, Dealer 5, Crib 2, (117*-116).

(117-116*) (4s 6h 6c 9h) (7h 7c) vs (3c 6d 7s Th) (Jh Qs) Qd
6 [6] 6 [12=2] 6 [18-6], (121-118*). Pone Pegged Out! We WIN!
Pone 6, Dealer 0, Crib 4, (121-118*). Hands and Crib not tallied.

* * * ☕ 🍪 💐 * * *

(100-99*) (2c 4d 8h Tc) (6h Qs) vs (5d 6c 9c Qh) (2d 3d) 2s
4 [4] 9 [13] 2 [15-2] Q [25] "go" 6 [31=2], 8 [81] 5 [13] T [23-1], (103-101*).
Pone 2, Dealer 4, Crib 6, (105-111*).

(105*-111) (As 2d 3s 3c) (5d 9s) vs (4d 6d 7d Kd) (Ah 2s) 5h
3 [3] 7 [10] 2 [12] K [22] 3 [25] 6 [31=2], A [1] 4 [5=1], (108*-111).
Pone 8, Dealer 12, Crib 6, (121*-119). That's how it's done!

* * * 🍹 🍪 🌿 * * *

Wordle 1,502 3/6 (struck 'solve in three' gold once again with bold guesswork)

🟨⬛🟨⬛⬛
⬛🟨🟩⬛🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

Wednesday 3:21 AM

Almost no chance to get close to go out, so we opt to balk their crib the best we can while also leaving us good cards for defensive pegging. Lead the 4.

Cribbage Pro Daily Scrimmage *Spoiler*
Score: 121 to 111

Discards:
1. 2-J
2. 3-T
3. 2-9
4. A-3
5. 7-Q 68-59*
6. 3-9
7. 7-T 101-87*
8. Q-Q 117*-111

Wordle 1,502 5/6

⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜
⬜🟨⬜⬜⬜
🟨⬜🟨⬜⬜
🟩⬜🟨🟨🟨
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

Wednesday 3:22 AM

Yoda (Al Miller) used to say that a 0 hand in some cases is okay. Just don't give the dealer anything. Hence the Q8. The 2 is the biggest liability, so I lead it.

Wednesday 4:35 AM

I went a tad wider 6-10. The two lead is more likely to be a safe lead, if they pair it they probably hit their hand. dec

Wednesday 4:39 AM

Nothing in our hand. TossQ-6 and it does same to crib

Wednesday 4:41 AM

We can hope Dealer has a poorish hand and that we can live until we are Pone again, but that will take some doing since Dealer is slightly beyond his positional hole (96). The Queen is certainly being pitched, but is her partner the 6, 8 or Ten? I will keep the best pegging hand which also happens to have the best hand potential.

Wednesday 5:17 AM

I gave the bookends today. Unfortunately, that could bode poorly for me with the 3 cut 🫤

Cribbage Pro Scrimmage
30th Jul 2025
🏆Score: 121 to 102
🌋SP: 1845
📅Streak: 215

Wednesday 5:24 AM

No hold and cut puts us anywhere close to going out, so max defense with 6Q.

Wednesday 5:32 AM

At this board position, i want to toss a balk and play for a favorable cut . So 10-Q is on Ras’s lowest avg. balk list and only 14 total cut cards miss.

https://www.cribbage.org/NewSite/tips/rasmussen7.asp

Wednesday 7:05 AM

Ditto

Wednesday 7:09 AM

What Dan said. All defense no pegging.Get rid of the 2 on the lead so it doesn't get trapped at the top.

Wednesday 7:45 AM

2, 4, 6, 8 …. Who do we appreciate? A three cut for seven!

Wednesday 8:29 AM

Everything helps but the face cards, plus peggers. Where is an ugly flush when I need it?

Wednesday 8:38 AM

I'm drinking the "Dan's" tea today.

