October 6, 2025
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2% 2% | |||||
0% 0% | |||||
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| Total votes: 312 | |||||
| Hawthorn | A Cribbage Pro Daily Scrimmage hand. Would you risk throwing the 6-6 at this score? |
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Joined: April 2011 (4539 votes) Monday 3:02 AM
Full speed ahead. |
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Joined: June 2013 (4445 votes) Monday 3:21 AM
I'll risk it, but K-6 does have appeal.
2-Q, 2-8, J-Q, 8-K, 6-Q, 7-10, 10-J, 8-10 was not a successful selection for me on Cribbage Pro this morning. Wordle 1,570 5/6 ⬛🟨⬛⬛🟨 ⬛🟨🟨⬛⬛ 🟩⬛⬛🟨⬛ 🟩⬛🟩🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 |
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Joined: May 2021 (397 votes) Monday 3:32 AM
6s over the board at this juncture are a bridge too far for me. Gets help from 9/13 ranks pushing us to 97+. Also, the alternative of keeping 5KKK(5XXX) the most predictable pegger is a recipe for disaster in the pegging. Lead the K(h).
A sneaky alternative for today's hand would the K-K discard, and I'm curious if any of the more seasoned vets will present it as it improves on 10/13 ranks. Daily Scrimmage Score: 121 to 113 Hand 4 discard will determine success/failure in today's scrimmage imo. It's a good day to be aggressive (as most days are). I think there's a lesson in pegging hand 6 that truly nuanced players will do better than I did today. (Or maybe it's just the unlucky nature of low-card hand vs low-card hand, I haven't decided yet) tevdodd says: I'd like to get DCH input on the pegging of hand 6. We're 82-50* and holding A233. Opponent is holding 2334. How do you see the play out? tevdodd says: I'd appreciate DCH input on pegging hand 6. 50-82* As pone we hold A233. Dealer is holding 2334. How do you see the playout? james500 says: Hi. For what it's worth, hand 6 went like this for me: 3(3)-3(6/2)-3(9/6)-3(12/12)-A(13)-2(15/5)-2(17/2)-4(21/1). I got outpegged 20 to 8! tevdodd says: I played it out the same as you, just curious if there's someone who leads differently, or plays away from the pair royal in this spot. tevdodd says: A little clean-up here. 10/13 ranks get us to 97 if we held 566K. 9/13 get us to 99 with my selected hold, every cut gets us to 97. fentesk says: I ended up not playing the third 3 on hand 6, but that was solely based on who my opponent was at that score. In general I assume I'd go for a skunk and take the 6 points, but being Daily Scrimmage I felt there was a better than 50:50 chance they held the last 3 and I didn't want them getting back in the game. It didn't help as in the end I only got to 120 before they unloaded the rest of their points to take me down. I lost the pegging of that hand 5 to 10 and needed one more point somewhere. If not playing Daily Scrimmage, I think the right play is taking the six points and the ~2.3% chance they have the 3. fentesk says: I also kept 5-6-K-K today, but as the above shows, that may hurt your cause more than help it! tevdodd says: I'm completely floored how small this island is today. If we were at 96, or opp was at 81 it's a different story, but that's not the puzzle presented today. MarktheShark says: Late to the island, but I am also here. Eolus619 says: Hello…you who kept 5-6-K-K could easily be right ….my thinking was ..when dealing …for every point you are above 97 you improve your chance of winning by 4%..so starting with 12 ..i have increased my chance to win by 24% …the starter card will determine who had the best idea for THIS hand ..all the best tevdodd says: Just curious, Eolus, do you think your chance of winning this game increased with the 5 cut? Eolus619 says: Hi tevdodd….the five cut now has me with 20 points in my hand…pegging points yet to be determined..so now I am dealing & counting 2nd from at least 111..so my answer is yes…although a pair of 4s 7s or 9s sent by the dealer would obviously be a problem ….9s seem to be quite rare though imo ..JQT was often an advocate of patience..extend the game … in situations like this ..it would be nice to have his input…hope he is ok…🤞he starts posting again soon. fentesk says: The way I approached this was, if the score was 91-96*, I'm pretty sure the right play is to stall with the K-6. If one agrees with that (and I fully accept others may still send the 6-6), what point total for dealer does that change and I'd toss 6-6? 94? 92? 90? I don't know the answer, but I decided it was a value lower than 89*. The same approach could be taken for non-dealer, how far below 94-96 would I keep the 12. Almost certainly at 82 for me, probably 85, but for me, not 91. I did not do a more detailed analysis beyond this today. I feel my questions are correct, but I'm intrigued by others' answers. Eolus619 says: Hi fentesk…I think Ras would applaud any player who is asking the questions you have asked yourself .. Eolus619 says: I certainly will be wrong today if 6-6 discard becomes part of hand + crib + pegging that totals 22 points |