Wednesday 9:12 AM

Q-6 close 2nd place

Wednesday 11:58 AM

At 100-99* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total_____W1 %____W2 %
2-4-8-10___2.43+1.61+(-4.21)=(-0.17)___0.0_____14.9
2-4-6-8____3.04+1.61+(-4.87)=(-0.22)___0.0_____14.4
2-4-6-10___2.43+1.59+(-4.29)=(-0.27)___0.0_____14.3

Offense________L1 %____L2 %
2-4-8-10_________7.5____63.9
2-4-6-8_________12.2____67.0
2-4-6-10_________7.9____64.9

2-4-8-10 is best for expected averages by 0.05pt. and is very slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 6-Q to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll lead the 8 and play Defense:

Lead_______________Dealer's Pegging Points___Loss %
2__________________________(-2.07)____________1.9
4__________________________(-2.16)____________1.8
8__________________________(-2.78)____________1.3
10_________________________(-2.83)____________2.2

Although the 2 lead is lowest for Dealer's Pegging Points the 8 lead is lowest for Loss %s.

Wednesday 1:47 PM

Another Two Playout Examples to Study on a Sizzling 🥓 🌞 Hot Summer Night:

(100-99*) (2c 4d 8h Tc) (6h Qs) vs (Js Qd Qc Kh) (8d Jd) 4h
4 [4] Q [14] 2 [16] K [26=1], 8 [8] Q [18] T [28-1], J [10=1], (101-101*).
Pone 2, Dealer 8, Crib 0, (103-109*). We 'stuck it' to Dealer' Crib. 😵

(103*-109) (4c 6h 6c Jh) (Q K) vs (As 7s Ts Js) (6s 6d) Tc
6 [6] T [16] 6 [22] 7 [29] "go" A [30=1], 4 [4] J [14] J [24-3], (104*-112).
Pone 2, Dealer 6, Crib 2, (112*-114). Looks like One More Deal is in order!

(112-114*) (As Ad 4s Qh) (9h Qc) vs (5c 9d Jh Jd) (Ac 4c) Kh
4 [4] J [14] A [15-2] J [25] A [26] 5 [31=2], Q [10] 9 [19=1], (114-117*).
Since we pegged Two Holes, 65% of all Cut Cards WIN when we tally First Hand Show. 🎳
Pone 10, Dealer 9, Crib 4, (121-117*).
We WIN! Dealer never gets to tally Hand nor Crib.

* * * ☕ 🍪 💐 * * *

(100-99*) (2c 4d 8h Tc) (6h Qs) vs (6s Th Js Qh) (3d 3c) Ks
8! [8] J [18] T [28] "go" 2 [30-1], T [10] 4 [14] Q [24] 6 [30=1], (101-100*).
In homage to Halscrib, let's give the 8 Card Lead its Due! We reeled in a Jack Fish!
Pone 0, Dealer 5, Crib 2, (101-107*).
After each pegged One Hole, we reeled in Zero Points for our Hand as Pone. 🎣

(101*-107) (4c 5h 6c 9h) (8d Ts) vs (As Ah 4h Jd) (5c 7d) Js
9 [9] J [19] 6 [25] 4 [29] "go" A [30] A [31=4], 5 [5] 4 [9-1], (107*-108).
Don't forget to take "Two for Her High Heels!"
Pone 9, Dealer 12, Crib 6, (121*-117). The Jack Cut Doubled Our Fun! 🥓

Wednesday 3:01 PM

Feel like I rather goofed this one. I threw 2 Q because I was terrified of the 10 Q combo to pone's crib and liked all the improvements that were on the table for 4 6 8 10, and it left some pegging flexibility.

It never even occurred to me to throw 6 Q, and 2 Q seemed safe enough for pone crib. The 3 cut of course was terrible. If I had thought more I'd have realized that 10 Q isn't as dangerous a toss given that pone is unlikely to throw a J to his/her crib, and 2 4 6 8 has excellent improvements and playability. I still think, reading everyone's comments, that I'd have gone 10 Q for toss if I'd thought about it more. I absolutely see the merit in 6 Q though. Really difficult to decide. This is what I get for neglecting Hand of the Day for a couple of weeks ;-;