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Joined: March 2016 (2317 votes) Monday 3:44 AM
Holding 5KKK, we start with 12 points. Sixteen cuts increase hand from 14 - 20 points. |
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Joined: August 2023 (247 votes) Monday 3:54 AM
6-6 may have risk, but not time to hold back. |
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Joined: March 2008 (6270 votes) Monday 4:22 AM
Damn the torpedoes! |
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Joined: February 2020 (1305 votes) Monday 4:38 AM
I want to be as far past hole 96 has possible when I get the deck back |
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Joined: June 2020 (1862 votes) Monday 4:44 AM
Schell’s yellow zone guides me today.. “what I call the yellow zone (the ten hole range that begins at a positional hole, in this case 96*–105* inclusive). The significance of this is that you are a favorite to go out in two counts as dealer, and probably won't need to count your hand as pone on the following deal. This denies your opponent the opportunity to peg out as dealer on the last hand, an advantage that is generally worth sacrificing a couple of points for elsewhere on the board” Inushtuk1 says: Hi my friend Bruce. Can you please tell me where Schell talks about the yellow zone on his Cribbage Forum. I just want to get a little more context. It seems like he is merely saying what you said to tevdodd, and MartheShark; about every point you are dealing above 97, your chances to win increases by about 4%. Or is there much more to it than that? Eolus619 says: Hi… Mike..here is the cribbage forum link..open..scroll down aways to the paragraph segment that starts ..”If tossing 2-2 in this position seems reckless, consider the following:
http://www.cribbageforum.com/Mailbag5.htm |
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Joined: April 2008 (6956 votes) Monday 5:00 AM
If both were ten more on the board I would consider a four to six point reduction. I do not want to second guess if I would have needed those points for an easier next hand decision. dec |
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Joined: June 2025 (111 votes) Monday 5:03 AM
66 risk into the crib, and the 5 cut . . so now I know that dealer tossed 44 . . (after keeping xxxx double run to boot) |
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Joined: January 2025 (249 votes) Monday 6:28 AM
Let's ignore the bingo and not confuse tactics with strategy. It almost doesn't matter that we score more than 12 on this hand.
The question is: does the real risk of staying at 95 by tossing K6 justify giving up an almost guaranteed win IF the dealer doesn't have bingo? ie, are we contributing 7 points over par to the dealer by tossing 66? I mean, we could be inviting disaster. And the 56KK could squeak a couple of points pegging regardless of cut card. Still, here, this takes pretty much all question about if we will go out next hand. Lets go for it. |
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Assman
Joined: May 2024 (537 votes) Monday 6:40 AM
Fortune favors the bold. |
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Joined: March 2020 (1337 votes) Monday 6:48 AM
No doubt! |
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Joined: July 2017 (779 votes) Monday 7:20 AM
Sorry......uh, what was the question? |
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Joined: August 2025 (55 votes) Monday 7:25 AM
Our goal at this time is getting to hole 105 for dealer’s average 16 point takeoff. With the keep we’ll get at least 103 and with any X cut it’ll be 105. We can afford to drop the two 6s to opponent’s crib as they are behind the 95 position hole. All logic out the door when we cut a 5 for the win!
Cribbage Pro Scrimmage 6th Oct 2025 🏆Score: 121 to 116 🌋SP: 1495 📅Streak: 294 https://www.cribbagepro.net/scrimmage/632/7389935/1 BennieO says: To clarify, not the win for the game but win for the round with max hand score. Caution must continue to be exercised because now opponent’s crib holds at least 5-6-6. Hyper defense for the next round. |
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Joined: September 2013 (4004 votes) Monday 8:10 AM
I see I just hit 4000 votes!
I don't know anybody on this board personally, but y'all are still some of my favorite people! Today I'm pressing the gas and aiming for at least 14+ points. Also a bit worried that OPP put a 4 or 7 in their crib... Last time I posted a hand was August 10, 2016. I wanted to share that interesting discussion and remember some great people: https://dailycribbagehand.org/show.php?date=2016-08-10 tevdodd says: Good puzzle. Similar to today I would've been on an island of 3, but Hal justified it as the highest peg out %. james500 says: Hello, hope you had a pleasant weekend. (1) Congratulations on reaching the milestone of 4000 votes, over 10 years in the making. (2) Thank you for providing the link to your previous submission. I enjoyed re-reading the conversation, and, "hearing", from people who are now sadly absent. I did in fact take up JQT and David Aiken's very generous offer, and am registered as the 10th person from England, (am impressed by CribbageInTheCounties's #1 in China!) I need to get a new laptop so I can play the ECribbage Saturday ACC tournaments again. I've been Android only for a few years now. ILostMyJob says: Hi James500 -- that was the day I joined the ACC as well. I appreciate the note! |
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Joined: January 2024 (600 votes) Monday 8:33 AM
Almost on an island today. Positionally (91-89*), we wanted to be at (86-96*). So, we can afford to play some defense and still maintain our chances to peg out as Pone next time. The question is "should we play defense here?". Since we can afford to, I say yes. Without the cut, we will next be at 97+* and dealing. scottcrib says: I'll gladly join you on this atoll today. |
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Joined: January 2023 (981 votes) Monday 10:14 AM
Thanks for your comments, everyone. I threw K6 in the game and ended up winning by a single point! |
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Joined: July 2016 (1883 votes) Monday 10:55 AM
I do agree with dec above, that if we were both 10 points further up the board, that a 6 point reduction would definitely be in order. Defense to the lead, after seeing that 5 on the deck. Inushtuk1 says: Oops. I'm Pone. Lead the Ks |
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Joined: February 2008 (5798 votes) Monday 11:16 AM
At 91-89* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
________________Dlr's Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total___W1 %___W2 % 5-K-K-K____13.22+(-2.72)+(-6.86)=3.64____0.0____40.1 5-6-K-K*____8.00+(-2.52)+(-3.66)=1.82____0.0____21.1 Defense______L1 %___L2 % 5-K-K-K_______1.2____22.4 5-6-K-K*______0.1____11.2 * unsuited 6-K 5-K-K-K is better for expected averages by 1.82pts. and is very much better for Win %s. Although it's much worse for Loss %s I'll select an unsuited 6-K. After the 5 cut I'll lead a K and play Defense: Lead_____________Dealer's Pegging Points K_______________________(-2.23) 5_______________________(-3.15) Hawthorn says: Many thanks for the stats, as ever. It would be interesting to see the W3% considering that about two thirds of games with the 56KK are predicted to go to W3. Eolus619 says: Hal…your card “display ” is 5-K-K-K… fentesk says: I think the typo is that they'll actually select 6-6 to crib, then everything else would fall into place (and they don't show a 6 lead in pegging). I'd also be really interested in W3 values, but I'd guess those are considered in the choice, even if not mentioned explicitly. HalscribCLX says: Apologies. The discard should be 6-6 fentesk says: Thanks for all your great work! |
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Joined: December 2023 (370 votes) Monday 11:24 AM
Pat 12 which just turned into 20? No brainer for me.
Cribbage Pro Scrimmage 6th Oct 2025 🏆Score: 121 to 108 🌋SP: 1675 📅Streak: 5 https://www.cribbagepro.net/scrimmage/632/8363472/1 |
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